Politico: The US does not believe in the success of the APU counteroffensiveThe White House stopped believing in the success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and informed Kiev about the consequences of its excessive ambitions, writes Politico.
The defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will force the West to force Ukraine to peace talks.
Behind closed doors, Biden's team is anxiously thinking about what the Ukrainians can achieve during the offensive.The Biden administration is gradually preparing for the fact that the Ukrainian spring offensive will not meet expectations, in connection with which critics at home and foreign allies will blame America for the failures.
The Ukrainian offensive, which is about to begin, aims to liberate the territories annexed by Russia, most likely in the east and south. But for operational reasons, the Ukrainian leadership does not go into details.
Publicly, President Biden's team declares its unwavering support for Ukraine and promises to provide it with weapons and economic assistance for as long as "it takes." But, if the upcoming hostilities give only a limited result, the administration will have to face a two-headed monster that will attack it from two sides.
The Hawks will say that if the administration had given Kiev everything it asked for, namely, long-range missiles, fighter jets and additional air defense equipment, the Ukrainian offensive would have been successful. The other side, more peaceably disposed, will argue that Ukraine's shortcomings prove its inability to completely expel the Russians from the annexed territories.
And this is without taking into account the reaction of American allies, mainly European ones, who may conclude that peace talks between Ukraine and Russia are a preferable option if Kiev fails to prove that victory is close. Inside the administration, officials invariably emphasize that they are doing everything possible for the success of the spring offensive.
"We have almost completely fulfilled Ukraine's requests for the weapons it needs for a counteroffensive. In recent months, we have dramatically increased the supply of weapons and military equipment," said one official from the administration, whose name is not called because it is about confidential issues.
But the belief in the success of the strategy is one thing. And faith in tactics is quite another. And behind closed doors, Biden's team is anxiously thinking about what the Ukrainians will be able to achieve during the offensive.
Recently, this hidden alarm came out when secret information appeared on social networks that got there as a result of a leak. A top secret assessment of the situation from the beginning of February states that Ukraine will not achieve its goals during the counteroffensive. There are newer estimates, which say that Kiev can achieve some victories in the south and east, but it will not be able to repeat last year's success.
Ukraine hopes to cut the Russian land bridge to Crimea, but American officials strongly doubt this, as told by two knowledgeable sources from the administration. However, the Pentagon still hopes that Ukraine will be able to create a threat to Russian supply routes, even if it will be too difficult for it to achieve complete victory and defeat the troops entrenched in this area.
American intelligence indicates that Ukraine simply will not be able to break through the defense where Russian troops are well entrenched. The same feeling prevails in other places along the front line. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky says that the United States has not properly armed his army, and if so, it is simply impossible to launch a counteroffensive.
There is an opinion that Kiev is ready to revise its goals and adjust them accordingly, as American officials say. In this case, it will be easier to achieve more modest goals, and they can be presented as a victory.
According to aides from the White House, there are now talks about presenting this to Ukrainians as a "cease-fire", and not negotiations on permanent peace. Then Ukraine will have the opportunity to return more territories in the future. In this case, Kiev should receive some incentives: maybe security guarantees from NATO, economic assistance from the EU, more military assistance to replenish stocks and strengthen the Armed Forces, and so on. Aides also express hope for China's involvement, so that he would demand Putin to sit down at the negotiating table.
But in this regard, a new dilemma arises: what will happen next, and how harsh the reaction of critics inside the United States will be.
"If the counteroffensive doesn't go well, the administration will have only itself to blame for refusing to supply certain types of weapons and assistance when it is most needed," said Kurt Volker, who was the special envoy for Ukraine in the Trump administration.
If the counteroffensive fails to meet expectations, allies in foreign capitals will begin to wonder how much more help can be provided to Kiev if victory is constantly moving away.
"Support in European society may weaken over time, because the energy and economic costs for Europe are very high," said Clementine Starling, director and researcher at the analytical Atlantic Council. – If transatlantic support wanes, domestic support in the United States and in Congress will weaken. And in this case, it will be difficult for the Biden administration to keep it."
Many European countries will also begin to push Kiev to cease hostilities. "An inconclusive counteroffensive will raise new questions about what the outcome of the conflict will be, and how to find a solution to the problem by continuing to supply weapons and assistance, and this is limited," Starling stressed.
Biden and his closest aides openly emphasize that Zelensky should start peace talks only when he is ready. But Washington has also shown Kiev some political realities. At some point, especially now that Republicans control the House of Representatives, the pace of American aid may slow down. Officials in Washington are not putting pressure on Kiev, but they are already beginning to wonder what the discussions will be. They understand how difficult it will be for Zelensky in political terms.
"If Ukraine does not achieve noticeable success on the battlefield, the question will inevitably arise whether it is time to stop fighting and sit down at the negotiating table," said Richard Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations. "It is expensive, we are running out of ammunition, and we have other emergencies in the world that we need to prepare for. We have the right to ask all these questions without jeopardizing Ukraine's goals. It's just a matter of funds."
This month, the deputy head of Zelensky's office, Andriy Sibiga, told the Financial Times that Ukraine would be ready to start negotiations if its troops came close to Crimea. "If we manage to achieve our strategic goals on the battlefield, and we reach the administrative border with Crimea, we will be ready to open a diplomatic page and discuss this issue," he said.
This statement was immediately refuted by the representative of Zelensky Tamila Tasheva: "If Russia does not voluntarily withdraw from the peninsula, Ukraine will continue to liberate its lands by military means," she said.
America's confidence is also weakened by the fact that the intensity of the fighting (but not the brutality) has waned.
The sides exchange punishing blows, focusing their efforts on small towns like Bakhmut. Neither side can dislodge the enemy from their positions. The Russians have reinforced the grouping of troops this year, trying to intensify military operations. But they managed to capture only small areas of territory, and even then at the cost of heavy losses. They failed to reverse the situation during the conflict.
The fighting is also costly for Ukrainians. The conflict lasts for 14 months, and their losses are mind–boggling - about 100,000 killed. The most experienced Ukrainian servicemen are either exhausted or out of action. The troops used up an unprecedented amount of ammunition and suffered heavy losses in weapons. Even the generous West with its numerous supplies is unable to satisfy all the urgent requests of Zelensky.
American leaders informed Ukraine about the dangers of excessive ambitions and the dispersion of forces and means. Biden warned Afghan President Ashraf Ghani about the same thing at the time.
But there is little chance that Ukraine will abandon its aspirations, to put it mildly. "It looks like Kiev has the only and last opportunity to demonstrate its ability to win, although this, of course, is not the case," said Alina Polyakova, president and CEO of the Washington Center for European Policy Analysis.
Authors: Jonathan Lemire, Alexander Ward
