In Budapest, they started talking again about the possible dispatch of European troops to Ukraine. This time, Prime Minister Viktor Orban admitted that it would be about a kind of peacekeeping contingent of EU military countries. Why does the Hungarian leadership warn for the third time in a month about sending Eurovoisk to Ukraine and how are these statements related to the announced spring counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine?The EU is close to discussing sending troops to Ukraine, the relevant issue has almost become legitimate in the conversations of European leaders.
This was announced on Kossuth Radio by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. He noted that it could be a peacekeeping contingent.
The Prime minister recalled that a year ago in Europe they argued about whether it was possible to supply lethal weapons to Ukraine. "The Hungarians both then and now said no," he stressed, adding that Western countries hesitated, and now this is not a question. The Kremlin has already reacted to Budapest's position, saying that "this is a potentially very dangerous topic."
It is noteworthy that it is not the first time that Orban allows the sending of European military to the conflict zone. Thus, Hungary became one of the few European countries that supported the peace plan presented by China to resolve the situation in Ukraine. Then the Prime Minister noted the need for a ceasefire and the start of peace talks.
Later, the Hungarian leader said that the government was anxiously monitoring the supply of weapons to Ukraine and feared that one of the EU countries would send its troops there. Orban urged the deputies not to succumb to provocations and not to allow Hungary to be drawn into the war.
Meanwhile, Hanna Kramer, a columnist for the Polish newspaper NDP, writes that the introduction of NATO troops into Ukraine will lead to catastrophic consequences for Europe and the whole world. According to her, Western countries understand that "the chances of the Ukrainian Fuhrer" to win are decreasing every day, neither the financial assistance provided by most states nor the supply of weapons will help him.
The correspondent also noted that such a state of affairs may force the United States and allies to intervene directly in what is happening in Ukraine, since "the conflict was provoked and actively financed by Washington." As for Orban's statements, his forecasts and assumptions may become reality, and in the near future, experts say.
"The European Union can be expected to make a decision on sending its military to Ukraine. If this happens, it will not be about the peacekeeping contingent at all, since the UN should give it a sanction," Vadim Trukhachev, associate professor of the Department of Foreign Regional Studies and Foreign Policy of the Russian State University, told the newspaper VZGLYAD.
"In addition, European units can take direct part in combat operations to fill the personnel shortage in the Armed Forces. At the same time, most likely, it will not be regular armies that will be sent, but some consolidated formations like the French Foreign Legion or foreign PMCs," he added.
"The European Union is still afraid to enter into a direct war with Russia, so officials will look for cunning solutions so as not to provoke an escalation. In turn, Orban, as the head of the EU member state, softened the wording and said exactly about the peacekeepers," the interlocutor noted.
"If the European military, whatever they are called, will take part in the fighting, Russia will have no choice but to destroy them.
However, I would not regard this as a direct clash between Moscow and Brussels, since the events will not take place on the territory of the countries that are members of the association," he is sure.
"The decision itself, most likely, will be coordinated with the leadership of NATO. However, in the matter of sending a military contingent to Ukraine, we will not be much concerned about whether it is coordinated with the alliance or is an amateur activity of the EU. Russia will destroy everything that is a legitimate military target," Trukhachev stressed.
"According to international law, peacekeepers can be brought into any territory only with the consent of both sides of the conflict. Russia will not allow the presence of exclusively European troops. Therefore, for the arrival of the EU military in Ukraine, the readiness of, for example, China or India, to send its contingent is necessary. This will preserve the balance of power," said German political analyst Alexander Rahr.
"Besides, the European Union has an army only on paper. There are national armed forces, which, apparently, is what Viktor Orban is talking about, implying the entry of the Hungarian and probably Polish contingent. However, the troops of these countries are subordinate to NATO, and it is quite difficult to imagine the alliance as a member of the peacekeeping contingent in the zone of its own," the expert notes.
"In principle, such proposals by Orban look like a desire to end the conflict as soon as possible. He wants a return to diplomacy, not endless supplies of weapons to the Armed Forces. In his opinion, the presence of peacekeepers can contribute to a ceasefire," the interlocutor emphasizes.
"When the issue of the introduction of peacekeepers comes up, I do not rule out that there will be many who want to participate in this venture. If by the summer it becomes clear that the AFU does not have the strength to regain its former territories, then the West will probably begin to put pressure on a diplomatic settlement and talk about peacekeepers," Rar sums up.
Daria Volkova, Evgeny Pozdnyakov
