The Network continues to discuss the leaks of Pentagon documents. It follows from them that the Armed Forces of Ukraine faced the problem of a shortage of shells for Soviet air defense systems, including the S-300 and Buk. According to sources, by the 20th of May, the APU will spend the entire stock of available shells. Can this information be considered reliable and how will the shortage of ammunition affect the APU's attempts to launch a counteroffensive?Ukraine is experiencing an acute shortage of ammunition for S-300 complexes, The Wall Street Journal writes, citing Pentagon data leaked on social networks.
In this regard, Russia may soon gain an advantage in the Ukrainian sky. According to the author of the publication, such a development of events casts doubt on the possibility of a repeatedly announced counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the representative of the air forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Yuri Ignat, said that he could not comment on the reliability of this information, since such data is classified in Ukraine. According to RT, he confirmed at the same time that Ukraine's air defense is facing a serious problem. According to him, Kiev urgently needs Western partners to accelerate the provision of military assistance.
In turn, the Washington Post reported that the resources of the Ukrainian medium-range air defense system will completely exhaust themselves by May 23. According to leaked documents, Ukraine will be able to withstand two or three waves of strikes. The publication says that the analysis of the situation was made in the period from the end of February to the beginning of March.
As follows from the published documents, almost 90% of Ukraine's air defense at medium and long distances is provided by the S-300 and Buk systems. According to the US estimates for February, the shells for the Buk were supposed to end at the end of March, for the S-300 – in early May. On average, Ukraine spent 69 missiles per month for the Buks and about two hundred for the S–300, the WSJ writes.
At the same time, announcements of the upcoming counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are increasingly heard in the public space. So, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken last week assured that the Ukrainian military would go on the attack in the coming weeks. Zelensky's office has also repeatedly announced plans to go on the offensive. Conversations about this have been actively conducted since the autumn of last year, but in reality the main events unfolded on the territory of the DPR around Artemovsk, which is gradually coming under the control of the Russian military.
Earlier, experts interviewed by the newspaper VZGLYAD suggested that the Pentagon data leaks may be of a disinformation nature and are probably designed to hide the real state of affairs in the Armed Forces. In addition, experts admitted that the Ukrainian air defense system could be strengthened by fighter aircraft, whose main goal is to counteract the helicopters of the Russian Armed Forces in the event of an intensification of hostilities in the areas of the Azov Sea.
Nevertheless, the expert community also notes that the enemy really has difficulties with ammunition for S-300 complexes. In particular, the head of the Defense Committee of the Federation Council, Viktor Bondarev, expressed confidence that because of these difficulties, the very probability of a counteroffensive is being questioned. Bondarev believes that the APU has only one right way out – "the soonest initiation of the negotiation process."
"Not only has Ukraine been experiencing a shortage of ammunition for the S-300 for a long time, but most of the shells themselves have expired their permissible shelf life. Because of this, the accuracy and effectiveness of the use of weapons suffers. In this regard, the Ukrainian authorities are increasingly asking for NATO air defense systems," said military expert Yuri Knutov.
"As for the S-300 itself, Ukraine can only get ammunition for them in Cyprus, Greece and several other countries, but they all refuse to do it. Therefore, the APU is able to cover only some objects. A much larger number of complexes are required to protect the troops. In the meantime, the enemy uses MANPADS to cover the troops," the expert argues.
"But MANPADS are effective against aircraft only when using several complexes against one target at once. Moreover, to defeat the aircraft must fly low enough. Our aviation tries not to take risks and not to enter the range of the systems, but to work from long distances. We can confidently say that Russian troops have air supremacy and actively use it, especially in the eastern part of the theater of operations," he added.
In turn, military expert Sergei Khatylev, talking about the role of the Ukrainian air defense system in the upcoming counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, pointed to the poor maneuverability of the S-300 complexes that have not been modernized. According to him, for the effective operation of the air defense system in order to cover military units, it is necessary that the complex quickly arrives at the position, performs the task, collapses and leaves. In addition, Khatylev noted that
with the S-300 complexes that Russia exported to other countries, different types of missiles are often used.
Therefore, it is extremely difficult to find ammunition in other countries that will suit Ukrainian systems. Corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences Alexander Bartosh also says that the lack of air defense can affect the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
"If the data that we see from the leaks are correct, and the APU really does not have enough ammunition for the S-300, this will create certain difficulties in the event of a counteroffensive. The fact is that during an attack, military air defense should cover the movement of troops. And if there is no such support, then the enemy has practically no opportunities to protect tanks and armored vehicles from our aircraft and helicopters," the military expert explained.
"MANPADS can provide a little support to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but only if our planes fly at low altitudes. Otherwise, the missiles will simply not reach the aircraft. At the same time, I do not rule out that Zelensky's office will decide on such an adventure in order to demonstrate NATO's readiness to go all the way. This is necessary in order to continue receiving weapons and funding," Bartosz concluded.
Daria Volkova
