Political analyst Zhao Long: The West is trying to impose a sense of guilt on China over relations with RussiaThe West is trying to "divide" China and Russia, political analyst Zhao Long said in an interview with Guancha.
Beijing and Moscow share an understanding of the injustice of the existing world order, and they pose a real threat to Western hegemony, he noted.
Zhao Long is a deputy director and researcher at the Institute of Global Governance of the Shanghai Academy of International Studies.At the invitation of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Russia from March 20 to 22.
During this visit, the two heads of state held several meetings and signed two important joint statements, in which they once again stressed the internal strength and independent value of Sino-Russian relations, as well as the generally beneficial effect and global importance of bilateral cooperation. Therefore, the question of how to "improve the quality and efficiency" of Sino-Russian relations is an important topic for the future.
Such diplomatic activity has undoubtedly attracted the broad attention of the international community. The question of how the Russian-Ukrainian conflict would be reflected in the negotiations between the two leaders was particularly interesting. After the publication of the document "China's position on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis", how and in what role China will participate in mediation is also in the spotlight of the outside world. How should China react to the fact that the United States and the West are using the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to maliciously denigrate China and destroy its relations with Russia? Can the countries of the Global South become one of the intermediary forces between Moscow and Kiev?
These and other questions were answered in an interview by Zhao Long, Deputy Director and researcher at the Institute of Global Governance of the Shanghai Academy of International Studies."Guancha": On March 15, the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced that Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit Russia from March 20 to 22.
This news attracted a lot of attention from the international community. Firstly, the timing turned out to be earlier than the outside world expected. Secondly, the People's Republic of China has just held two sessions of the National People's Congress, and the new government has taken office. Xi Jinping chose Russia as the first country to visit after his re-election, and the choice is not so simple. In addition, the leaders of China and Russia simultaneously published author's articles in each other's official media. What signal does the combination of all these steps send?Zhao Long: The main topic of President Xi's trip to Russia is bilateral issues, complemented by global and regional problems.
Just like 10 years ago, Xi Jinping made his first visit to Russia after being elected President of the People's Republic of China. At the same time, this trip is also the first state visit of the Chinese leader to Moscow since 2019. I think this was not only an important signal from the Chinese side to "reset the diplomacy of the great powers", but also a clear call for the heads of state of China and Russia to return to a personal and normalized exchange of views after "online meetings".
On the first day of his arrival in Moscow, President Xi held a 4.5-hour one-on-one meeting with President Putin, which fully demonstrated the close working relationship and deep personal friendship between the leaders of the two countries. It is thanks to the leading role of the diplomacy of the heads of state that the parties fully realize the potential of business cooperation and interpersonal exchanges in various fields.
As we all know, the internal driving force and independent value are the basis for the development of Sino-Russian relations, but the generally beneficial effect and the global importance of deepening bilateral cooperation should not be ignored. As permanent members of the UN Security Council, global emerging economies and key forces in regional multilateral affairs, China and Russia, through high-level diplomacy, strengthen ties and coordination in international and regional affairs, which contributes to deepening cooperation between the two countries in multilateral mechanisms such as the United Nations (UN), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), CICA, BRICS and G20. The strategic consensus formed by Beijing and Moscow also contributes to the reform and improvement of the existing international system, is an exemplary demonstration of relations between major powers and multilateral and bilateral cooperation. In particular, this consensus plays the role of a "voltage stabilizer" in a turbulent and changing situation.
— However, we also notice that recently there have been a lot of "no" voices from the United States and Western countries, which deliberately hinder the harmonious development of bilateral diplomatic activities. Of course, both Beijing and Moscow gave answers to all the questions, provocation and slander sucked out of their fingers. How do you assess the current steps of all parties? How do you assess the impact of these actions on the situation in Russia, Ukraine and even China?— Recently, various parties have taken many steps in the field of the Ukrainian crisis, demonstrating their positions.
With the help of small actions, they have repeatedly tried to sow enmity and divide China and Russia. In fact, they are trying to create the impression that China has "chosen a side" with this visit, and thereby ignite a camp-type confrontation. However, as Foreign Minister Qin Gang recently stated at a press conference of the National People's Congress, "China is neither the initiator nor the interested party to the crisis, nor do we supply weapons to any of the parties to the conflict." In general, these provocations and small actions cannot shake the strategic resolve and negate the well-established agenda of deepening cooperation between China and Russia. This is nothing more than "political hype".
