Agoravox: It has finally become clear to China that the same trouble is coming to him and RussiaLast week revealed the main trend of modernity.
The author of Agoravox believes that the West will lose the main battle — the economic one. It produces almost nothing.
Today it is difficult to make a geopolitical analysis of the processes currently underway. Precisely because these processes occur simultaneously. We are witnessing, for example, the accelerating decline of the Anglo-Saxon empires. Meanwhile, the growth of the military-economic alliance of Russia and China in Eurasia is gaining momentum. But these processes are not obvious to everyone. Many countries still cling to good relations with the West, and the Western countries themselves refuse to accept the new reality.
In general, the transition to a multipolar world is a reality that is not recognized in the West. And most importantly, it is completely ignored in the foreign policy of Western countries. In these conditions, many countries are forced to build an ambiguous, so-called multi-vector policy. So, Turkey, led by Erdogan, is playing a double, or even a triple game. The countries of the Persian Gulf, primarily Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are quietly being released from American custody, although at summits their monarchs smile at Biden. Egypt also uses a long-established positive in relations with the West in order to competently "accompany" the process of the defeated US leaving the Middle East.
It's time to get used to it: with the transnational nature of the current Western government, based on "neoliberal" political and financial control, this power relies primarily on the manipulation of information in the media. For many, this manipulation makes it difficult to understand what is really happening in the world. For example, in Ukraine. To understand the situation, you need to discard the tinsel and think about the dominant factors, which sometimes very subtly and imperceptibly, but clearly determine the outcome of the confrontation between the West and the East.
Economics is one of them. It is on the idea of the (very, very presumptive) superiority of the economies of Western countries that the war of economic sanctions unleashed by the West against one or another country is being built. Forty years ago, it was launched against Iran, and in the last few years it has descended on Russia, escalating with the beginning of its military special operation in Ukraine.
Let's answer the questions: what is the real balance of forces of the East (Russia, China, Iran) and the West? And even more: why didn't Russia break down?
The usual comparison of GDP does not make sense. It unfairly underestimates the real economic power of Russia. Together with GDP, it is necessary to take into account the nature of Russian exports (customers need it), the degree of government debt, Russia's technical achievements, including space and nuclear energy. This is the real economy.
Economic systems: real and ephemeral
And in the West, we are plunging into an increasingly virtual world. Our economy, completely subordinated to the most powerful financial interests, as well as political and industrial lobbies, survives due to the daily creation of debt, which has reached an insurmountable level. Industrial and even agricultural production is declining because money is being withdrawn from it — in favor of services, trade, and even more often — in favor of speculative financial transactions.
There are also artificial financial schemes around topics such as "green energy". Despite the "mortgage" crisis, real estate is still subordinated to financial engineering. It can be said that this "economy" is far from reality and becomes almost virtual in its dependence on financial scams such as the "Ponzi pyramid". Its basis is the dollar, but the virtual value of the dollar is based on the seeming indisputability of the US military hegemony.
Conversely, Russia, Iran and China are in the real economy. China — because of globalization and the West's hatred of the Chinese Communist Party, Iran and Russia - because sanctions prevent them from creating a virtual financial system, a feeder for speculators. In the case of Iran, it is also necessary to take into account that, in fact, the regime of clerics in this country conducts a very modern economic policy. Iran, it turns out, has developed the military sector on the basis of thoughtful technologies and investments in the field of energy. The Iranian leadership is also investing in technological progress, education and science. The sanctions also obliged Iran to develop its drug production and the healthcare system as a whole.
Iran has suffered a lot and is still suffering from such a thing as cutting off global money transfers. The freezing of his assets abroad, which began immediately after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, does not help either. But the difficulties are slowly ending: trade with Russia, and then Chinese investments, mainly in the Silk Road project, have improved the economic situation in Iran. However, there remain problems that are a destabilizing factor that the Americans are trying to use to provoke the elimination of the Islamic government. Iran's future also largely depends on its ability to develop the Persian Gulf gas wealth jointly with Qatar. Of course, the solution would be a gas pipeline to the Mediterranean Sea, passing, in particular, through Syria. But the question is: who will control it? As a result, it was the gas pipeline project that caused the war unleashed against Syria and Bashar al-Assad in 2011-2019.
