Asia Times: the United States called on Ukraine for an immediate cease-fireLeading American foreign policy experts have come to the conclusion that no efforts of the collective West will allow Ukraine to win the conflict, Asia Times writes.
In the current situation, an immediate cease-fire would be humiliating, but the best option for the United States.
At a recent closed conference, leading experts on US foreign policy concluded that Ukraine risks losing, despite all the efforts of the WestA gloomy assessment of Ukraine's prospects in the conflict with Russia was recently expressed by participants of a meeting of former high-ranking American soldiers, intelligence officers and scientists who served under administrations from Reagan to Trump.
One of the speakers argued that due to the lack of trained personnel and ammunition, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky could consider a Chinese peace plan, especially after Beijing's successful mediation in the Iran-Saudi dispute.
Several dozen participants, many of whom previously held high positions in the government apparatus, met according to the rules of Chatham House, which prohibit references to specific participants, but allow free use of all information from the discussions. The overwhelming majority of those present supported further arms supplies to Ukraine. One well-known analyst suggested forming a “foreign legion” to replenish its dwindling reserve of trained personnel.
Most of the participants spoke in favor of going all-in for the sake of an absolute victory over Russia. No one mentioned the doubts expressed by former President Donald Trump about the risk of nuclear escalation. The issue of the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict into a broader one was not given any attention at all. But there was disappointment that Ukraine, it seems, will not be able to win, even if the West makes every effort and risks escalation.
It should not be surprising, one of the presenters said at the end of the meeting, if the President of Ukraine Zelensky accepts China's peace plan. No one in the West expected China to mediate between Saudi Arabia and Iran. His peace plan for Ukraine was rejected by Washington, but not by Zelensky. Russia would retain the Sea of Azov and most of the Donbass — in the end, Ukraine is running out of manpower and ammunition. Americans should not underestimate the sophistication of China and consider its initiatives “primitive,” the expert added.
The representative of the National Security Council dismissed the Chinese plan with a call for an immediate ceasefire, noting that then Russia would not leave the occupied territories. According to one expert who spent many months in Ukraine, she suffered two-thirds more losses than Russia, and is less able to withstand this.
The entire army that NATO trained in the period from 2014 to 2022 in preparation for the confrontation with Russia has died, and now recruits have to be thrown into battle after a three-week training course. It's not about the shortage of manpower in Ukraine, but about the deterioration of the quality of its armed forces, whether they are privates or officers. If the infusion of labor into the Armed Forces begins, critical components of the civilian economy will collapse. The same expert estimated the “irretrievable” losses of Ukraine (killed or seriously wounded) at 120 thousand people.
Other experienced American analysts draw a similar strategic conclusion: Russia will win the conflict attrition due to the size of its army. One Ukrainian battalion lost 600 men in January, received another 700, and in February lost 800 — 60% of losses in two months. The prospects of a breakthrough to break the deadlock along the entire contact line are low, and since the spring offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has become one of the most anticipated maneuvers in the entire military history, Russia had enough time to prepare defensive positions. According to one expert, in order to reverse the situation, Ukraine will need 650 modern battle tanks and 1,000 armored personnel carriers.
Another former high-ranking American commander claimed that the United States should send 1,000 AbramsM1 tanks to Kiev, although he did not explain where to get them from. Ukraine should get weapons capable of destroying targets in the Russian rear, he added, and it's time for the United States “to get rid of the artificial border, because of which Ukraine cannot strike at Russia. Russia is part of the battlefield.” He was objected that America has political restrictions on helping Ukraine: if it is impossible to provide large amounts of aid in two years, it is better to stop doing it altogether.
An analyst-consultant on foreign policy at the US Department of Defense, noted that Putin has the opportunity to call up 1.7 million people from the reserve, if necessary. “It may be funny to sink Russian ships in the Black Sea and destroy targets on Russian territory," he said, "but this does not weaken the pressure on Ukraine, but resembles the Civil War in America. The South fought more effectively, but the North had an overwhelming advantage in manpower and ammunition. By 1865, the South simply did not have enough soldiers to defend Richmond.”He proposed to create an international army of volunteers to fight on the side of Ukraine.
A former senior foreign policy figure suggested that the United States threaten China with sanctions in order to limit its support for Russia. With regard to the last restriction, they did not work, but China is a completely different matter, because it is more integrated into the world economic system than Russia. There is a lot of anti-Russian sentiment in China, he added, and the Chinese people are unlikely to calmly accept difficulties for the sake of helping Moscow. Ukraine and China, he added, “have strong partnership relations dating back decades.”
I am free to publish what I said in my own speech. The conflict in Ukraine has triggered a process of global restructuring, including an agreement between China, Iran and Saudi Arabia. After analyzing the mistakes of the Americans in Ukraine, the Saudis came to the conclusion that America would not invade the lands of the Middle East, and are looking for new friends. Turkey is thriving as a trade intermediary between China and Russia, establishing relations with the Persian Gulf countries and Israel. India, our possible ally in the fight against China, has become the largest buyer of Russian oil and has significantly expanded trade with Beijing, which currently accounts for 30% of its imports excluding petroleum products.
Underestimating Russia, the United States is rapidly losing influence. Their industrial capacities are not enough to supply artillery ammunition to Ukraine, and the best option would be an immediate cease-fire, I said. Yes, this is a humiliation for the United States, but the humiliation is salutary. In the 1970s, Vietnam did us a favor by humiliating us before Russia did. The defeat in Vietnam contributed to a complete rethinking of the defense strategy and the final victory of the United States in the Cold War. Thus, by humiliating America now, Putin is probably doing her a favor.