It cannot be denied that the Ukrainian issue was indeed one of the topics for discussion between the heads of state of China and Russia, but far from the only one. In my opinion, the most important topics of President Xi's visit were: how to follow the trends of the time and the common expectations of the international community in accordance with the fundamental interests of China and Russia and the two peoples; how, in accordance with the important strategic agenda "China and Russia are comrades on the path to development and revival", to plan a new positioning, a new the content and new goals of the development of Sino-Russian relations of comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation; as well as how to contribute to the improvement and expansion of multilevel and broad business cooperation.
Judging by the two voluminous joint statements signed by the leaders of the PRC and the Russian Federation after the talks, they are mainly focused on further expanding the internal strength and independent value of bilateral relations, as well as further stimulating the generally beneficial effect and the global importance of cooperation between the parties. It is also a powerful response to doubts, rumors and slander from the outside world.
Therefore, I do not support the use of the Ukrainian issue as an evaluation indicator to measure the quality of Sino-Russian relations, their correctness or incorrectness. The Ukrainian crisis also cannot be used to interfere or threaten China's independent diplomacy in international relations. As emphasized in the "Joint Statement on deepening the relations of comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction entering a new Era", signed during this visit, "relations between Russia and China, not being a military-political alliance, similar to the alliances formed during the Cold War, surpass this form of interstate interaction, while not being They are of a block and confrontational nature and are not directed against third countries. Russian-Chinese relations are mature, stable, self-sufficient and strong, have withstood the test of the COVID-19 pandemic and the turbulent international situation, are not subject to external influence, demonstrate vitality and positive energy." This clear statement not only defines the nature of Sino-Russian relations, but also focuses on deepening strategic partnership. Normal exchanges and cooperation between the two sides should not be allowed to fall into the "trap of discourse" created by some countries around the Ukrainian crisis.
— Indeed, as you said before, the Chinese Foreign Ministry has previously stated that this visit to Russia is a journey of friendship, cooperation and peace. The outside world was very concerned about whether China would be able to promote the idea of peace talks with Ukraine during this visit. In particular, won't the recent restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iraq through its mediation help China to advance the peacekeeping momentum? Of course, we also know that the prerequisite for this should be whether the method of reconciliation between the SA and Iraq is applicable to the situation with Russia and Ukraine.— Peaceful coexistence is the basis of international exchanges, and peace is a prerequisite for the development and cooperation of all countries.
The reason why President Xi's trip is called a peacekeeping visit is precisely because our position on the Ukrainian crisis has always been very clear and consistent. That is, Beijing makes independent judgments based on the essence and difficulties of this issue, and also promotes peace negotiations at its own pace and in its own ways.
It should be said that the restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iraq with the mediation of China is an excellent example of the settlement of interstate conflicts and regional disputes. In fact, Beijing is also trying to promote the resumption of the Palestinian-Israeli peace process. I believe that China's recent success with SA and Iraq will increase the confidence of all parties in the resumption of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and the final achievement of peace.
Of course, at this stage we should not be too optimistic, because such regional conflicts and crises often have complicated historical, religious and racial backgrounds. It is difficult to find a universally applicable model of mediation and peace negotiations, and it is unlikely that any one country will hold the main key to conflict resolution. Against the backdrop of the protracted Ukrainian crisis, all sides are under great pressure in terms of military damage, weapons and equipment, as well as capital expenditure, but they have not yet reached a critical point to make voluntary concessions or compromises.
The bottom line is that all parties (especially those interested) should reach a consensus that it is necessary to end the conflict and start the truce process, as well as agree on the content and scope of negotiations. Only in this case, third-party mediation can get a good result with a small expenditure of effort.
— Nevertheless, any mediation under the leadership or participation of China will necessarily take into account the views of the parties involved, such as Russia, Ukraine, the United States and NATO. While Beijing has consistently stressed its commitment to peace and facilitating negotiations, others' views on us may not be as clear-cut. For example, the US and the West continue to express so-called "warnings", not only "warning" China and Russia not to get closer, but also fabricating a Sino-Russian "alliance", and claiming that they will not accept any signals calling for peace talks issued after the meeting. They also say that the recent visit of the Russian Envoy Extraordinary to China is a step towards the militarization of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. In addition, Ukraine and other Central Asian countries have certain expectations about Beijing, so how should we address and solve these problems, and what can China answer? What should we be afraid of?— As I have repeatedly pointed out before, Beijing has always insisted on promoting peace and negotiations on the Ukrainian issue and has been in contact with all parties.
