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"The Ukrainian military is waiting for the go-ahead." What is known about the preparation of the AFU counteroffensive

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Image source: Oleksandr Ratushniak/Reuters

Rogov said that Ukraine has completed preparations for a counteroffensive in Zaporozhye The Ukrainian army has accumulated reserves of personnel, ammunition and armored vehicles, thereby completing preparations for the offensive in the Zaporozhye region, said the head of the movement "We are together with Russia" Vladimir Rogov.

Earlier, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Alexey Reznikov announced the preparation of a spring counteroffensive. In the US, it is expected to begin "in the coming weeks." The possible direction of the AFU strike is called Melitopol, but Ukraine still lacks heavy weapons.

The chairman of the movement "We are together with Russia", Vladimir Rogov, said that the Ukrainian troops had accumulated reserves of personnel, ammunition and armored vehicles, thereby completing preparations for the offensive in the Zaporozhye region.

"They have finished preparing for their so-called "counteroffensive" by pulling considerable reserves of personnel, armored vehicles and ammunition into the Zaporozhye region," Rogov told RIA Novosti.

According to him, now the Ukrainian military are waiting for the "go-ahead", and their offensive "can happen at any moment."

"We are ready to meet the enemy fully armed," Rogov said and expressed the opinion that an attempt at a counteroffensive could be the "beginning of the end" for the Ukrainian army.

Rogov also called the "stuffing of the Ukrainian special services" reports about preparations for the evacuation of the local population in the region.

"There was nothing like that and there isn't. Russia is able to protect its territories and its citizens. The defense of our region is constantly being strengthened," he said. At the same time, the official proposed to strengthen the air defense system against the background of increased shelling of the region.

"Strengthening the air defense system will never hurt," Rogov noted and added that the Ukrainian army "hits in combination so that the air defense system chokes."

What is known about the counteroffensive

Politicians in Kiev and Western countries have repeatedly talked about the spring counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army. In particular, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Alexey Reznikov in an interview with the newspaper Wyborcza said that the Ukrainian troops are actively preparing for it, planning to start at the end of the rasputitsa.

"In spring, our land is very wet. Only tracked vehicles can be used. I think we will be able to see them [Leopard tanks] in April-May," the minister said and called on Kiev's European partners to strengthen military assistance with heavy equipment.

According to him, the offensive is planned in several directions, and during 2023 the world will see "very positive changes for Ukraine."

"I am sure that we will continue to liberate the temporarily occupied territories, as it was done in Kiev, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson," Reznikov claimed.

In turn, the President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine "are preparing to be strong in battle" and did not give specific details and timing of the counteroffensive in order not to allow the Russian side to prepare for it.

"But we will do it, and they should know it. They still have time to leave there, otherwise we will destroy them," Zelensky said during a visit to the Chernihiv region.

Washington expects Ukraine to launch its spring offensive "in the coming weeks," U.S. Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith said. The White House had previously promised Kiev that NATO would provide Ukraine with everything necessary for a counteroffensive.

Against the background of discussions of the counteroffensive, France promised to increase supplies of 155 mm shells to Ukraine.

"Paris will supply the equipment necessary for Ukraine's counteroffensive: we will double the supply of 155-mm shells to bring their number to 2 thousand per month," French Armed Forces Minister Sebastien Lecorny said in an interview with Le Figaro. He also said that "in the near future France will supply Kiev with the SAMP/T anti-aircraft missile system."

On March 27, a former adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Aleksey Arestovich, warned that the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army would result in huge losses if the West did not send long-range guns to Kiev.

"If we have such means, we will be able to successfully attack even with not very prepared troops. Otherwise, even trained infantry will pour a sea of blood," he said.

At the same time, according to the ex-adviser, at the moment we are not talking about the supply of long-range weapons. "Apparently, the upcoming counteroffensive will not be the last, so we will need help for the next one," Arestovich added.

"Time is of the essence"

According to the New York Times, Ukraine is ready for a spring counteroffensive, but the lack of weapons, losses and maintaining the motivation of troops can be a severe test. The authors of the publication believe that the offensive will begin "in the next month or so."

At the same time, according to journalists, "time is crucial," since "the US budget for military assistance is expected to be exhausted by about September." The newspaper quotes a Pentagon spokesman who called the last tranche of shells and missiles sent to Ukraine a "final attempt" because Ukraine's allies do not have enough ammunition.

In order to continue funding from the United States, Ukraine must "gain significant territory during the upcoming offensive," analysts interviewed by the publication believe. At the same time, Kiev's success in the offensive operation is "hardly guaranteed."

"The Allies were slow to send weapons, and the soldiers had to be content with accelerated courses of assault tactics," the NYT describes the problems faced by the Ukrainian army.

At the same time, it remains unclear whether the number of weapons is sufficient to break through Russian fortifications and minefields, the newspaper notes. These fields are one of the main dangers in a counteroffensive, since Russia has a wide arsenal of mines, military analysts point out.

In their opinion, during the counteroffensive, Ukraine may launch intensive artillery shelling of a narrow section of the front line, followed by sapper groups to clear the territory and tank attacks.

Experts predict that the depth of the offensive will be about 80 km, and the expected direction of the strike will be Melitopol.

"The attack on Melitopol will divide the territory held by Russia into two zones, cut supply lines and make Russian bases in Crimea accessible to Ukrainian artillery," the publication quotes military analysts.


Alice Andreeva

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