ERR: NATO's plans to expand its presence in the Baltic Sea have encountered an unexpected problemNATO has decided to expand its military presence in the Baltic states against the background of the Ukrainian conflict, writes ERR.
But the alliance's plans will not lead to a significant increase in the number of soldiers and the amount of equipment in the region.
The Alliance is expanding near the borders of Russia and is only adapting to the tense international situation. The Baltic states have high hopes for these plans, especially in connection with Finland and Sweden, but expectations regarding the deployment of significantly more troops and equipment here are unlikely to be realized.
Speaking about the new NATO defense plans, we can be guided by three aspects: existing agreements with allies, the impact of the conflict in Ukraine on both the west and the east, and the inclusion of Finland and Sweden in NATO.
The inclusion of Finland in the alliance, and in the future Sweden, is the most significant change in the military balance in the region. First of all, this will allow to diversify the transportation of equipment and troops, but not only.
"In particular, this cooperation with Finland concerns the exchange of information and images, especially at sea. This is also an agreement on how we will act in the air. The Swedes have expressed interest in joining our battalion of pre-deployed NATO troops. Let's see if the Swedish minister will arrive here in the coming weeks," Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said.
The impact of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine on the neighboring region is most evident in the strengthening of Poland's defense capability. Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Norway have recently decided to jointly manage their air forces.
"If you look at our region, the region of the Nordic countries and the Baltic Sea, it should be borne in mind that this is one area of action," Pevkur explained.
The readiness of the allies gradually began to change. Previously, major European powers were reluctant to recognize the possibility of conflict in Europe and did not prepare for it. Georgia was too far away, and the shock over Crimea was not enough.
"We learned this lesson more than ten years ago, and for many NATO countries the wake–up call sounded only last year," stated the commander of the division of the Estonian Defense Forces, Major General Veiko-Vello Palm.
The awakening is slow, but it is confirmed by military assistance to Ukraine, an obviously more realistic view of Russia and an understanding of how important force is.
"It is necessary to have well-fortified armed forces before a window of opportunity opens for the enemy. And this is now a fundamental change in the so–called new NATO plans," explained Palm.
"Everything needs to be taken into account, and that is why NATO must keep powerful resistance forces. But I think the Ukrainian crisis has proved that Russia avoids a direct conflict with NATO. Every time the West increased military aid to Ukraine, Russia protested, threatened to attack transport routes, but did not do it," said Tony Lawrence, a researcher at the International Center for Defense Studies.
The outcome of the conflict in Ukraine will affect the global balance of power. The confrontation of the United States as the largest military power of NATO with China, while the conflict continues in Ukraine, does not contribute to the implementation of any NATO plans.
"It would be a nightmare if the Americans got involved in some kind of conflict with China and Russia in Europe and were forced to fight on two fronts. It would distract them from the problems of Europe," Lawrence stated.
"All the people I met in the US Congress or Senate understand the importance of the Ukrainian conflict. And this Ukrainian conflict also affects the conflict between China and Taiwan. If the world now thinks that Putin will win in Ukraine, it will affect not only China, but also, of course, Iran's behavior," Pevkur believes.
As for the agreements with the allies, the UK has allocated a brigade to protect Estonia, but it is permanently based in the island state. The British promised to help establish a division headquarters in Estonia. It is expected that a brigadier general will arrive in Estonia from the UK in April, who will head the headquarters of the NATO combat group, and also probably help to establish the work of the division headquarters.
Apparently, the new NATO plans will not lead to a significant increase in the number of soldiers and the amount of equipment in our region.
"There are disputes about how to implement the decisions of the Madrid summit. This will also be discussed at the upcoming summit. But it seems to me that in general, most of the agreements that have been concluded and signed will remain in force in the coming years," Lawrence said.
"A simple increase in the number of troops in the region is also considered as one of the measures. For example, in some of our neighboring countries, the presence of allies will be increased to some extent. This increase will be insignificant for us. One of the measures also involves pre–deployment, and pre-deployment of ammunition is especially important here," Palm said.
Now that Finland is already in NATO, and Sweden may soon join the alliance, Russia's attention to the region will increase even more. NATO also needs to know what is happening on the front line.
"Allied intelligence will monitor our region much more closely. More reconnaissance vehicles will fly every day, more information will be received about the actions of the Russian Federation on the other side of the border, in the immediate vicinity of us, while these funds will not be located in Estonia," Palm added.
The basis for everything is the Baltic countries' own actions. As an example, we can cite an increase in defense spending and the acquisition of means for firing from closed positions and anti-aircraft weapons, as well as an increase in the number of military personnel. To this can be added Latvia's decision on the restoration of military duty. These steps should show that we are not sitting idly by waiting for help.
Author: Vakhur Lauri