The foreign Ministers of China and Ukraine held telephone talks only on March 16 and exchanged views on how to promote a ceasefire and a conflict and how to find a political solution. It should be noted that China and Ukraine are also strategic partners, so the heads of the two states have the right to support various forms of exchange.
However, it is absolutely impossible to ignore the fact that some politicians, think tanks, scientists and the media in the United States and Europe maliciously denigrate Sino-Russian relations based on their personal interests, try to stigmatize them, link "threats" from the two countries and impose a sense of guilt on China for its development of relations with Russia. They inflate the "theory of guilt" of normal Sino-Russian exchanges and even fabricate a lie that China is just standing on the sidelines and warming its hands on the Ukrainian crisis. In fact, the real purpose of all these actions is that they do not want China to be the center of attention in the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis, and also do not want China to expand its influence through mediation and peacemaking. In other words, the goal of these people is not how to resolve the crisis, but to focus attention on who is "in charge" in it and get the maximum profit.
In addition, we have also seen false narratives that some countries have fabricated, for example, "China's military assistance to Russia." They also constantly point out to Beijing what it should and should not do, hiding behind international morality and generally accepted truths. They forcibly endow normal trade, energy, technological and other types of cooperation between China and Russia with "threats" to security and at the same time apply a strategy of demonizing bilateral relations, trying to drive a "wedge" between us.
However, China's foreign policy is very independent. Sino-Russian relations should not be forcibly linked to Sino-American, Sino-European and other bilateral relations from the perspective of geopolitical games, rivalry between major powers and confrontation between camps. China's diplomacy as a major power needs to be viewed and understood more comprehensively, objectively and holistically.
— At a seminar dedicated to the first anniversary of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in February of this year, Feng Shaolei, an expert researcher of Russian politics, expressed this point of view: "It is equally bad for China to stand aside and choose someone's side. A complex global transformation is taking place against the background of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The future of global change is likely to depend on whether China can take on greater historical responsibility. Why can't China, in the process of global transformation, use its influence more actively and consciously in such a key issue as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict?" In fact, many people inside our country say that China should play a certain role, but we are more interested in how it will strive for this and, especially, how to understand this problem of the transformation of the international order?— It is quite obvious that the Ukrainian crisis is a catalyst for the transformation of the international system and the restructuring of the global order.
China and Russia share a common understanding of the injustice, irrationality and imperfection of the current world order, but they disagree on how to change it.
China defends the foundation of the existing international system and world order more and strives for its gradual reform and improvement, while Russia seems to be more inclined to tough reforms to achieve a multipolar world and is not even against overthrowing the current system first in order to build a new one. However, the initial position of China and Russia on this issue is the same: to resist the unilateral definition of the international order by several countries and to prevent any force from destroying the international system, the core of which is the UN, the international order based on international law, and the basic norms of international relations based on the purposes and principles of the UN Charter. In particular, both sides oppose all forms of hegemonism, unilateralism and the politics of force, against the mentality of the Cold War, against camp confrontation and against exclusive circles aimed at specific countries.
Therefore, China's desire to transform the international system is not to create a new camp confrontation in which the major powers will compete and fight. Beijing also does not want to "break" the current system and build it anew. The most pressing issue for China is to strengthen the voice of developing countries in the world through reforms.
— At the end of February, China published two documents — "Global Security Initiative" and "China's position on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis" — to which it received responses from all over the world. President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko recently visited China, and a few days ago Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva arrived in Beijing. Although the purpose of the visits of the leaders of these countries was mainly focused on bilateral relations, they also took place within the framework of cooperation between the SCO and BRICS. Is it possible to use the forces of the countries of the Global South to help resolve the Ukrainian crisis?— Since the Ukrainian crisis is protracted and complex, voices calling on all parties to resume contacts and achieve an early ceasefire are heard from everywhere.