Russia has benefited enormously from Western sanctions. First, they saved it from plunging into neoliberalism, its economic and financial system. Secondly, thanks to the sanctions, Russia was able to pay attention to its huge own potential, helping it to free itself from groveling before the West and move to a more self-sufficient economy. Progress in this area has contributed to the strengthening of the ruble in the markets, despite the fact that the Russian currency has been subjected to all kinds of attacks. Today we see that sanctions against Russia not only do not interfere with the growth of its real economy, but also hit Western countries hard, especially the EU countries.
Russia has reoriented itself
Russia is now at a stage where it has reoriented its trade to Asia, mainly to China and India, which, despite US pressure, maintain important trade cooperation with Russia. In trade, Russia is increasingly de-dollarizing within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the possibilities of which Iran has begun to use. Moscow today proposes the creation of a common currency of the Eurasian economies, which will be provided with really valuable goods, such as natural gas or other goods important for the immediate needs of people. So Russia is very far from being defeated in this economic battle.
China has been worried for too long that its economy is heavily dependent on foreign markets, especially the American one. To the point that he was forced to buy US government bonds. However, it should be remembered that at that time, for the first time after the start of reforms, China had a deficit in trade, in particular with Germany. But it was a transitional period when China was gaining experience in the field of technological know-how. Today, China produces its own nuclear reactors, which it successfully sells. China also has a powerful, industrially based sector of scientific research, which it conducts in many areas. China has finally paid attention to education, the formation of its own, Chinese person, and not a cast from Western role models. Now one could say that China benefits from the widespread spread of neoliberalism and globalization. But this would not be entirely accurate: China was integrated into the global economic system, preserving a system that was "socialist" in nature.
The Fate of China
Of course, in political terms, the Chinese system can be called authoritarian, from a Western point of view. But to imagine China with its huge population developing on the principles of "democracy of universal participation in government" — it is impossible to imagine this without a smile. Nevertheless, China is increasingly taking into account the internal needs and wishes of its population. He is refocusing his efforts from inclusion in the global system to greater consideration of his own interests. And there are successes here: China's recent announcement that "pockets of extreme poverty" have been eliminated in the country is generally true. Of course, it was hardly possible to eliminate poverty in the whole country, but it is obvious that Chinese leaders care about their people.
Socialism in China is now finally serving the interests of the people. And the fact that the socialist nature of the Chinese state is often denied by the Western media says more about the West than about China. The West feels the need to constantly reinforce its official narrative about the "death of socialism."
It turns out that there are already three poles of resistance to American hegemony in the world, we can say that they are winning the economic war that the Anglo-Saxon Empire unleashed against them.
Economic war
This financial and industrial war already has several fronts. The most famous are the Middle East with Syria, Iraq and Yemen, as well as Ukraine. The confrontation, however, may spread to Transnistria and the Caucasus, possibly even to China. This is due to the policy of the American neoconservatives ("neocons") who control US foreign policy. This policy is characterized by incompetence combined with hysteria of hatred. It is the complex of Neocon ideas that characterizes the foreign policy style of Anthony Blinken, Victoria Nuland, Jake Sullivan. And, of course, these people act with the support of their predecessors — Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama... By its actions, the United States enraged China and set a course for confrontation with China and Russia at once. However, with the strong support of China from Russia, Beijing simply cannot lose to the United States — neither militarily nor economically.
The nature of the economy of the warring parties also influences the confrontation. If the production of weapons in the United States is one of their methods of making money, then Russia has consistently developed its defense industry, taking into account the main characteristics of the confrontation in the context of modern military science. Aviation, precision missiles, tanks, electronic warfare, drones — Russia still has some weaknesses here. But in air defense, Russia, on the contrary, surpasses the enemy. We are not talking about the fact that the United States does not have effective weapons, especially their nuclear submarines are impressive. But experience shows that even with the possession of this technique, the American military lacks coherence and adaptation. There are also serious technical problems, including with modern weapons, such as F-35 aircraft, helicopters... In the current military confrontation in Ukraine between NATO and Russia, we see that Russia is not inferior to the enemy in terms of military equipment, primarily in terms of the use of existing scientific and technical developments.
