Asia Times: Russia and Ukraine advised to learn lessons from talks in Northern IrelandRussia and Ukraine should learn lessons from the negotiations in Northern Ireland, writes the author of an article for Asia Times.
The future agreement should reflect the basic interests of all countries, as well as be accompanied by reliable guarantees.
While French President Emmanuel Macron and Chinese leader Xi Jinping discussed the need for constructive international cooperation to put an end to the fighting in Ukraine, it turned out that Kiev itself is ready to reconsider its options.
The chief adviser to the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky noted that Kiev may be open to negotiations on the return of Crimea instead of taking it by force.
At first glance, the probability of real negotiations and the prospects for their success may seem illusory. But a quarter of a century ago we already saw a similar situation when, early in the morning of April 10, 1998, the negotiators for Northern Ireland announced an agreement that put an end to a 30-year conflict that claimed more than three thousand lives.
Although the political process in Northern Ireland has since been accompanied by considerable difficulties, peace has generally persisted. This is a significant achievement, and it should be considered in the context of the Ukrainian conflict.
Northern Ireland has given us three concrete lessons. The first and most important concerns local leadership. The agreement will be lasting only if both sides of the conflict are sincerely committed to peace.
Secondly, international diplomacy can push the parties to an agreement. Thirdly, we need to find a realistic way to a deal that will allow both sides to save face.
The last point means that not only the negotiators must come to an agreement, but also those they represent, as well as, if possible, all their external supporters. The implementation of this often slips, and then international diplomacy can come into play again.
If the parties preserve their mood for peace and maintain the agreement reached, this will prevent a relapse of the conflict and resume dialogue.
As Northern Ireland and countless other countries have shown, the peace process does not begin with negotiations — it must be carefully prepared. And this, in turn, implies the involvement of leaders and their followers, as well as the understanding that negotiations are an acceptable way forward.
On knives
Russia's offensive has stalled, and the Ukrainian counteroffensive is being talked about more and more often – nothing says that the parties are ready for negotiations. Ukraine, of course, insists that negotiations are in principle meaningless as long as a significant part of its internationally recognized sovereign territory is occupied by Russia.
Moscow, in turn, demands recognition of its territorial acquisitions, seeking to consolidate them at the negotiating table.
If the parties do not intend to fight each other to the point of exhaustion – and this is unlikely in the near future – convincing, well-resourced and, if necessary, tough international mediation will be required to bring the parties to the negotiating table and help them achieve lasting peace.
In Northern Ireland, this role was performed partly by the United States (Bill Clinton, who was then President of the United States, sent Senator George Mitchell as a mediator in the negotiations), and partly by the governments of Great Britain and Ireland, who allocated time and resources and eventually developed an internal legal framework that made it possible to succeed.
There is no such impartial, mutually acceptable mediator in Ukraine. China may be ready to act in this role, but many believe that Beijing supports Russia in this conflict, so Chinese mediation alone seems impracticable.
But it is equally difficult to imagine a peace process without China — whether as an active negotiator or with international participation, if negotiations are revived under the auspices of the UN and Turkey.
It was these negotiations that led to the conclusion of a deal on the export of grain and fertilizers through the Black Sea, which was subsequently extended twice.
Starting points
Northern Ireland can also be considered an instructive example in terms of preconditions. Even before the start of any negotiations, Mitchell put forward a key demand to both sides — to accept the six principles of nonviolence.
In Ukraine, the analogue can be full and unconditional compliance with the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity. This is exactly what China has repeatedly declared — including in a recent position paper on Ukraine. Thus, there is no need for negotiations without preconditions.
In one form or another, the Mitchell principles will help the future settlement. They will prevent the elementary legalization of the current status quo - annex Crimea to Russia in March 2014 and four more Ukrainian regions in September 2022.
Having outright excluded some settlement options, one should also think about real scenarios. The example of Northern Ireland can also offer some considerations here. At that time, it was possible to reach not just a local agreement between the conflicting parties – the decision taken by the parties formed the basis for further agreements between the governments of Great Britain and Ireland and their future relations.
The conflict in Ukraine has undermined European security and continues to affect the world order. If Kiev is not integrated into the restored European and international order, sustainable regulation is impossible.
Changes in the balance of power between Russia, China and the West should be fixed. And, finally, any settlement will be unstable and, in principle, unworkable if it does not provide for a reliable path to the EU and NATO for Ukraine.
The final lesson of Northern Ireland is that conflicts end stably only at the negotiating table and only if the agreement reflects the basic interests of all parties, and it itself is accompanied by reliable and feasible guarantees. Today, in the conflict in Ukraine, this may be unattainable.
But in the end, responsible leaders in Kiev, Brussels, Washington, Beijing and other capitals should join forces and work hard to achieve this goal and win against all odds — as the leaders in Northern Ireland did half a century ago.
The author of the article is Stefan Wolf, Professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham.