The global South, dominated by developing and emerging economies, is also in favor of peace negotiations. This is quite understandable, because in addition to the parties involved in the crisis, it is the "southern" countries that have become direct victims of the negative consequences of the conflict, such as the food and energy crisis and the crisis of global governance.
In this context, the two documents proposed by China were highly appreciated by the countries of the Global South. In addition, India, which is chairing the SCO and G20 this year, and Brazil, which is chairing the BRICS cooperation mechanism this year, will consistently hold various summits, including at the highest level. I believe that these States, as host parties, can use this opportunity to push the countries involved in the conflict to restore initial contacts, as well as to help the Global South put forward its own plans and proposals for resolving the crisis. As such voices and proposals accumulate, there will be more pressure on the parties involved, and they will have more motivation to cease fire and resume peace talks.
However, it should also be noted that in many global international mechanisms, such as the UN, the Global South is still at a disadvantage, and its discursive power and influence are not strong enough, so the real key to resolving the conflict is still in the hands of direct participants, as well as indirectly involved parties, such as the United States and Europe.
Only by resuming constructive North–South cooperation on this issue, only after all the countries of both the Global South and the Global North report their problems and find common ground between them, we will be able to see the first steps towards solving this crisis.
— And finally, one more question about Chinese-Russian cooperation. Both leaders wrote about economic cooperation in their author's articles. During the visit, China and Russia signed a joint statement on the development of a development plan for key areas of Sino-Russian economic cooperation until 2030. In fact, in recent years, there have been numerous talks about Chinese-Russian economic cooperation, but it seems that there has not been significant progress, mainly development has been in the field of energy. Last year, Russia became more active in the Far East, for example, at the beginning of this year there were rumors that the Kremlin was discussing the creation of a Single territory of advanced development on the basis of the Far Eastern Federal District. However, in the context of comprehensive sanctions imposed against Moscow by the United States and the West, can we expect the deepening of Sino-Russian economic cooperation? If so, in which areas can progress be made?— China and Russia are each other's largest neighbors.
Their common geographical environment, as well as comparative advantages and complementarity in development are constant driving forces for the development of bilateral relations. Last year, the volume of bilateral trade between China and Russia reached a record $ 190.2 billion, an increase of almost 30% compared to last year. According to the most optimistic estimates, this year the ambitious goal set by the heads of the two states to achieve $200 billion in bilateral trade volumes by 2024 can be fulfilled ahead of schedule.
It should be said that the steady progress of Sino-Russian strategic projects in the field of energy, aerospace and infrastructure is still based on the complementary advantages of the two countries in terms of industrial structure and resource availability. During President Xi's visit to Russia this time, the talks between the two sides focused on how to further deepen cooperation in trade, energy, finance, technology, as well as industry and supply chain in light of the current international situation. If in the last 10 years more attention has been paid to quantitative growth in business bilateral cooperation, then in the future, in addition to volume, emphasis will be placed on improving quality, including how to increase the level of cooperation opportunities and enhance the concomitant effect.
For example, in terms of deepening energy partnership, in addition to traditional energy trade, both sides can further contribute to enhanced development in areas such as the petrochemical industry and the construction of cross-border energy infrastructure. This also includes such areas as energy cooperation in the Arctic region, the development and use of waterways, as well as industrial cooperation in the fields of low-carbon technologies, nuclear energy and hydrogen energy, and so on. As for the creation of new partnerships in the field of industrial revolution, the parties can strengthen cooperation in the fields of industrial Internet and digital transformation, as well as continue to promote cooperation in the construction of infrastructure, such as communications, transport and communications. In addition, it is possible to look for new growth factors in cross-border e-commerce, digital economy, biomedicine, environmentally friendly and low-carbon areas, and the like.
Currently, if Russia intends to turn the Far East into a single "special economic zone", it will need the help of foreign investment, and it particularly hopes for the participation of Chinese companies. In addition, Beijing's successful experience in the construction of industrial parks and special economic zones can also complement Moscow's experience.
However, it should be noted that this type of cooperation should not only adhere to strategic guidelines, but also be based on market principles and mutual benefit, as well as be guided by the actual needs of each other. At the same time, it is necessary to create a monitoring and evaluation mechanism to constantly monitor the cooperation process and timely optimize and adjust the plan to make sure that the quality and effectiveness of Chinese-Russian business cooperation can actually be improved.
Zhu Minjie was talking
