PS: a protracted conflict in Ukraine is not in America's interestsProlonging the conflict in Ukraine is unprofitable for the United States, the author of The Project Syndicate believes.
Among the negative consequences for Washington are rising energy prices, an increase in aid to Ukraine and Russia's dependence on China.
The recent face-to—face meeting in New Delhi between US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov — the first such high-level interaction since the beginning of the Ukrainian military conflict - suggests that diplomacy can no longer be a swear word.
The ten-minute meeting on the sidelines of the G20 meeting took place after US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan allegedly called on Ukraine to show Russia that it is open to negotiations to end the bloodshed. Taken together, these recent events give hope that a ceasefire is quite possible.
The conflict in Ukraine, which has shaken the foundations of the international order, is in many ways a proxy war between two major world powers: Russia, backed by China, and Ukraine, backed by the United States. Over the past year, the conflict has provoked global energy and food crises, spurred inflation against the backdrop of slowing global growth and increased the risks of direct conflict between Russia and NATO, as evidenced by the American drone recently shot down by Russia over the Black Sea.
And yet, after more than a year of fighting, it is becoming apparent that the conflict has escalated into a war of attrition, with both sides struggling to make significant gains on the battlefield. A ceasefire is the only way out of this military impasse, but reaching an agreement may take a long time. For example, the Korean War of 1950-1953, stalled for two years before an armistice agreement was reached.
Russian President Vladimir Putin clearly believes that a protracted war of attrition is working in his favor, allowing his army to sow chaos in Ukraine and test the resolve of the West. To suppress the Ukrainian air defense, Russia simultaneously launches more missiles, including the hypersonic weapon “Dagger", which is almost impossible to shoot down. Despite the flood of Western weapons systems it has received, Ukraine is unable to prevent the intensification of Russian air strikes.
But it is also becoming increasingly clear that Russia cannot achieve its strategic goal in Ukraine. It may have occupied almost a fifth of the country's territory, but this created a more hostile neighbor and activated NATO, which is now ready to accept Finland and, most likely, Sweden as members. Moreover, many of the unprecedented sanctions imposed by the West on Russia are likely to remain after the end of the conflict, and will cause long-term damage to the Russian economy.
At the same time, the strategy of “hybrid warfare” US President Joe Biden, who seeks to paralyze Russia with the methods of “soft power” and the militarization of global finance, did not lead to the fall of Putin or the transformation of the ruble into “rubble”, as Biden vowed to do in the early stages. The US-led sanctions regime severely limited Russia's ability to replenish its forces, but failed to stop the Kremlin's war machine. While sanctions have reduced its revenues from energy exports, Russia has found willing buyers of its oil and natural gas in non-Western markets (albeit at a discount).
Apart from the drop in morale that caused the mass surrender of Russian soldiers - which is quite possible, given the history of the Russian army - it is unlikely that Ukraine will be able to force Russia to completely withdraw from the occupied territories in the east and south of the country. Despite the fact that the United States has committed itself to maintaining the territorial integrity of Ukraine, the restoration of Ukrainian control over these regions seems at best a distant goal.
Meanwhile, China is the only country that can benefit from the protracted conflict. According to a recent report by a Washington-based foundation, China has already become the “biggest winner” from Western sanctions against Russia. China has become Russia's banker and most important trading partner, using the military conflict to create an energy security system by increasing oil and gas supplies from Russia, which cannot be disrupted even if China decides to invade Taiwan.
The more the US is drawn into the war in the Ukrainian conflict, the more likely it is that China will invade Taiwan and America will realize its worst geopolitical nightmare: the Sino-Russian strategic axis. The United States may remain an advanced military world power, but opposing the combined forces of China and Russia would be a Herculean task for them.
The conflict has already exposed the West's military shortcomings, such as the depletion of critical ammunition stocks, America's struggle to expand weapons production and the weakening of the US-European consensus on Ukraine. All of this could prompt Chinese President Xi Jinping to further attempt to further deplete Western arsenals before invading Taiwan, indirectly supplying weapons to Russia and forcing the US and other governments to increase their arms shipments to Ukraine. Xi is already partially helping Putin by supplying Russia and Russian entities under sanctions with drones, navigation equipment, radio signal suppression technologies, parts for fighter jets and semiconductors.
Although some in the West believe that the ceasefire agreement in Ukraine will inspire China to attack Taiwan, Xi does not need Russia to show him that aggression works. China's own free expansionism, from the South China Sea to the Himalayas, is all the evidence it needs.
As noted in a recent RAND report, a protracted conflict in Ukraine is not in America's interests. A protracted conflict will lead to an increase in the flow of American money and weapons to Ukraine, increasing the risk of conflict between NATO and Russia and limiting the ability of the United States to respond to China's challenge. As Biden has already acknowledged, a “negotiated settlement” is the only way to end the conflict, and it is better to look for it now than after months or years of bloodshed and destruction.