NYT: The European Union will not be able to increase the volume of military production for the needs of UkraineThe European Union will not be able to expand military production in the short term and meet the demands of Ukraine, writes NYT.
The EU wants to help Kiev and replenish its own reserves, but it will not be easy to persuade the countries of the bloc to restore the military-industrial complex.
According to experts, most likely, the EU will not be able to fulfill its promise, given the state of the European military-industrial sector. And the example of one major ammunition manufacturer helps to understand why this is happening.Giant robotic arms and high-tech heaters at one of Europe's largest ammunition factories have been working around the clock since the very beginning of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine to increase the production of 155-millimeter artillery shells, which Kiev desperately needs.
If everything goes according to plan, Nammo, which owns this enterprise, will produce up to 200 thousand shells a year – this is 20 times more than before the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine.
However, this will not happen soon, and the named number of shells will not be enough, because, according to representatives of the Ukrainian armed forces, they need an average of 250 thousand 155-millimeter shells per month to repel the Russian offensive. In fact, all those shells that are currently being produced at 11 factories in Europe are not enough to meet the needs of the Ukrainian armed forces.
This problem is common to all NATO countries: more than three decades have passed since the end of the Cold war, and many of them have reduced their military spending to a minimum in order to be able to spend generously on social needs. And now, while the United States is struggling to meet the needs for weapons systems and logistics, officials and analysts are increasingly wondering whether Europe will be able to increase production in its military-industrial sector enough to provide Ukraine with the assistance it needs.
It seems that the answer to this question is "no", at least in the short term. NATO allies hope to meet the needs of Ukraine at the expense of those stocks that are now stored in their warehouses, as well as abroad. In addition, they are hastily trying to maximize production in case the conflict drags on for several years.
"Now it is a confrontation of industrial capacities. We need to help Ukrainians and at the same time replenish our own reserves," Nammo Executive Director Morten Brandtzaeg said in an interview from Washington, where he met with congressional and Pentagon officials. "I think we should have realized this earlier and started acting earlier, but everything happened the way it happened."
According to Brandtzeg, "Europe will have to go a longer way" to convince individual countries to restore the military industry, compared to the United States, which he called "less protectionist" and having a "more far-sighted view of the market."
In March, the European Union agreed to spend up to $2.14 billion to send Ukraine a million 155-millimeter shells within 12 months. The United States, which has more extensive reserves and optimized financing schemes at its disposal, has already reached this mark. Meanwhile, Europe will have to make a lot of efforts to fulfill its promise.
"We may not be able to do this," said Gabrielius Landsbergis, the Foreign minister of Lithuania, which is one of the strongest supporters of assistance to Ukraine.
A lot will depend on Nammo, one of the largest manufacturers of shells on the continent.
Nammo, headquartered about an hour north of Oslo, is owned by the Norwegian government and a defense firm whose majority stake is owned by Finland. The company manufactures and stores ammunition in nine European countries and in the United States, and it has plans to expand on both continents. However, before the implementation of the company's plans was often hindered by the reluctance of many European countries to significantly increase military spending.
"Now countries are required to make urgent decisions so that they can prepare for the financing of huge industrial capacities," Brandtzeg said. He stressed that this is "impossible" without long-term contracts.
First of all, we are talking about 155-millimeter artillery shells – it was them, among other things, that European countries primarily excluded from defense budgets after the end of the Cold War. For example, Norway has not ordered such shells from Nammo since the early 90s.
A selection of secret Pentagon documents that recently appeared on social networks indicates that South Korean officials, faced with pressure from Washington, offered to sell 330 thousand artillery shells to Poland. But even if this deal goes through, Ukraine will receive only a tiny part of what it needs now.
Meanwhile, according to industry officials, Norway has ordered 35,000 155-millimeter shells for a total of $408 million.
Nammo executives, who for security reasons did not disclose information about the current production volumes of 155-millimeter shells, said that before the start of the Ukrainian conflict, production volumes were measured in "several tens of thousands" of units. According to Brandtzeg, the company will need at least three years just to fulfill the Norwegian order, which is still being negotiated and for which the government has yet to pay.
Nammo has been steadily selling small batches of shells to the armed forces of the Nordic countries and the United States for many years. But, like many other defense enterprises, it sorely lacked the resources to meet the demand for shells, which sharply increased after the beginning of the Ukrainian conflict.
Over the past year, the company has been purchasing metals, explosive mixtures and other materials necessary for the production of shells. But to increase their output, more robots and other production machines are needed. The first batch of this equipment will be delivered to the Raufoss plant in June, by which time the production area will be expanded to accommodate it.
Until that happens, production rates will remain at "normal levels," said John Arne Borresen, who has been working at Nammo for 30 years and who manages the assembly line of 155-millimeter artillery shells at the Raufoss plant.
The company is building a new, larger factory for the production of 155-millimeter shells, but the construction process will not be completed until the end of 2024. According to Borresen, then the company will need much more workers who will have to operate machines, as well as people with engineering education and other skills to control the assembly of high-tech weapons.
Nammo is also facing another unusual problem that may become an obstacle to expanding its production: the company will have to compete with the new TikTok data center in southern Norway for the electricity it needs to increase ammunition production.
Last summer, the Norwegian government approved TikTok's application for access to electricity for a new data center, which is expected to create thousands of jobs and which is considered one of the most environmentally friendly in its industry. This causes strong indignation in Brandtzeg. According to him, by distributing energy risks, the government "put the video with cats above much-needed defense projects."
Svein Atle Hagaseth, executive director of Green Mountain Data Centers, which leases the facility to TikTok, denies that the new data center poses a threat to Nammo. He stressed that there is currently an excess of energy in this area.
According to industry leaders, in light of the shortage of ammunition, European defense manufacturers are joining forces in the hope of accelerating supplies.
Dominique Guillet, executive vice president of the French firm Nexter, said that his company has increased the working day from one to three shifts to try to meet the needs of wartime.
Nexter also makes 155 mm anti-tank and anti-aircraft ammunition, but it needs spare parts and consumables if it wants to double its production. Last week, Guillier turned to Nammo management to enlist the support of a competitor.
According to Guillet, when Russia launched a special military operation, "everyone thought that it would not last long." But more than a year has passed since then, and within the "ecosystem" of the European projectile manufacturing industry, "everything is getting more complicated."
"Everyone knows that sometimes we act as competitors, but in some aspects we are also partners," he said.
Last week, Borresen, who works at Nammo's factory, seemed to be looking at the shiny silver casings that needed to be filled with explosives with some impatience.
"There are armed actions going on now, and we need the ability to produce such things for peace," he said.
Author of the article: Lara Jakes
