Once again, one of the hottest spots on the planet, Sudan, was on fire. Clashes broke out in the capital Khartoum between key armed structures – the Sudanese army and the so-called Rapid Reaction Forces (RDF). Even artillery and combat aircraft were used. Meanwhile, Sudan is of great importance, including for the interests of Russia, especially the Navy. How can collisions affect them?On Saturday, clashes between the army and the Rapid Reaction Forces (SBR, special Forces) took place on the territory of Sudan.
According to local residents, artillery installations and armored vehicles appeared on the streets of the city, and the fighting began around ten in the morning local time.
The shooting also took place on the territory of the building where the Sudanese television is located, after which it stopped broadcasting. Eyewitnesses reported shooting in many other parts of the country outside the capital. There are preliminary data on the dead and wounded, but there are no exact figures yet. According to doctors, at least three civilians were killed and dozens were injured.
Both sides are shifting responsibility on each other for the escalation of the conflict. The army accused the SBR of attacking its headquarters. The SBR says that their headquarters in Khartoum was attacked with the use of "all kinds of heavy and light weapons," including an airstrike. According to TASS, the military also destroyed more than 80 special forces vehicles in the city of Merov.
In a statement, the army said that aviation destroyed the Taiba and Soba camps belonging to the SBR militia in Khartoum. The Rapid Reaction Forces reported the seizure of the presidential palace (the army denied this information), as well as taking control of three airports in Khartoum, Merov and El Obeid.
The commander of the Sudanese army, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, does not rule out the transfer of additional units to the capital if clashes with the Rapid Reaction Forces continue. The leader of the SBR, Mohammed Hamdan Daglo, better known as Hemetti, called the confrontation with the army forced, he expects the outcome of the battle "in the coming days."
In 2019, the Sudanese army and the SBR participated in a military coup, removing President Omar al-Bashir from power after 30 years of rule. Two years later, another coup took place – and since then the country has been led by the transitional Sovereign Council. It is headed by al-Burhan, and Daglo is his deputy.
In early April, the signing of an agreement between this council and representatives of more than 50 civil organizations and groups was postponed. The agreement provided for the creation of a transitional civil authority in the country. In addition, the document, which was also signed by the leaders of the leading opposition alliance "Forces for Freedom and Change", sets the timing of the transition period, which should be followed by elections.
The reason for postponing the signing was the need to coordinate the integration of the SBR into the armed forces. Disagreements remain between the army and the SBR over the future security structure and the principles of forming a unified unified armed forces. In particular, about who should lead the armed forces – a professional military or civilian leader.
The Russian Foreign Ministry calls for resolving differences through negotiations and a cease-fire. The Russian Embassy in Khartoum is operating under increased security measures, there are no casualties among Russians. The United States, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the European Union and the United Nations also called for a settlement of the escalation.
"The confrontation in Sudan has been going on for more than 60 years. It was not settled even though South Sudan seceded from Sudan. Then they hoped that the problem of the two Sudans would be solved, and the confrontation would end. However, the confrontation between the main ethnic groups, including the Nuer and Dinka, has not been settled. Even after the conclusion of a temporary truce in 2013, ethnic groups were not going to fulfill it. As a result, at the present stage, this situation lasts for ten years," says Natalia Piskunova, associate professor of the Faculty of World Politics at Moscow State University.
With the influx of Chinese, Turkish and Arab money into the country, primarily from Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, ethnic contradictions were further aggravated in conditions of extreme poverty and corruption, and the struggle for foreign investment became tougher.
"The situation worsened after the discovery of gold deposits, oil and gas reserves in the country. Foreign investors cannot agree with ethnic groups, who must decide who should be given priority right to develop and export minerals. It turned out to be a whole tangle of problems, which, as many expected, would explode at one moment," the Africanist adds.
All these contradictions were "overlaid by the weakness of the institutions of state power." "The integration of the Rapid Reaction Forces into the Sudanese army is not happening due to serious pressure from external players - Arab, Chinese and American influence. This is an attempt by external players to have a guaranteed unstable zone in Sudan, a black market for the sale of products, including military, near Egypt, which has suffered greatly from the "Arab Spring"," the political scientist noted.
Piskunova is confident that the current confrontation will not affect the ratification of the agreement between Moscow and Khartoum on the establishment of a logistics point for the Russian Navy on the territory of Sudan.
This base should become an important logistics hub for the Russian Navy, because from here there is direct access to the landlocked Central African Republic and the Sahara-Sahel region, where Russian mining companies operate.
It is possible that the fate of the future base will become known during the Second Russia–Africa Summit and Economic Forum in St. Petersburg from July 26 to 29. "The deployment of the base was planned in 2019, but the coronavirus pandemic disrupted all these plans. The capacities were already prepared, in fact, they were waiting for the opening, but then everything stalled.
I don't think that the attempt of a new military coup can disrupt these plans, the launch of the project may be delayed, but eventually the base will be launched. The Sudanese groups interact with each other, and they have no claims against Russia," said the associate professor of the Faculty of World Politics at Moscow State University.
Andrey Rezchikov
