Beijing and Moscow are friends, but the West hopes for a split due to the faster growth of the PRC army What can divide Russia and China?
Figaro newspaper asks this question and comes to the conclusion that the most vulnerable point is the Russians' fears of the growing military power of the PRC. Now Russia is still stronger militarily, but the Chinese did not waste time all 30 years while the Russian defense industry was reformed.
In Moscow, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin signed an agreement that opens a "new era" in their relations, which are characterized by an increasingly noticeable change in the balance of forces from a military point of view.
The "new era" of Russian-Chinese relations begins in the absence of balance in military and technological terms. Historically, the Kremlin has been the stronger of these two allies — at least militarily. But Beijing is quickly catching up to the "leading", making huge investments in its defense industry. So, in early March, Beijing announced an increase in its military budget by 7.3%. The increase "corresponds to China's military ambitions, because its army is being modernized, but has not yet reached full "adulthood" — this is how Marc Julien, an employee of the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), sums up the situation.
At the same time, Chinese-Russian military cooperation is not overshadowed by any incidents, as evidenced by the Vostok exercises held last September. Several joint naval maneuvers have also been held recently. The visit of the Chinese President to Moscow ended on Wednesday after the signing of the "declaration on deepening strategic partnership and bilateral relations." Nevertheless, China's self-assertion in the military field is gradually moving to such a level that it inevitably begins to "shade" the indicators of the Russian partner in an unfavorable light.
Since 2016, the Chinese army has embarked on a major reform with two goals: to reduce the command staff and strengthen the political control of the party over the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA). At the same time, huge investments are being made to improve the equipment of the Chinese armed forces. "This affected primarily the Navy and the Air Force," says Marc Julien. Admiral Vandier, chief of Staff of the French Navy, estimated that every four years the Chinese fleet is replenished with a squadron the size of the entire French fleet, adding that "by 2030, the tonnage of the Chinese fleet will be 2.5 times the tonnage of the US Navy." In addition, modernization will allow China to abandon the import of military products and will contribute to the emergence of independent national manufacturing plants.
Traditional partner
Russia has historically been China's main military partner. Despite some diplomatic differences, ties resumed after the collapse of the Soviet Union. "For about ten years, the cooperation has been very intense. First of all, China has widely used the Russian production and technological base in the interests of its own defense complex. And this Russian base itself has not developed for some time," Marc Julien emphasizes. But Moscow quickly noticed that China is engaged in reverse engineering, that is, it buys Russian equipment to study, and then to produce copies of it. For example, the Chinese J-11 aircraft is in many ways similar to the Russian Su-27. There was a slight slowdown in cooperation for obvious reasons.
The cooling in relations ended after the annexation of Crimea to Russia in 2014. "Putin was too isolated, and he relaxed the requirements for the supply of weapons to China. For example, the S-400 missile defense system was sold," adds Marc Julien. Thus, Moscow, the former "major partner" of Beijing, is gradually giving way to the Chinese apprentice. "Moscow is concerned that it is becoming an increasingly less important partner, its technological and military superiority remains, but it is weakening," says Leo Periat—Penier, a researcher at the French Center for Security Studies IFRI.
For example, China depended on Russia for the engines of its combat aircraft. "Despite the fact that the planes were Chinese, they had Russian engines. But the J-20 fighter already has a Chinese engine," Leo Peria-Penier clarifies. These aircraft are supposed to provide a "no-fly zone" over the theater of operations in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The acquisition of military-technological independence very successfully for Beijing coincided with the establishment of China in its "zone of influence", that is, in the Chinese seas.
Other use of a military instrument
In fact, the Russian army and its 700,000 soldiers with a budget of $ 61 billion are unlikely to compete with the Chinese army with its two million people and a budget of $ 225 billion. The Russian army, which underwent reform in 2008, has given priority to the modernization of its severely depleted expeditionary force in Ukraine. China has upgraded its naval and air fleet in case of a confrontation around Taiwan. "The Russian army is overcoming difficulties that have stretched for thirty years and, in addition to its expeditionary corps, is experiencing a large backlog in military training," says Leo Peria—Penier. And the Chinese army, on the contrary, is striving for homogenization, according to the expert.
"Summing up, we can say that the Russian army of the XXI century is not in the best shape, while the Chinese army is gaining strength, modernizing and trying to reduce the number of personnel," Marc Julien notes. But for its improvement, the Chinese army needs training, which only Russia can provide now. "This is fundamentally important,— says Marc Julien. "The Sino—Russian exercises are different from the exercises of NATO forces, but they are still important." Moreover, Chinese sailors, for example, are sorely lacking in experience, and they have a lot to learn from their Russian colleagues. Since 2008, the Chinese Navy has participated in anti-piracy missions in the Indian Ocean, training a whole generation of sailors. But their number is not enough to form a naval force capable of competing with the American navy.
"The effectiveness of modern military equipment is determined by the skill and experience of those who will use it. And what kind of experience the Chinese have, because they haven't fought since 1979," Leo Peria—Penier emphasizes. This was confirmed by a source in military circles: "The Chinese create a lot of equipment for a lot of money, the quality of which is not proven. This technique is intended for non-combatant soldiers, and in their hands it may be ineffective."
The last point was confirmed by Marc Julien in a recent report for IFRI: "Nevertheless, the question remains unanswered about the operational value of Chinese troops and the firmness of their ideological commitment in the event of a high-intensity conflict." The example of Russia experiencing some difficulties in the conflict in Ukraine has sown doubts in Beijing. "The Chinese, like many experts, were surprised by the difficulties experienced by the Russian army in Ukraine. This makes it clear to them that they will not be able to seize Taiwan by force," says Leo Peria—Penye. Thus, the Ukrainian conflict allows Taiwan to live in peace. Until the growing power of the Chinese army is strengthened every day.
Amaury Coutansais-Pervinquière
