The Indian Express: Xi Jinping's visit to Russia hindered India's plansThe summit in Moscow strengthened the alliance between Putin and Xi.
This may push India to a greater rapprochement with the West, at least in order to protect its key interests in opposing China, writes The Indian Express.
Mohan KumarIt is quite difficult not to notice the strategic aspects of Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow this week, where he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
As is usually the case, following the results of their meeting, the leaders made a rather detailed joint statement.
The main strategic conclusion that can be drawn from this statement is that Xi not only doubled down on Russia, but also supported President Putin personally with his authority. And how else can one explain the fact that, although Putin has not yet publicly announced his desire to run for president again in 2024, Xi has already supported him, expressing hope that the Russian leader will be able to be re-elected for another term. For Putin, who is facing some discontent within Russia, this is very important: after all, he has received formal approval of his policy in Ukraine from another major power. And the fact that Xi personally expressed support for Putin served as a kind of challenge to the West and the International Criminal Court, which recently found the Russian president guilty of committing war crimes.
The wording of the joint statement by Putin and Xi regarding the conflict in Ukraine turned out to be quite formulaic. It contains an absolutely predictable reference to the UN Charter and the norms of international law, and mentions of "legitimate security concerns of all countries" and the need to prevent a "block confrontation" must have satisfied Russia sufficiently for it to approve China's mediation efforts in resolving the Ukrainian conflict. Russia called Beijing's proposals for a peaceful settlement "constructive." Of course, this means that, whatever these proposals are, Ukraine and the West can immediately reject them. We will have to wait and see how Xi's telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky will go, the possibility of which is currently being discussed.
Commentators have already written a lot about the absence of a mention of "boundless friendship" in this joint statement by Xi and Putin, which appeared in the widely publicized joint statement of China and Russia on February 4, 2022. However, to think so is a mistake. In fact, this time the parties once again reaffirmed their commitment to the Treaty on Good Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation, which was extended in June 2021, as well as the joint statement of February 4, 2022. It is curious that Russia and China define the nature of their bilateral relations as non-alignment, non-confrontation and non-targeting of third countries. It is quite difficult to reconcile this with Russia's actions in Ukraine, but it is implied that it was provoked to such behavior.
In their joint statement, the leaders also tried to rationalize the results of the vote in the UN General Assembly, where the overwhelming majority of members opposed Russia. They noted that if the vote had been held today, the results might have been different. In addition, a lot of attention was paid to the topic of democratization of international relations and the desire of China and Russia to achieve the formation of a "multipolar world".
The joint statement of the leaders, apparently, should convey the idea that China and Russia are inextricably linked: it says that "Russia is interested in a stable and prosperous China, and China is interested in a strong and successful Russia." This directly contradicts the desire of the United States and NATO to either weaken or defeat Russia on the Ukrainian front. The most convincing evidence of the development of relations was that part of the joint statement, which states that the parties are ready to "provide resolute mutual support in matters of protecting each other's fundamental interests." In the case of China, these "core interests" are well known to everyone and include Taiwan, Hong Kong and Xinjiang. It would be logical to assume that here we are talking about a service for a service and that China will also support the fundamental interests of Russia, the list of which includes Ukraine.
The joint statement also focuses on strengthening trade and economic cooperation, while special attention is paid to the energy sector, which has become a point of convergence of interests. In this sense, the China–Mongolia–Russia gas pipeline construction project takes pride of place – despite the fact that the West is seeking to boycott Russian energy carriers. Other areas of cooperation include the production of civil aviation aircraft, automotive, shipbuilding and metallurgy. For obvious reasons, Russia and China did not mention strong cooperation in the field of defense in their statement.
There are two possible explanations for this moment. Either this is an area in which China will not risk interfering, which will inevitably impose restrictions on this bilateral partnership. Or China will still dare to do what Russia expects from it, but without too much noise. Undoubtedly, the West will closely monitor the development of the situation.
The summit of Xi and Putin and their joint statement have two global strategic consequences: one for the West, and the other for India. From now on, it should be very clear to the West that China does not want Russia to lose in Ukraine. Given how much China and Xi personally have invested in Russia and Putin, it would be naive to believe that China will calmly stand aside and will not take Moscow's side in the Ukrainian conflict. And this may well affect the further trajectory of the development of this conflict. As for India, this significantly reduces the strategic maneuvering space available to it and complicates the security situation in a way that few people could have imagined before. In addition, Russia's reliability as a partner is at stake, especially if you think about the fact that Russia's dependence on China may well begin to grow exponentially. Ultimately, this may lead to the fact that India will have to get closer to the West, at least in order to protect its key interests in its confrontation with China.
Thus, at present, on the international strategic landscape, we are witnessing an example of what is called a pincer grip in the military sphere. On the one hand, China has decided to support Russia with all its authority and create a kind of alliance with it. On the other hand, the United States and Europe need all the support they can get from their allies and partners to stand up to Beijing and Moscow.
Mohan Kumar is a former Ambassador of India and now Dean and Professor of O. P. Jindal Global University.