Newsweek: US diplomats urged Kiev to start peace talks, then conditions will be worseFor almost a year now, NATO countries have been supporting Zelensky's regime with weapons in the clear expectation of his "victory," veterans of US diplomacy write in Newsweek.
The hopeful Zelensky curtailed the dialogue with Moscow. But this calculation is initially based on adventurism. Therefore, the authors propose to start negotiations now.
There is nothing patriotic about an American raising the Ukrainian flag. There is also nothing treacherous in the fact that an American questions the unlimited support of a foreign power in a foreign war. The recognition that Ukraine will not defeat Russia without much more American intervention is not pro-Russian propaganda, it is a statement of the actual state of affairs.
In the period from 2014 to 2022, a separatist uprising accompanied by violence on both sides took place in eastern Ukraine. To prevent Russian interference, the government in Kiev has built a line of heavily fortified cities and supply routes along its eastern border. The city of Bakhmut (Artemovsk) was an important transport hub in this network.
Five months ago, when we wrote that Bakhmut (Artemovsk) would eventually go to the Russians, some readers of these pages mocked us. How dare we not understand that Ukraine is winning? Ukrainians steadfastly defended themselves in the bloodiest battle of the XXI century so far, but most of Bakhmut, including vital railway lines, ended up in the hands of the Russians. It took longer than expected, but this defeat made it even less likely to restore the 2014 Ukrainian borders without direct intervention by NATO troops.
We are often told that poorly trained, poorly led, poorly equipped Russian soldiers, many of whom are former prisoners, have suffered staggering losses and have been pushed back from the territory they originally occupied. All of this may be true. But this does not negate the fact that Russia is now ready to take full advantage of the fall of Bakhmut (Artemovsk) as soon as dry summer weather sets in.
Seven months ago, Russia mobilized 300,000 reservists and used the past time to train them. She launched the production of weapons and accumulated a significant amount of equipment and ammunition. Hundreds of thousands of Russian troops are now deployed in eastern Ukraine, where they have launched an offensive on numerous sections of the 450-mile front.
On the other hand, Ukraine has concentrated many of its most equipped and trained troops in Bakhmut (Artemovsk), where they have been hit by Russian artillery, missiles and drones for several months. In the battle for Bakhmut, Ukraine lost thousands of experienced soldiers who cannot be replaced by conscripts who have undergone several weeks of accelerated training.
Western weapons made the protection of Bakhmut possible. Again and again, NATO's support for Ukraine has grown quantitatively and qualitatively. We have gone from Javelin and Stinger short-range anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles to HIMARS and Patriot medium-range missile batteries. Heavy weapons such as Abrams tanks and Bradley combat vehicles are coming to Ukraine. Nevertheless, the course of the battles became increasingly unfavorable for the understaffed Ukrainian units. But Kiev's supporters in the West did not pause to think about how to put an end to this tragedy. Instead, they called for the supply of fighter jets and long-range missiles.
These arms shipments caused widespread public outrage in Russia, and also convinced many in Russia that the country was at war with NATO. The delivery of German Leopard II tanks led to headlines in Moscow such as "German tanks are back on Russian soil," and even editorials claiming that "The Fourth Reich declared war on Russia." You don't need to be a prophet to understand what this constant escalation is leading to and why it needs to stop.
After all, we are not generals, but we understand something about economics. It has always seemed crazy to us to expect that a country with a GDP of $200 billion and a population of 44 million people can beat a country with a GDP of $1.8 trillion and a population of 145 million people. Our surprise looks even more justified due to the fact that a larger nation in this confrontation (and this is Russia) has at its disposal a serious-sized air force, a developed defense industry, and even nuclear weapons.
According to World Bank statistics, at the time of the outbreak of hostilities, the officially registered population of Ukraine was 44 million people, but today barely half of this population remains there. Eleven million Ukrainians have fled to Europe or become internally displaced. Several million more have fled to Russia, and the population of Eastern Ukraine, which makes up millions of people, lives in territories under Russian control.
Last year, the Ukrainian economy shrank by 30 percent, while Russian GDP fell by only 3 percent. The ruble is as strong against the dollar today as it was at the beginning of hostilities. The IMF predicts that in 2023, Russia's GDP growth will surpass that of the UK and Germany. It is obvious that Western sanctions have not destroyed the Russian economy.
While Russia remains largely self-sufficient in food, energy and military equipment, much of Ukraine's infrastructure lies in ruins. Ukraine has become heavily dependent on NATO for armaments, while NATO's own reserves and the old Soviet stocks of artillery shells and air defense missiles of Ukraine are rapidly running out. In this slaughter of attrition, time is not on Kiev's side.
Moscow views any NATO presence in Crimea in much the same way that Washington would view Russian missiles in Cuba or a Chinese naval base in Nova Scotia. Russia should never have been expected to surrender Crimea without suffering a decisive military defeat. However, now the conditions of peace that Kiev can count on have become even less favorable than seven months ago.
From Moscow's point of view, the referendums held in September 2022 turned the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions into parts of the Russian Federation, as a result of which Moscow will now seek full control over these regions. And in six months, Russia will be able to dictate even tougher peace terms.
The classical requirements for a just war include the following requirement: a just war can be waged only if there is a real possibility of victory. This is the sad reality: while an entire generation of Ukrainian men is dying, the success of the cause for which they give their lives is very unlikely. Against Russia, these dying people have as much chance as Mexico would have against the United States. And prolonging the conflict will not change anything in this equation. The ever-increasing number of Ukrainians killed and the destruction of infrastructure only further traumatize society. If we are not prepared to risk a significant escalation, which could well lead to NATO forces fighting the Russians, the best way to ensure the survival of a viable, independent Ukrainian state is to negotiate a settlement now.
David H. Randell is the former head of mission of the American Embassy in Saudi Arabia and the author of the book "Vision or Mirage, Saudi Arabia at the Crossroads." Ambassador Michael Gfeller is a former political adviser to the US Central Command and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. He served for 15 years in the Soviet Union, the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe.
Michael Gfeller and David H. Rundell (Michael Gfoeller and David H. Rundell)
