Mainichi Shimbun: Russia has given the global South an opportunity to get aheadThe block struggle that broke out as a result of the Russian SVO in Ukraine has shaken up the global South, writes Mainichi Shimbun.
In an effort to avoid "side effects", he took advantage of the weakness of the West and began to build a world order in the center of which China and India are able to resolve the conflict.
The New Global Order according to China and IndiaAgainst the backdrop of the rise of the global South, China and India are striving to create a new world order.
The global South is gaining an increasingly significant voice in the global economy. Thanks to a huge working-age population and rich natural resources, after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, developing countries were able to achieve rapid growth caused by economic globalization.
However, the special operation in Ukraine, which began in 2022, revived the old structure of the Cold War — NATO against Russia. This can lead to fragmentation of the global economy, on which the very survival of the global South depends. Because he strongly opposes economic division, two major powers — China and India — are trying to build a new global order.
Beijing took the initiative. Xi Jinping, who was re-elected for a third term at a meeting of the National People's Congress on March 10, became a mediator in restoring diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Then he visited Russia and met with President Vladimir Putin, expressing a firm desire to assist in the ceasefire.
Honori Endo, director of the Global Institute of Chinese Studies and an expert on Chinese politics, believes that Xi Jinping seeks to move away from the unipolar dominance of the United States and build a multipolar world order with the global South as allies.
For the global South, the most urgent problem is the sharp rise in the cost of energy and food. Countries dependent on oil imports, such as Turkey and India, are facing spikes in oil prices, which mean sharp inflation, which, in turn, leads to instability of the regime.
The situation is similar with food. The states of the global South do not justify the special operation in Ukraine, but they also do not want Russia, one of the world's largest suppliers of energy resources and fertilizers, to be isolated from the world economy.
Endo notes that its "unacceptable", but sanctions against Moscow, imposed under the leadership of the West, will lead to fragmentation of the supply chain, which will ultimately have a negative impact on poor countries. Therefore, developing regions pin their hopes on China and India, which are in friendly relations with Russia and at the same time have an impact on the United States and Europe.
India is a representative of developing countries
Having overtaken China and become the most populous country in the world, India has even more potential to influence the Global South than China. It was part of the British Empire and took an active part in the management of Africa, the Middle East and Asia, and this structure operates in these regions to this day.
Delhi's foreign policy course is strategic autonomy. This means that India does not form alliances with anyone, but maintains equal relations and independently determines its policy in the field of security and diplomacy, without being subjected to external influence.
Takahiro Sato, professor of economics at Kobe University and an expert on the Indian economy, emphasizes: "It is unlikely that Delhi will be strongly tied to any one state, at least in the next 14-15 years. Therefore, Moscow also takes part in the G20 meetings. Undoubtedly, India is one of those countries that create opportunities for dialogue between the West and Russia."
India, which is well able to draw up legal documents in English, consistently acts as a representative of the interests of new and developing countries within such international economic structures as the GATT (a treaty created after World War II to ensure free trade) or the more developed World Trade Organization (WTO).
According to Sato, for India, which believes that the Persian Gulf countries are part of its sphere of influence, the success of Chinese mediation in restoring diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia was a real shock.
Delhi considers strategic autonomy to be one of the foundations of the country's identity, and the balance of power in the world is important for it. "If Beijing is rising, then it needs to be resisted," Sato comments.
Indeed, India and China are fighting to attract various regions to their camp, including Africa, the Middle East and South Asia.
If you look at the GDP data on purchasing power parity (PPP) of the 20 leading countries of the world (based on IMF statistics for a 20-year period), it becomes clear that during this time, emerging market and emerging economies have overtaken the G7 and entered the top twenty.
It is believed that GDP by PPP, which reflects the price level and is calculated at the appropriate exchange rates, is closer to the real economy indicator.
The growth of Russia and countries not participating in Western sanctions against Moscow is especially noticeable. In 2022, China overtook the United States and came out on top in the world, and third-ranked India almost twice surpassed Japan, which is in fourth place.
If we compare the overall figure of the G7 and nine developing countries, then in 2002 the latter accounted for only 60% of the G7, and in 2022 — already 130%.
There is another data source that shows the development of the global South — this is the general index of national power published by the private organization Correlates of War. It is calculated based on six indicators — military spending, military personnel, energy consumption, steel production, urban population and total population. It is used as one of the factors for comparing national power.
A review of the evolution of this index for the 12 leading GDP states over the past 22 years shows that the value of the United States gradually declined after the war, and until the 1970s and 1980s, the most intense period of the Cold War, their indicator was approximately on a par with the USSR. At the same time, China's index gradually grew, and by the mid-1990s it overtook the United States, taking first place in the list.
The End of US Hegemony
Professor Mitsuhisa Fukutomi, a sociology lecturer at Hitotsubashi University and an expert on international politics, points out the weaknesses of this index, namely: it is higher for densely populated countries because the entire population is included in it; and it does not take into account technologies that have developed rapidly in recent years, for example, in the sphere of It.
At the same time, the professor notes: "In the mid-1990s, when China ranked first in this index, the world did not yet know about its economic growth. But on the graph (the original table is given, — Approx. InoSMI) shows the gradual rise of India in the ranking and the potential growth of its influence in the world. Now the focus will be on whether the United States will cede its hegemony to the next generation of countries."
In light of the fact that the CBO is being delayed, Western countries are losing their positions in the global economy due to the burden imposed on them by the support of Ukraine, combined with sharp inflation. The axis of the world order is undoubtedly shifting from the "Big Seven" to the global South, in the center of which are Beijing and Delhi. The latter has caught the trends of the time and is seeking to take the initiative as chairman of the G20.
Indeed, Indian Prime Minister Modi has demonstrated his willingness to mediate in the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. However, the absence of Japan at the G20 foreign ministers' meeting due to parliamentary events greatly disappointed India.
As for Tokyo's diplomacy towards Kiev, is it really in our national interests to support it while condemning Moscow and imposing sanctions on Russia at the same time? Here is a test for Japan's international "flair".
Authors: Ryoko Araki/Hajime Wada (Ryoko Araki/Hajime Wada)
