MOSCOW, Apr 19 — RIA Novosti, Andrey Kotz. There is a relative lull on the line of contact. The fighting is local and is conducted mainly by artillery units. However, the APU is trying to move forward in several directions, which may indicate an imminent change in the situation.
The main enemy of the tank
Ukrainians are active where they used to sit on the defensive. Infantry assault groups supported by armored vehicles attacked in the area of Pavlovka and Nikolsky — settlements to the southwest and southeast of Ugledar.
But outside of residential development, they have become easy prey for Russian artillery and aviation.
Ukrainian servicemen of the Marine corps in a shelter in the town of Ugledar Image Source: © AP Photo / Evgeniy Maloletka
After many hours of fighting, they retreated to Ugledar, losing dozens of fighters, several tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. According to the military, helicopter pilots who hit armored vehicles with guided missiles especially distinguished themselves. An infrequent sight at the present time — usually combat vehicles are not substituted for aviation ATGMs.
Ugledar is one of the possible directions of the main or auxiliary strike of the APU. If successful, they will be able to reach Volnovakha and advance from there to the south — to the Azov coast.
"Kiev's task is to cut our land corridor to the Crimea and regain access to the Sea of Azov," explains an officer of the 1st Army Corps with the call sign Klim. — There is an opinion that it is easier to achieve this from the side of Ugledar than to break through all the defense lines in Zaporozhye. Therefore, field fortifications have been erected along the strategically important Donetsk—Mariupol highway in recent weeks."
However, a breakthrough to Mariupol, he believes, would be "primarily an image success." Even if the troops gain a foothold in the city, "they will be surrounded."
A few strokes
The situation is also difficult in the Artemovsky direction. According to the Ministry of Defense, all the northern regions are already under the control of Russian forces, and they have advanced in the suburbs.
However, the AFU grouping continues to be supplied — by dirt roads. Not without losses: everything is shot through there.
A fighter of the Wagner PMCs near the AFU fortification in the center of Artemovsk Image source: © RIA Novosti / Evgeny Biyatov
"I do not rule out that they will try to strike the main blow here in order to unblock the remnants of the Artemovsk garrison,— says Klim. — They will most likely beat at the joints of Wagner and the army. In the event of a breakthrough, the encirclement threatens our units already. Troops are being transferred from Slavyansk and Seversk. There may be several strokes. Apparently, simultaneous."
Perhaps, the military believes, the southern flank of the Svatovsky frontier, the Kremennaya — Rubezhnoye — Severodonetsk— Lisichansk quadrangle is being attacked from Seversk. The APU needs a springboard for further offensive deep into the region. Another likely direction is to Svatovo with a breakthrough to Starobilsk.
Here they are still cautious, limiting themselves to DRG sorties and reconnaissance by combat.
In this sector of the front, Russian troops are actively using kamikaze drones, and the APU is forced to pull artillery and equipment deep into the forest plantations. This increases the time for its deployment and transfer to other positions.
Waiting
Strike drones are also working intensively in the Zaporozhye region. Judging by the reports from the field, they are hitting military boats on the Dnieper.
In general, the fighting here is reduced to artillery duels and UAV raids. The APU continues shelling major cities, including Melitopol.
An employee of the Investigative Committee of Russia conducts investigative actions at a residential apartment building in Melitopol, damaged as a result of shelling by the Armed Forces of Ukraine Image source: © RIA Novosti
The Zaporozhye direction is considered the most convenient for the general offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Kiev has been concentrating forces in Mykolaiv, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia regions for several months. Recently, they have been probing the line of defense in the area of the settlement of Pologi, the capture of which allows you to get to Tokmak and a direct route to Melitopol. From there, the road opens to both Berdyansk and Genichesk. And the Crimea is just a stone's throw away.
Several powerful lines of defense interfere: anti-tank ditches, concrete and minefields, wire barriers. In addition, the terrain is flat. In such circumstances, dominance in the sky is crucial. Outside of urban development, field fortifications and the umbrella of a powerful air defense, infantry and equipment are an easy target for aviation.
However, it cannot be ruled out that a distracting blow will be struck here, and the main forces will be thrown to another site. Anyway, the Russian army had enough time to prepare for the meeting. No one doubts that the APU will make its move sooner or later at the front.
