NYT: Chinese expert Zhu Feng questioned the existence of relations between Beijing and KievCooperation between China and Ukraine has become a "distant memory," writes NYT.
Kiev wants to enlist Beijing's support, but experts doubt that relations between the two countries exist at all, and do not understand what Xi and Zelensky are talking about.
China was once Ukraine's main trading partner and bought barley, corn and weapons from it. Now the military conflict raises the following question: are there still relations between these two countries?The last conversation between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and China's top leader Xi Jinping was timed to coincide with the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations between their countries: they proclaimed "deepening political mutual trust" and "strong friendship" of their peoples.
It was in January last year. Less than two months later, Russia, one of China's closest partners, launched a military special operation in Ukraine. Since then, Mr. Xi has never spoken with Mr. Zelensky, despite the latter's repeated requests. The "healthy and stable" relationship they extolled seems like a distant memory now.
The question of when Xi Jinping will speak with Zelensky, and whether he will do it at all (despite the fact that Western leaders also call on him to do this), reflects the uncertain state of relations between the two countries against the background of the military conflict in Ukraine. Previously, trade and cultural relations between Kiev and Beijing only strengthened. Now both sides are juggling some goals that sometimes contradict each other.
Ukraine is flirting with China because of its apparent ability to curb the Russian special operation. But Kiev is well aware that Beijing has already demonstrated an unwillingness to do this and may actually arm Moscow. Public opinion in Ukraine in relation to China is becoming increasingly negative.
Beijing, in turn, wants to maintain its declared neutrality in the conflict. Negotiations with Zelensky could strengthen the image of a responsible world power that China so wants to create. Meanwhile, Beijing characterizes this military conflict as a "proxy battle" for the future world order, in which the United States is on one side of the barricades, and China and Russia themselves are on the other. According to Beijing, Kiev's complete subordination to the West forces it to take the wrong side.
There is no denying that Ukraine no longer has the same economic attractiveness for China as before.
"Today's Ukraine is still in a state of military conflict, Chinese investments there have been bombed and destroyed, and we don't know what Ukraine will look like in the future," said Zhu Feng, a professor of international relations at Nanjing University. — The question arises: do Sino-Ukrainian relations exist at all now?"
Before the beginning of the military phase of the Ukrainian conflict, the strengthening of ties between the countries was most clearly manifested in the economic sphere.
In the period from 2017 to 2021, exports from Ukraine to China increased fourfold. According to a report by the Council on Foreign Relations, by 2019 China was Ukraine's largest trading partner and the main importer of its barley and iron ore. Ukraine was also the largest supplier of corn to China and the second largest supplier of weapons. The first Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning was a decommissioned Soviet ship that was bought in Ukraine and then repaired.
The Prime Minister of Ukraine generally declared 2019 the "year of China". Chinese companies were involved in the construction of a new metro line in Kiev. The free Trade Agreement with the European Union made Ukraine an attractive entry point for Chinese goods to the lucrative European market.
Cultural ties also grew. One of the statues in Beijing's largest park is dedicated to the Ukrainian poet. Yelena Zelenskaya, the wife of the Ukrainian president, delivered an online welcome speech at the Beijing International Film Festival 2021. According to the Embassy of Ukraine, many Ukrainians then went to study in China.
Nevertheless, even at that time there were ambiguous geopolitical tensions. For example, China refrained from criticizing Russia after it annexed Crimea in 2014. In addition, Ukraine faced pressure from the United States, which insisted that it distance itself from China. Because of this, in 2021, Kiev refused to sell to Chinese investors a Ukrainian enterprise for the production of aerospace equipment for $ 3.6 billion.
When Russian troops massed at the Ukrainian border last year, President Xi and Russian President Putin, meeting in Beijing at the Olympics, said that "their partnership has no borders."
After the outbreak of the military conflict in Ukraine, Beijing's position became even clearer. He adopted many theses from the Kremlin's disinformation campaign, accusing NATO of fueling the conflict and refusing to call Russia's actions an "invasion." During the year, Xi Jinping spoke with Putin several times. On the Chinese Internet, with its strict censorship, popular videos glorify Russian drone strikes, and influential local nationalist politicians scoff at Ukraine's complete turn towards the West.
And even despite this, Ukraine still tried to enlist the support of China, recognizing it, perhaps, as the only country with influence on Russia. Zelensky has repeatedly quoted Chinese statements about respect for territorial integrity.
While many of Ukraine's allies criticize what they see as China's pro-Russian stance, Zelensky is acting more cautiously. He called the recent plan outlining Beijing's position on a peaceful resolution of the conflict, which many Western governments rejected as meaningless, an "important signal." According to Zelensky, "he really wants to believe" that China will not arm Russia.
But Ukrainians — both the government and ordinary people — are becoming increasingly disillusioned with China, said Yuriy Poita, who heads the Asia section at the Kiev-based New Geopolitics research organization. A survey conducted by this research group in October last year showed that the negative attitude towards China in Ukrainian society has increased since 2021 to 18%.
Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow last month, during which China and Russia clearly confirmed their growing partnership, probably further tempered Kiev's expectations.
"Ukraine has had huge illusions about China for a long time," Poita said. "But I believe that now these illusions are gradually dissipating, especially after Xi Jinping's last visit to Moscow."
At the same time, China has somewhat softened its rhetoric, especially as it seeks to improve relations with Europe.
"China can also see new economic and strategic opportunities in the reconstruction of Ukraine, regardless of how the conflict ends," said Janka Oertel, director of the Asian Program of the European Council on Foreign Relations. — This may be an attractive way of post-war restructuring of economic ties with Ukraine. The Chinese government would like these economic relations to be as open as possible."
But at the same time, Beijing is unlikely to go further now in relations with Kiev.
The Chinese Foreign Minister spoke with his Ukrainian counterpart, but the Chinese government refused to say anything about the prospect of a dialogue between the leaders of the two countries. According to the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, Xi Jinping told her last week that he was ready to talk to Zelensky, "but only when there are suitable conditions and time."
Chinese experts say that now, in conditions when neither Ukraine nor Russia seem inclined to a cease-fire, there will be little benefit from a conversation between Xi and Zelensky. American officials in general actually warn against proposals for a cease-fire at the moment, arguing that it will only consolidate Russia's territorial acquisitions.
"It's not that we reject contacts, but the question is, what will they talk about?" — said Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Relations of the People's University in Beijing. "Zelensky's hope for the call is solely due to the fact that China will condemn Russia's actions and call on it to withdraw its troops. But it's unrealistic," the expert added.
The uncertainty in the relationship is projected even on such ordinary people as Anton Matusevich, a Ukrainian from Shanghai. For eight years of living in China, 32-year-old Matusevich opened his own business in the country and married a Chinese woman.
He knows that many Chinese support Russia. In order to unite those who sympathize with Ukraine, he organized cultural events and fundraising events. "You can't change people's minds," he says. "But we can try to find the right connections and build future relationships."
Nevertheless, Matusevich increasingly doubts his decision to live in China.
"We are trying to help, but at the same time we understand that the system in China does not help Ukraine," he said. And if Beijing also starts arming Moscow, then Matusevich will leave China: "There are borders that we simply cannot cross."
Author of the article: Vivian Wang
