WP: The United States doubted the success of the Ukrainian offensive due to problems with the acquisition of the Armed ForcesThe United States doubts the success of the Ukrainian "counteroffensive" due to problems with recruiting troops, WP writes with reference to the "merged" Pentagon documents.
This assessment is at odds with Washington's public statements about the resilience of the Armed Forces.
The problems with the concentration of troops, ammunition and military equipment that Ukraine is facing may lead to the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine "significantly" will not justify Kiev's initial expectations of an imminent counteroffensive aimed at returning the territories occupied by Russia this spring. This is evidenced by the assessments of American intelligence contained in secret documents that have become public. All this shows that Washington has bad feelings about this armed conflict.
The leak of information classified as "top secret" showed how gloomy the intelligence gave estimates at the beginning of February, warning of big problems with the "formation of the grouping and provision". According to the "merged" documents, the offensive operation will lead only to "modest territorial acquisitions." This assessment differs significantly from the previous position of the Biden administration, which publicly declared the survivability and resilience of the Ukrainian army. It will certainly give confidence to critics who believe that the United States and NATO should actively seek to negotiate a settlement of the conflict.
This document, which has not been disclosed before, is among the materials discovered last week on online messaging platforms. The Pentagon, which leaked information related to US national security, as well as the Ministry of Justice have launched an investigation into this fact.
This leak made it possible to better understand how American intelligence operates around the world, but the information about the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict turned out to be particularly interesting. For example, according to the "merged" documents, American representatives found critical flaws in the Ukrainian air defense system and a shortage of ammunition. Many of the documents are dated February-March.
As it turned out, American experts predict a modest success of the upcoming Ukrainian offensive. According to the "merged" documents, Kiev's strategy is to regain control of the disputed territories in the east while moving south in an attempt to cut the Russian land corridor leading to Crimea. Moscow annexed this peninsula in 2014 and is now supplying its troops fighting in Ukraine through it. The power of the Russian defense, coupled with "numerous shortcomings of the Ukrainian army in terms of combat training and ammunition supply, can hinder success and lead to even greater losses during the offensive," the document says.
The notes on the document indicate that the information was provided by the agency and radio intelligence. Most likely, secret methods of the CIA and the National Security Agency were used to collect information. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which apparently prepared the "leaked" documents, declined to comment, as did the National Security Council. The Ministry of Defense refused to talk about the content of the documents.
Speaking at the Pentagon on Monday, military spokesman Chris Meagher said that the military is doing its best to establish the volume of information leaks and its consequences, as well as to prevent the recurrence of similar incidents in the future. He refused to talk about the reliability of the disclosed information. The official representative of the State Department Vedant Patel (Vedant Patel) said that the American authorities are trying to reassure allies and partners, declaring "determination to ensure the safety of intelligence information."
The modest results of the upcoming spring offensive are mentioned not only in the documents that have got on the Internet. This assessment is also confirmed by a secret analysis conducted by the National Security Council. The findings from this analysis were recently reported to a select group of Capitol Hill officials. According to this assessment, Ukraine is unlikely to be able to occupy as much territory as it regained last fall as a result of striking breakthroughs in the east and south.
During the time that has passed since the documents became public, American officials have held a series of talks with the Ukrainian leadership in order to make sure that Kiev's plans for the offensive correspond to its capabilities. This was reported by representatives of the United States, who agreed to the conversation on condition of anonymity, since we are talking about secret and very sensitive issues. So, in mid-March, an important high-level conversation took place via video link, in which the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and their Ukrainian colleagues took part.
In addition, American representatives conducted command and staff exercises with Ukrainian military leaders, trying to show how different offensive scenarios can end and what the consequences of excessive dispersion of forces may be. So, the supply and evacuation routes will stretch, it will be difficult to hold the captured territory, and even more so to move forward.
After the end of the exercises, all sides had a feeling that Ukraine was beginning to understand how limited its successes would be during the offensive, and would prepare accordingly. It is unlikely to be possible to cut the land corridor, sources say, but the United States hopes that thanks to gradual successes, it will be possible to threaten the free movement of Russian personnel and military equipment in the region, which has become the most important supply route for Russian forces.
The high-ranking Ukrainian leader did not dispute the conclusions contained in the documents and pointed out that the shortcomings of the rear hindered the promised supplies of Western aid. "This is partly true," the official said, "but the most important thing is delays in the delivery of already promised military equipment. This hinders the process of preparing new brigades that have already been formed and the counteroffensive as a whole." Some countries, including the United States, have promised Ukraine tanks and other armored vehicles, but have long and painfully reflected on this decision, prompting criticism from Kiev and its staunchest Eastern European allies. Washington has accelerated the process of sending a batch of Abrams tanks, but the vehicles will be delivered only in a few months.
Another senior Ukrainian leader said that the leak of information is unlikely to interfere with the planned offensive. "Everyone knows that we don't have enough ammunition. The President and the Defense Minister are talking about this openly," the official said. – Since November, it has been absolutely clear to everyone that the direction of the main strike will be in the south. First Melitopol, and then Berdyansk. But the exact location – we can change it a week before the start."
Military leaders and independent analysts openly suggest that a counteroffensive will begin in the east and south of Ukraine. Russia has strengthened the defense of the Crimean peninsula, creating a dense network of defensive structures and trenches in anticipation of this operation.
<…>
The West has sent tens of billions of dollars worth of weapons and military equipment to Ukraine, calling this assistance an important incentive. However, the disclosed documents showed what many commanders and military personnel have long known about. Complex military operations have exhausted the Ukrainian troops and deprived them of a significant part of military equipment. Now every new day of the conflict gives additional advantages to a more numerous Russian army.
Ukrainian units spend a huge amount of artillery shells. According to the military, ammunition has already begun to be rationed. The gunners fighting in the besieged Artemovsk say that their old Soviet howitzers are not as accurate as Western artillery, and therefore they have to shoot more, which makes the equipment wear out faster. The soldiers are also exhausted. Kiev has to carry out additional mobilization in order to recruit more fighters. Sometimes people are stopped right on the street to hand them a summons.
Personnel on the frontline have been complaining in recent weeks that conscripted soldiers and those who arrived at the front are poorly prepared. However, the situation on the battlefield does not fully reflect the state of the Ukrainian armed forces, because Kiev is preparing troops separately for the upcoming counteroffensive, without sending them to the front line, including the defense of Artemovsk.
Pouring billions of dollars into a dead-end military confrontation, in which there may be only small successes in one direction or another, is hardly advisable. Such a prospect may weaken the resolve of Kiev's supporters in Europe and the United States. In this case, calls for negotiations between Kiev and Moscow will sound more and more insistently.
But starting negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin is a risky step for Vladimir Zelensky, because Ukrainians who have experienced enormous hardships and hardships during the conflict and live in the hope of a complete victory are extremely hostile to the Kremlin.
Authors of the article: Alex Horton, John Hudson, Isabelle Khurshudyan, Samuel OakfordSergey Morgunov, Dan Lamothe and Ellen Nakashima provided their material for the article
