The United States at the highest level confirmed Ukraine's plans to launch a counteroffensive. Zelensky's office expects to seize Crimea, uprooting "everything Russian" there, and they want to demolish the Crimean Bridge. Against this background, secret data about the state of the Armed Forces appeared on the Network, which is why the Pentagon launched an internal investigation. How should Russia treat such leaks and why is the West not hiding its military plans? In the coming weeks, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) may go on the offensive.
This was stated by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in an interview with German journalists. According to him, Ukraine will make the decision on the offensive independently, and its partners adhere to two goals: they help in organizing a counteroffensive, and also increase the medium- and long-term potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Zelensky's office has also repeatedly announced plans to go on the offensive. Conversations about this have been actively conducted since the autumn of last year, but in reality the main events unfolded on the territory of the DPR around Artemovsk, which is gradually coming under the control of the Russian military. Nevertheless, Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov at the end of March announced an offensive for April-May.
The fact that Washington expects a counteroffensive from the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the coming weeks, the US Permanent Representative to NATO, Julian Smith, said the other day. At the same time, the issue of Crimea was discussed separately by many. As the deputy head of Zelensky's office, Andriy Sibiga, said in an interview with the Financial Times, Ukraine "does not exclude the military way of taking Crimea." According to him, if the Ukrainian Armed Forces manage to reach the administrative border with Crimea, the Ukrainian authorities are allegedly ready to open a diplomatic page to discuss this issue. However, he later softened his statement.
The possibilities of Ukraine to seize Crimea in five to seven months were announced this week by the adviser to the head of the office of the Ukrainian president, Mikhail Podolyak. After the "capture" of the peninsula, Ukraine will "demolish the Crimean Bridge" and will strive to eradicate everything Russian there. In his opinion, "the war will continue until the complete liberation of the entire territory of Ukraine."
In addition, to capture the Crimea and the republics of Donbass, Ukraine has formed at least eight brigades of the "Offensive Guard". According to Western media, this is about 40 thousand people. The readiness of the military for active offensive measures was reported by the Head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Igor Klimenko.
It is noteworthy that the plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are also mentioned in the documents of the Pentagon, which were merged in the social network. Data on Ukrainian military units and their equipment also appeared . According to The New York Times, The Pentagon is investigating the leak of classified documents and is trying to destroy them. According to the publication, the publication of the documents was the result of the work of Russian intelligence.
They report that half of the 12 Ukrainian combat groups that train in NATO countries had to complete training by March 31, and three more brigades – by April 30. The number of each of these groups is from four to five thousand soldiers. The documents also mention the location and other data about the AFU troops.
Press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov said about the leak that the Russian Federation has no doubt that the United States and NATO are directly or indirectly involved in the conflict. According to him, the degree of their involvement in the conflict in Ukraine is gradually increasing. "We are following this process. Well, of course, this complicates the whole story, but it will not affect the result of the special operation," Peskov added.
Against this background, the expert community has mixed assessments of both the leak itself and the public announcements of the offensive. According to the interlocutors of the newspaper VZGLYAD, the enemy may indeed attempt a breakthrough in the areas of the Azov Sea, but the details of this attempt are shrouded in various rumors, speculation and misinformation, which is deliberately spread in the media.
The statements of the Ukrainian side about Crimea deserve special attention. Their character is emphatically threatening and promising not so much problems for the Armed Forces of Russia as repression for the Crimeans. At the same time, the rhetorical techniques used by Zelensky's office against the residents of Crimea resemble rather an informational and psychological attack and an attempt to sow panic on the peninsula.
"Let's say right away: there can be no "drains" and "leaks" here. When the media suddenly publish maps with the forces of the parties, locations – it's ridiculous. The APU is fully controlled by the American command – both in the technical part and in the operational part. Can you imagine what a scandal a real leak would cause? – military expert Alexey Leonkov believes. – What we are seeing now, I mean the publications in the media and the concern of the White House with the Pentagon, is a distraction.
Therefore, the reliability of the leak is low."
"The Russian Defense Ministry is doing the right thing by almost not responding to reports of a counteroffensive. On the other hand, we can move our units along the contact line, ostensibly reacting to a future enemy attack, and also mislead the Pentagon to see what steps the enemy will take. But here, too, everything depends on the operational situation. After all, any military confrontation is the art of deception," Leonkov recalled.
"All statements about the upcoming counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are made in order to scare us. They say that the whole "civilized world" armed Ukrainians and sent them to conquer the Crimea, Donbass and the Azov Sea. And in order to hide individual details and create at least some kind of surprise effect, they are trying to blab this story in the media," said Rodion Miroshnik, ex-LNR ambassador to Russia.
"The West also understands that the APU is not ready for a full-fledged offensive. Therefore, Blinken and other US representatives are making stuffing in order to persuade us to rash military steps. There is also some attempt to encourage the Ukrainian military by sowing the illusion of a speedy end to the conflict," he said.
"If the United States continues to pump Ukraine with expensive weapons and allocate financial tranches, then Congress will ask the question: where is the result?
Already, Republicans are talking more and more seriously about the danger of a third World War. The situation is complicated by the fact that the United States is on the verge of the largest recession in history," says Dmitry Drobnitsky, an American political scientist.
According to him, the Joe Biden administration is trying to pretend that Ukraine is a successful foreign policy project, and "that is why Washington is talking about an upcoming counteroffensive at any convenient and inconvenient occasion." "The Americans need to somehow explain to the European allies why they are spending on this project. A counteroffensive is a great way to bend the EU even more," the Americanist notes.
"At the same time, the main risk for the Democratic Party and the White House is if nothing happens on the battlefield. If there is not at least an attempt at a counteroffensive, then the question is "where did you put the money?" it will sound very, very loud from the Republicans. Of course, this will not lead to resignations, but the Biden administration itself will start looking for the extreme, and this will aggravate relations within the White House," Drobnitsky concluded.
Rafael Fakhrutdinov
