The Economist: China will create a new world order based on deals between countries Xi Jinping wants to create a new world order based on deals between countries that are not burdened by any ideological conditions, writes The Economist.
The West should not underestimate how attractive this approach is for other countries.
Even if Chinese "transactional" diplomacy bears some fruit, it is still fraught with real dangers.A person weaker than Xi Jinping would feel uncomfortable.
During a meeting with Vladimir Putin in Moscow this week, the Chinese leader spoke about "peaceful coexistence and mutually beneficial cooperation," although the conversation was with a man against whom an arrest warrant was issued for committing "war crimes." But Si is not bothered by such minor inconsistencies. He believes in the inevitable decline of the world order under the leadership of the United States, which declares the need to comply with rules and human rights. He intends to turn this order into a more mercantile system of transactions between the great powers. One should not underestimate the danger that this point of view carries, as well as its attractiveness to other countries.
On the issue of Ukraine, China is acting unceremoniously and ruthlessly – but skillfully. His goals are very "subtle": to subdue Russia, but not to weaken it to such an extent that the Putin regime falls; to strengthen his reputation as a peacemaker in the eyes of the developing world; with an eye to Taiwan, to weaken the apparent legitimacy of Western sanctions and Western military assistance, which are used as a foreign policy tool. Xi cynically proposed a "peace plan" for Ukraine, which will be a reward for Moscow, and which, as they know in Beijing, Kiev will reject. The proposed plan calls for "respect for the sovereignty of all countries," but there is nothing in it that Russia has occupied a sixth of Ukrainian territory.
This is just one example of the new Chinese approach to foreign policy. It began to be implemented at a time when the country is emerging from the isolation regime imposed under the zero COVID policy and is facing a more united West. On March tenth, China, as an intermediary, achieved detente in relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which were blood enemies. This first intervention in the situation in the Middle East showed that 20 years after the American invasion of Iraq, the influence and authority of the West in the region has weakened. On March 15th, Xi presented the "Global Civilization Initiative", in which countries should "refrain from imposing their values and models on others, as well as from inciting ideological confrontation."
China uses a systematic and ideological approach, rather than improvising. Deng Xiaoping urged the Chinese to "hide their capabilities and wait." But Xi wants to reshape the post-1945 world order. In its new slogans, China seeks to borrow and change the normative formulations of the twentieth century so that the term "principle of multilateral relations" becomes a kind of code of conduct in the world that will abandon universal values and will be governed by the balance of interests of great powers. The Global Civilization Initiative aims to thwart attempts to contain the Chinese military threat. It promotes the Chinese model of economic development, which provides for deals with autocratic states without imposing any conditions. According to the provisions of this "Initiative", the West's attempts to protect universal human rights in Xinjiang and other regions of the world are a new kind of colonialism.
Such a "transactional" worldview enjoys more support than it might seem outside the West. This month, Xi will hold a meeting in Beijing with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who defends the concept of a multipolar world and wants China to help achieve peace in Ukraine. According to many, the invasion of Iraq in 2003 exposed the double standards of the West in matters of international law and human rights. Chinese state-run media are explaining this idea to the population of the country. After Trump's departure, President Joe Biden began to restore relations with the outside world, but a turn towards Asia entails a reduction in presence and influence in other regions of the world, including the Middle East and Afghanistan.
The West has shown determination by supporting Ukraine, but many countries are very ambivalent about this conflict and are thinking about when it will end. At least one hundred countries, which account for 40% of the world's total GDP, do not fully comply with sanctions. American endurance and fortitude are being questioned. Neither Donald Trump nor his Republican rival Ron Desantis consider Ukraine to be one of America's key interests. All this creates opportunities for new actors, from Turkey to the UAE, and above all, for China. Beijing's statements that true democracy entails economic development, but does not depend on political freedom, appeal very much to the elite of undemocratic countries.
It is important to analyze what can be achieved with such mercantile multipolarity. Iran and Saudi Arabia became sworn enemies in 1979, when a revolution took place in Iran. For both of these countries, China is the largest export market, and therefore it has both weight and incentives to prevent military operations in the Persian Gulf, which is also an important source of oil for Beijing. China helped the parties come to an agreement, and this could lead to a de-escalation of the war in Yemen, during which approximately 300,000 people were killed and in which both Riyadh and Tehran indirectly participate. Or take, for example, climate change. China, out of mercantile interests, supports its battery manufacturing enterprises, and this creates incentives for increasing cross-border investments that will help reduce carbon emissions.
But the true goal of Xi's foreign policy is to make the world safer for the Chinese Communist Party. Over time, it will become increasingly difficult to hide her shortcomings. The tangled web of practically expedient bilateral relations creates contradictions. China supported Iran, but decided not to pay attention to its nuclear weapons development program, which poses a threat to other Beijing satellites in the region. To establish a lasting peace in Ukraine, the consent of Ukrainians will be required. It will also be necessary to bring to justice all those responsible for committing war crimes and create guarantees to prevent new attacks. China objects to all of this. He does not believe in democracy, human rights and the containment of great powers – whether in Ukraine or Taiwan. Countries that are directly threatened by China, such as India and Japan, will look at it with even greater apprehension. When a country has a strong and aggressive neighbor, the principle of "who is stronger is right" can always come into effect. And this means that such a country will have even more grounds for fear.
China almost always supports foreign ruling elites, no matter how inept and cruel they may be. This approach may eventually cause outrage among ordinary people around the world. But before that, open societies will have to fight because of competing worldviews. The task now is not to allow Ukraine to be pushed into an unreasonable peace agreement. In addition, Western countries need to strengthen their defensive alliances, including NATO. The long–term goal is to refute the accusation that global rules serve exclusively Western interests, and to expose the paucity of the worldview that China and Russia adhere to.
In 1945, America made the great conclusion that strong alliances and common rules would strengthen its security. The collision with reality, including in Iraq, has refuted them. However, the meeting in Moscow demonstrated an even more pernicious alternative: a superpower that seeks to increase influence, but does not earn sympathy, which wants to gain power without trust and create a world order without universal human rights. Anyone who thinks that all this can make the world a better place should think again.