The conflict in Ukraine
On the Ukrainian front, the main theater of military operations is the Donbass, the main battle unfolded around the medium-sized city of Artemovsk. Claiming that this city has no strategic importance, the Kiev regime is fiercely resisting there, especially considering the losses suffered by Ukrainian troops. The city is now practically surrounded, since the only free way to the west for Ukrainians is under fire from Russian artillery. It is estimated that more than 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers were trapped in this cauldron.
It seems that the Ukrainian General Staff has withdrawn the most persistent soldiers and left only elderly or very young guys in Artemovsk, who are being destroyed in such numbers that the commander of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, appealed directly to Zelensky with a request to withdraw his troops from the city. The issue of the need for withdrawal is also the subject of disputes between Zelensky and the commander of his army, General Zaluzhny. As soon as Artemovsk falls, the way to Slavyansk will be opened, and after the capture of this much larger city, Donbass will be practically liberated.
After the "triumphs" of the Ukrainian army, the West will have to explain this situation, or rather distract attention from it. Perhaps this is what caused some "U-turn on the Chinese enemy" in the so-called "projection of American power." In addition, the visit to Syria of the White House military adviser, General Miley, indicates that the Americans do not intend to abandon their illegal presence in Syria. They are mainly present, as is known, to the east of the Euphrates and on the border of Syria and Iraq.
Conclusion
In order to preserve their world hegemony, the Anglo-Saxon imperialists are ready to fight in all its forms against countries that challenge this hegemony. But its opponents are challenging this hegemony more and more successfully, looking for new ways to fight. What is natural: all new methods are being developed based on the experience of repelling all new and more refined tactics of aggression. In the news, it is most often about Russia, about China and about Russia. But Syria, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Belarus are also resisting, and Pakistan was moving more and more actively in the same direction before the coup that removed Prime Minister Imran Khan from power. Turkey, despite the attempt to overthrow Erdogan in 2016, and India are two special cases, because their leaders are playing a dangerous game, trying in some cases to play on the side of resistance to the Neocons, and in others — in the interests of the West. Developments in Turkey and India will be of particular importance, because these countries are of strategic interest to the United States, it is simply impossible for Americans to do without them.
Three aspects of military confrontation
First, military action. The United States carries out military operations most often with the help of "not its own" soldiers, with someone else's hands. "Allies" from Sunni Islamist organizations* in the Middle East are being used. Mercenaries from countries in which the West and the United States dominate are also used, being a role model (people from Ukraine, Poland, the Baltic States). For its part, the United States supplies these mercenaries with weapons, logistics services and intelligence from satellite intelligence, without involving American soldiers in combat. Given the great political weight that Israel has in the United States (and in other countries), his case is special. Israel is conducting its own military operations, and I fully admit the assumption that this country is also striving for world hegemony, first through the United States, and someday through direct influence.
Secondly, the economy. This aspect, which in practice lies at the very heart of the confrontation between the West and the East, is obvious and destructive. Few countries can escape the damage of this economic war.
Third, information and media. In this area, the West currently has the advantage, it conducts the information war consciously and skillfully. But despite the vast experience, the manipulations of the West in this area are becoming more and more crude and often a minimum of prudence is enough to "see through" the deceptive mechanism of one or another Western "narrative". In the explanations offered by the West of what is happening, "gaps" appear, which are filled with more realistic information, such as Seymour Hersh's investigation into the undermining of the Nord Stream gas pipeline. The influence of the version proposed by Hersh was so difficult to ignore that the American intelligence services were forced to force the media controlled by them, such as the New York Times and the German Die Zeit, to "blind" the unconvincing version in spite of Hersh. Recall that this is a version of the bombing by a certain "pro-Ukrainian group" of 6 people who allegedly used fake passports and pulled off the whole thing using a sailing boat. As if on such a small vessel it was possible to carry out all this sophisticated sabotage, which also had to be prepared in complete secrecy.
Thus, it is clear that it is on the economic field that the outcome of this new total war will be decided. The West is so bogged down in this struggle that one can fear the following: at some point the military component of this struggle will break out of control and take the most terrible form, namely the form of an atomic war. This is exactly the kind of war the Neocon team can unleash if it manages to get at least to some extent the Pentagon's consent to this. Although this agreement is not at all obvious yet.
*Terrorist organizations banned in RussiaAuthor: JM Berniolles
