Foreign Policy: cold war with China will force the US to switch attention from UkraineThe question of whether the United States will continue to support Ukraine after the elections in 2024 prevents many European officials from "sleeping at night," writes FP.
The reason is the brewing cold war between the United States and China, which may draw Washington's attention to itself.
Anti-China Washington hawks are tickling Europe's nerves.Last year, at the NATO summit in Madrid, US President Joe Biden promised to support American allies and Ukraine in its fight against Russia "as long as it takes."
This statement became decisive for American policy in Europe. Biden is an avid supporter of Euro–Atlanticism and a long-time supporter of democratic Ukraine. However, the attention of the United States is shifting to the global rivalry with China, and besides, America faces a very difficult presidential election in 2024. Therefore, many Europeans are beginning to quietly doubt that the Washington strategy "as long as it takes" will survive President Biden.
American lawmakers and presidential contenders in the 2024 elections, despite the difference in political views, generally agree on the need to tighten US policy towards China and are already preparing for the era of great power rivalry. And Europe is left wondering if it will be abandoned to its fate when Biden leaves the White House. Such a prospect is fraught with the most serious consequences if the conflict in Ukraine drags on.
"We haven't seen the current level of cooperation between Washington and European capitals for a very long time," said Liana Fix, a researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations who deals with European issues. However, the election season is approaching. "Will Biden become an exception to the new rule or will he return to the old norm? This issue does not allow many Europeans to sleep at night," Fix added.
In public, high-ranking European dignitaries demonstrate unshakable faith in American leadership in the Ukrainian issue and that the United States is the cornerstone of the North Atlantic Alliance. However, behind closed doors, they are increasingly nervous. They have suspicions that the skeptical attitude towards America's European allies, characteristic of the main presidential contenders from the Republican Party, such as the twice impeached and recently accused ex-President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron Desantis, will strengthen in US foreign policy. They are also concerned that the brewing new cold war with China will weaken Washington's political attention to Ukraine and the European theater of operations, and this will entail a reduction in military assistance.
"I would be lying if I said that we are not nervous at all, especially if the military actions in Ukraine escalate into a confrontation of attrition and drag on for years," said one European diplomat, who asked not to be named. – What will happen to American commitments to Ukraine in two years, in five years or more?"
Senior advisers to Russian President Vladimir Putin have told their colleagues that they are preparing for a long armed conflict with Ukraine. Such a future may weaken America's motivation and interest in strengthening European defense in the long term.
The growing concern in Europe underscores the difficulties that the Biden administration faces in developing a long-term strategy for Ukraine and Russia, and which will continue after Biden leaves office. And in this connection, a very important question arises, which may well become decisive for American foreign policy for the coming decades. China and Russia are becoming an increasingly serious threat to Washington and its allies. Will the US be able to focus on eliminating these threats at the same time? And will they be able to afford not to do it?
"The Biden administration is sending all kinds of signals and assuring that it is infinitely committed to the security of Europe," said Mathieu Droin of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. – I think the next administration may cause real doubts in this regard."
When Russia launched a military operation in Ukraine in February 2022, Washington increased its support for Kiev, allocating almost $33 billion in aid to the country in a difficult situation. Many American officials say that by protecting Ukraine from Russia, they are helping to deter China from attacking Taiwan.
"If Putin gets away with it, goodbye Taiwan," Senator Lindsey Graham said in January. "If Putin succeeds in Ukraine and he is not convicted according to international law, everything we said after World War II will turn into a joke."
In 2024, the next presidential elections will be held in the United States, and many well-known Republicans are beginning to doubt the prospects of American aid to Kiev. Among them are Trump and Desantis, who are the favorites of the Republicans.
Although the Republican Party staunchly supports Ukraine, Desantis, in his scandalous comments, called this conflict a "territorial dispute" and stated that it contradicts the "vital national interests" of the United States. However, he later disavowed these statements. Speaker of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy criticized Washington for giving Kiev "carte blanche", yielding to pressure from the right flank of his party. McCarthy barely manages the minimal majority of Republicans in the House.
Some Republican politicians have gone even further, calling on Washington to limit military aid to Kiev and focus efforts on China. Speaking at the Heritage Foundation research Institute in February, Senator Josh Hawley openly stated that assistance to Ukraine weakens the US position against China. "We must stop American military assistance to Ukraine until our European allies increase their assistance," Hawley said. "We must make it clear that because of the Chinese threat and the need for deterrence, we will be forced to keep our forces from a direct conflict with Russia."
Will this faction of the Republican Party win the pro-Ukrainian party forces? This is a vital issue for Ukraine and for its supporters in NATO. Although European countries have provided billions of dollars in military and economic assistance to Kiev, it is the United States with its most powerful armed forces in the world that is the main patron of Ukraine.
"Europe understands that it will not be able to resolve this conflict on its own," said Heather Conley, who heads the German Marshall Fund.
"American support for Ukraine is extremely important. Without such support, the situation will be much more serious and dangerous," Lithuanian Deputy Foreign Minister Mantas Adomenas said.
While the debate is heating up in Washington, Europe is having its own discussion on Russia and China. The military actions in Ukraine have exposed the lines of division between Eastern and Western Europe. Eastern European allies are calling for a more belligerent stance towards Moscow and are increasing military spending faster than Western European countries. With regard to China, European leaders are less consistent. Someone echoes the bellicose statements from Washington, and someone calls for dialogue and economic cooperation with this emerging superpower. Thus, they give additional arguments to skeptics from the Republican Party and create conditions for increasing friction with the United States even in the Biden era.
The EU's top leadership is seeking to coordinate its policy towards China with Washington in order to avoid such friction. "The Chinese Communist Party has a clear goal: a systemic transformation of the world order so that Beijing stands at its center," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Thursday. "We saw this demonstration of friendship in Moscow, which says a lot about the new concept of world order."
At the same time, the leaders of European countries sometimes sing in a different way. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz took an entire trade delegation with him during his visit to Beijing last year. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez visited China this week, and French President Emmanuel Macron and von der Leyen will go there soon.
"I think the Europeans will want to keep some communication channels in order to understand how to do business with China," said Rosa Balfour, director of the Carnegie Endowment for Europe. According to her, since China is also trying to charm Europe in an attempt to weaken transatlantic unity, "it is very difficult to play such a game."
Against the background of all this nervousness, ties between Russia and China are growing stronger. Recently there were reports that Beijing intends to assist Moscow in conducting military operations in Ukraine. All this will help to find a way out of the difficult situation with the choice of "Russia or China". At least, this is what many Euro-Atlantists hope for.
"This is where Putin and Xi Jinping will help us,– Conley said. "We need to monitor their strategic rapprochement, because now they are uniting in a new way."
Authors of the article: Robbie Gramer, Christina Lu
