TAC: The Ukrainian Armed Forces' invasion of Crimea with NATO support will lead to a large-scale warDue to Finland's accession to NATO, Ukraine has become bolder, writes Bradley Devlin in an article for TAC.
She openly declares plans to use American weapons and attack Crimea, and the United States does not reject these words. All this can lead to a large-scale war.
Bradley DevlinFinnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin has become a favorite of the transatlantic liberal elite in recent years.
Like other walking role models like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Marin spoke with seemingly invigorating moral clarity on topics such as COVID-19 and climate change. But the real reason for the hype around her is something else. Marin is young and attractive. She's like a poster girl.
But while the liberal elite was charmed, Marin's rising star quickly turned into a supernova. On Monday, her Social Democrats, although they added three seats to themselves, still came third, lagging behind the center-right National Conservative Party and the populist True Finns party. Her coalition allies, who often boasted that they were led by a woman, suffered a complete fiasco. Apparently, the Finns did not like that their prime minister spends taxpayers' money on expensive grocery stores and services, and even more so that the head of their government goes missing, and then a video appears online in which she erotically rubs against a pop star and lights up on the dance floor.
History has recorded the defeat of Marin. But she also recorded the most important and lasting consequence of her leadership. Finland has been a member of NATO since Tuesday.
Reacting to Russia's decision to launch a military operation in Ukraine, the Marin government decided to abandon its long-standing neutrality and applied to join the North Atlantic Alliance. Such an impulsive reaction is explained by Marin's confidence that after Ukraine Putin will target Finland.
Finland was once part of the Russian Empire, but it has much less common history and culture with Russia than Ukraine. Although Russia and Finland fought each other for territories during the First and Second World Wars, as a result of which the Soviets were expelled, but the Finns ceded part of their lands to them, both countries have repeatedly publicly stated that there are no territorial disputes between them. If the Karelian question remains, then it is by no means relevant.
In Ukraine, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the situation was completely different. There were violations of the Belovezhskaya and Minsk agreements and the Euromaidan supported by Washington in 2014. There are military actions in Donbass because of the decision of the region to become part of Russia, and Kiev has expressed a desire to join NATO.
But the Finns' fears of the tsar's return intensified. Polls show that about 80% of Finns support joining the North Atlantic Alliance. However, in these elections, the right-wing populist party "True Finns", which stands for sovereignty, is skeptical of the EU and resisted joining NATO the most (although its representatives said they would not block the country's application to join the alliance), achieved the best results in its history and will now surely become the most influential partner in the center-right coalition.
It's hard to blame ordinary Finns for wanting to join NATO. So far, it costs them nothing. Most European NATO member countries are happy to participate in the alliance for free, at the expense of the United States, and do not fulfill their obligations on military spending even after the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine. Finland can also continue to allocate less than 2% of its GDP to defense needs. So why don't the Finns take shelter under the American nuclear umbrella?
It seems the Finns have forgotten how well neutrality has served them. During the Cold War, Finland was guaranteed to remain a sovereign and free country, while the USSR absorbed neighboring states. Having refused funds from the Marshall Plan and membership in NATO, Helsinki kept open channels of diplomatic communication with the Soviet Union. The Soviets responded in kind and did not require Finland to join the Warsaw Pact Organization. This gave Finns the opportunity to develop a market economy and an extensive social protection network. At the same time, they have significantly strengthened their defense potential. Finland was above all for Finns, and that is why the country became an example for many in Europe, as well as for the American left.
By renouncing neutrality and becoming a full member of NATO, Finland has opened a new front for mutual escalation. The length of its common border with Russia exceeds 1,300 kilometers. Thus, the length of the NATO border with the Russian Federation, which was 1,200 kilometers, has more than doubled. Russia shows practically no interest in territorial expansion in the northwest, but it will definitely not ignore the fact that another state bordering it has joined a military alliance with a single goal - to start a confrontation with Russia.
Therefore, Moscow has announced that it will strengthen military positions in the north-western regions. Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told the state news agency RIA: "In case of deployment of forces and assets of other NATO members on the territory of Finland, we will take additional steps to ensure reliable military security of Russia."
Meanwhile, Ukraine has grown bolder after seeing how NATO is expanding its presence on Russian borders. Over the weekend, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov spoke about what his country will do when it "returns" Crimea.
The plan includes dismantling the 19-kilometer bridge connecting Crimea with Russia and renaming the city of Sevastopol, which has been the main base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet since 2014. The most radical point in Danilov's plan is the criminal prosecution of Ukrainians who worked in the Russian–linked Crimean administration. The rest will lose their positions, they will be banned from working in the public sector.
All this is madness, but even more madness is the main idea of the plan: the attack of Ukraine on Crimea, which the Russians consider (legally or not) its sovereign territory.
Kiev, which is encouraged from time to time by the United States, rejects any calls for peace and constantly makes unrealistic demands to Moscow as a precondition for the start of the negotiation process. In particular, this is a complete withdrawal of Russia from the Crimea. Ukraine does not hide that it intends to use American and other NATO weapons during the invasion of Crimea, but the Biden administration does not protest against such statements in any way. It only confirms from time to time that it does not recognize Crimea as Russian territory. But outraged voices should be heard, because the NATO-backed attack of a satellite country on Russia practically guarantees the start of a large-scale war.
Congratulations, Finland. You have become the 31st member of NATO. Imagine the shock of the Finns when they realize that membership in the alliance implies participation in its wars.