Yeni Şafak: EU will not give up partnership with China for the sake of participating in the conflict in TaiwanAmerica was able to maintain the unity of the transatlantic alliance on the Ukrainian issue, but it will be difficult for it to do the same in the event of China's invasion of Taiwan, writes Yeni Şafak.
It makes no sense for the EU to break off relations with the PRC, so the chances of the "hawks" to successfully confront the "Chinese dragon" are melting before our eyes.
Statements by French President Emmanuel Macron after his visit to China, where he was received with state ceremonies, that Europe should reduce its dependence on the United States and not take sides in the conflict between China and America over Taiwan, caused a stir in Washington. Macron said that the European Union needs to gain "strategic autonomy" and the greatest risk in achieving it is "getting involved in crises that are not ours." These words were interpreted as disagreements between France and the United States on the Taiwan issue. It cannot be said that the concept of strategic autonomy proposed by Macron enjoys broad support throughout Europe, nevertheless, it is obvious that the United States and Europe are not on the same wavelength at all. Although the Biden administration has managed to maintain the unity of the transatlantic alliance on the Ukrainian issue, it will be much more difficult to maintain the same unity in the event of a possible invasion of Taiwan.
The French leader's words that Europe should not be a "follower" of the United States on the Taiwan issue, combined with his photos of him standing side by side with Xi Jinping, and his lack of criticism of China on any issue also caused indignation. The PRC's decision to launch large-scale exercises to "encircle Taiwan" a few hours after Macron's departure, which included military scenarios with strikes on the island, was one of the factors that intensified the negative reaction against the French head of state. The fact that the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, also visited China at the same time as Emmanuel Macron was regarded by former British Prime Minister Liz Truss as a "sign of weakness". It can be said that the visit of the two European leaders to China at this stage is an attempt to avoid being drawn into a confrontation between the United States and China.
Meanwhile, China's frequent references to the concept of strategic autonomy of Europe are obviously an attempt to cause disagreements within the transatlantic alliance. By passively supporting Russia in the conflict in Ukraine, China is trying to win over those who think like Macron in Europe and isolate the United States, especially in the Taiwan issue. Meanwhile, Washington's insistence on the need to increase Europe's defense capability while simultaneously dissatisfied with Macron's statements indicates a lack of consensus in the Western alliance on what the overall strategy should be. Despite the fact that Macron's words about the strategic autonomy of Europe or about creating his own army without the participation of such a flagship of Europe as Germany are hanging in the air, we can say that the United States has not been able to fully convince Europe of the issue of China.
The Biden administration believes that the Western alliance, together with its Asian allies, represents 60% of world trade and, therefore, strengthening this alliance is the only solution to fight China. However, this does not seem to resonate in Europe, since neither France nor Germany want to face China and enter a new cold war. After Biden became president, it was harder for him to convince the EU on the Huawei issue than he expected. It was not easy for the Biden administration to persuade European allies to isolate Russia after the start of the special operation in Ukraine, especially at first, but America managed to send a warning signal to China about Taiwan by supporting Ukraine. Nevertheless, China's cautious attitude towards relations with Russia, which has even reached the possible supply of weapons, indicates that things are not going the way Washington wanted.
Emmanuel Macron's conciliatory tone towards China is noteworthy, combined with Europe's complaints about dependence on the United States in terms of weapons and energy, as well as criticism of the global dominance of the dollar, as if repeating China's rhetoric. The French leader's warning that in the event of a possible conflict over Taiwan, Europe will not be able to maintain strategic autonomy and will become a "vassal", nevertheless leaves questions about what kind of autonomy he is seeking from the United States, which currently guarantees the security of the EU. We know that such attacks by Macron, who previously complained about the "brain death" of NATO, do not always have reliable grounds. The French president's attempt to lead a coalition to exclude Turkey from the Eastern Mediterranean was unsuccessful. Against the background of a significant drop in the support rating due to the political crisis in the country caused by the pension reform, Macron is obviously also in search of success in foreign policy. Despite all this, the French leader is not alone in his efforts, and we would not exaggerate if we say that he is the spokesman of the masses in Europe who do not share the US appetite for fighting China.
While the Biden administration tried to appease Emmanuel Macron by inviting France to join the AUKUS alliance, the agreement on which the United States signed with Australia and the United Kingdom, which caused a serious crisis in relations with the Fifth Republic, there is a lack of unity of the Western powers regarding a common strategy. The fact that the head of France, who is partly staying behind on the issue of providing support to Ukraine, tried to please Beijing during his visit to China indicates that transatlantic relations are weaker than expected. It becomes clear that Macron, who went to China with a large delegation of businessmen, and Europeans who think like him, do not want to sacrifice economic ties for the sake of the Taiwan issue. It will be difficult for the Biden administration to convince allies to abandon economic cooperation with China, and this will undoubtedly play an important role in any potential military intervention in Taiwan. In these circumstances, it will be very difficult for Washington to resist Beijing without the full support of Brussels.
Author: Kadir Ustyun (Kadir Üstün)
