Antiwar: it is becoming increasingly difficult for the US administration to brag about the effectiveness of sanctions It is becoming increasingly difficult for the US administration to brag about the success of sanctions against Russia, writes Antiwar.
Instead of becoming a success story, the American-led sanctions campaign against Moscow has become another example of chronically failed tactics, the author notes.
Ted CarpenterThe Joe Biden administration continues to brag about how successful international sanctions have been in punishing Russia for its special operation in Ukraine.
But this bluster is becoming increasingly hollow, both in terms of the degree of international unity and the effectiveness of sanctions. Instead of becoming a success story, the US-led campaign against the Kremlin is fast becoming another example of chronically failed tactics.
The administration's propaganda about broad global support relies mainly on two resolutions condemning Russia's actions, which were approved by the UN General Assembly — one in March 2022 and the other in February 2023. However, both resolutions were purely symbolic, ineffective measures. They did not oblige Member States to take any action. Nevertheless, more than a fifth of the UN members, including such key players as China, South Africa and India, did not succumb to Washington's pressure and voted "against" or abstained.
A more clear and meaningful evidence of the unwillingness of countries that are not yet in Washington's geopolitical orbit to join the crusade against Moscow is their refusal to impose economic sanctions. With the exception of the NATO bloc and long-standing US security partners in East Asia, there are almost no countries on the global map that have taken restrictive measures. This lack of support throughout the Middle East, Africa and Latin America is particularly striking.
Western sanctions have damaged the Russian economy, but they have proved to be clearly less effective than one might assume, listening to Washington's bragging. After a short-term, sharp fall, the ruble has become one of the strongest currencies at the international level. This was a mockery of President Biden's prediction that the Russian currency would soon collapse. Russia also remains a key export power both in terms of energy and food. The Kremlin has made notable progress in reorienting its exports from European markets to other regions. Most notably, it replaced Saudi Arabia for China as the largest source of oil and natural gas. Cooperation on this issue is just one of the signs of the emerging bilateral alliance between the Asian giants – this is the development of events, because of which American military planners do not sleep well at night.
The failure of the US-led strategy of economic sanctions against Russia should not be surprising. Such campaigns have long proven to be an ineffective tool of foreign policy. North Korea has not capitulated to Washington's demands, despite massive economic pressure since the mid-twentieth century. The US sanctions against Cuba, which have been in effect for the seventh decade, and against Iran, which have gone for the fifth decade, have led American politicians to a similar disappointment.
The seminal scientific work of Gary Hufbauer, Jeffrey Schott and Kimberly Ann Elliott, "The Revision of Economic Sanctions," documented that sanctions rarely achieved their political goals. Later editions of the book confirm this conclusion with even greater confidence. Sanctions cause inconvenience to the regime against which they are directed, and significant suffering to innocent people in this country, but rarely force the regime to capitulate or even make serious concessions. As Hufbauer, Schott and Elliott demonstrate, such a result is especially true when the issue at stake is a high priority for the country's political leadership.
The usual ineffectiveness of sanctions is a sufficient reason for rejecting such a policy option, but an even more compelling reason should be their widespread brutality. Unfortunately, American and other Western officials don't seem to be paying attention to this problem. The ongoing sanctions against Russia have undoubtedly harmed the owners of tourist shops in St. Petersburg, where cruise liners are now prohibited from stopping. However, how bringing a middle-aged matryoshka seller to bankruptcy should force Vladimir Putin to stop the special operation in Ukraine remains a mystery.
Undoubtedly, the most shocking example of insensitivity to the collateral damage caused by economic sanctions was a comment Madeleine Albright made in the mid-1990s. CBS "60 Minutes" reporter Lesley Stahl quoted reports that U.S.-led international sanctions against Iraq, which were still in effect years after the Gulf War, cost the lives of 500,000 Iraqi children. When Albright was asked if the policy was worth the price, she replied: "I think it's a very difficult choice, but the price–we think it's worth it." It was a shockingly heartless comment, but there is little evidence that Albright's successors in Republican or Democratic administrations have taken a more enlightened stance.
Continuing to impose economic sanctions that cause suffering to innocent civilians is a policy unworthy of a decent country. The United States and NATO need to abandon this course with regard to Russia and other objects of Washington's wrath.
