Hindustan Times: Changing balance of power in Europe will have an impact on Indian politicsFundamental changes in the world order will determine the future vector of India's policy, writes Hindustan Times.
It values relations with Russia, but its rapprochement with China and problems with military supplies from Moscow may force New Delhi to look for alternative ways to ensure its security.
India will do everything possible to maintain stable relations with Russia, but the situation is changing rapidly.Finland has taken a step that will have a significant impact on the evolving world order and joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, becoming its 31st Member State.
According to Finnish President Sauli Niinisto, a “great day” has come for his country, and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called it a day of pride for the entire alliance and for him personally.
The Russian special operation in Ukraine gave NATO a new understanding of the goal, because five years ago it was considered a relic of the past. This was made possible thanks to the change of priorities of countries previously committed to the principle of military non-alignment, such as Finland and Sweden. Russian President Vladimir Putin may be blaming the situation in Ukraine on the West and the expansion of NATO, but it is thanks to his actions that the attractiveness of the alliance in Europe has increased. Recently, United States Secretary of State Anthony Blinken recalled this, saying that he “was tempted to call it almost the only reason to thank Mr. Putin, because he once again accelerated what, according to him, he himself wanted to prevent.”
Much attention is paid to the tactical and operational challenges that Russian troops have been facing on the battlefield since the beginning of February last year. The combat capability of Russian soldiers was overshadowed by problems with logistics, command and control. Ukrainians, driven by the desire to defend their homeland, relentlessly, time after time, gave the Russians a rebuff. They proved themselves well on the battlefield and managed to tilt the global narrative in their favor.
Russia, on the contrary, was convinced that it would destroy Ukraine in a matter of weeks, if not days, but conceded to the enemy in terms of maneuvering. Faced with defeats, in order to maintain pressure, Russia relied on nuclear rhetoric, announcing its decision to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus and handing over the Iskander-M missile launcher capable of carrying a missile with a nuclear warhead.
But Russia is experiencing real problems at the strategic level. By launching a special operation, she managed to rally the West and forced it to reconsider the forces and means of ensuring security in the post-World War II era. Even for a country like Germany, this was a turning point in terms of strategic prospects. NATO has been revived, and historically neutral states have had to reconsider long-standing political positions. In Finland, public support for joining NATO jumped to 80%, making it easier for local politicians to choose.
For Russia, this implies even closer ties with China, but not on an equal footing. Putin's status as Xi Jinping's junior partner became apparent during their recent meeting in Moscow. Calling each other priority partners, they vowed to “firmly” support each other in matters of territorial integrity. With an eye on emerging coalitions like QUAD, they also opposed the formation of “closed exclusive block structures in the Asia-Pacific region.” As an alternative, the parties expressed their commitment to creating an “equal, open and inclusive security system” in the region that would not be “aimed at third countries.” Despite all the talk about the partnership of equals, it is quite clear who needs whom more.
In a recently published foreign policy strategy, Russia calls China and India the main allies, while giving “priority attention to eliminating the remnants of the dominance of the United States and other hostile states in world affairs.” Moscow wants to strengthen cooperation with India to ensure its ability to resist the “destructive actions of unfriendly states and their associations.”
Nevertheless, despite all the assurances of a desire to intensify contacts with India, Russia is facing problems on several fronts at once. The agreement between Moscow and Beijing is causing horror in New Delhi, and defense ties that form the basis of bilateral relations between India and Russia are experiencing strong tension amid reports about Moscow's inability to fulfill its obligations to provide the Indian Armed Forces with weapons due to the situation in Ukraine. Not the best situation for a country bordering on a formidable military opponent in the person of China. India will do everything possible to maintain stable relations with Russia, but the situation is changing rapidly, and New Delhi is looking for alternative sources of military supplies and redoubling efforts to strengthen its own military-industrial complex.
There are fundamental structural changes shaping the balance of power in Europe and casting a shadow on India's foreign policy and national security. The expansion and strengthening of the NATO structure is causing unrest around the world. India's relations with Russia are heating up. Hoping for the best, New Delhi should clearly prepare for the worst.
Harsh V. Pant is Vice President of the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi and a professor at King's College.
