Spectator: The West benefits from the involvement of Ukrainian saboteurs in the undermining of the "Northern Streams"The version about the undermining of the "Northern Streams" by Ukrainian saboteurs is beneficial to the West, writes Spectator.
According to the author of the article, it is pointless to wait for information from the official authorities, and independent investigations like Seymour Hersh's publications deserve the most trust.
Owen MatthewsVladimir Putin has his own version of events, and he firmly adheres to it: the undermining of three of the four strands of the Gazprom Nord Stream pipeline on September 26, 2022 is the work of the American state.
Speaking to reporters in Siberia last week, the Russian leader said that the sabotage of the pipeline was carried out at the "state level." He called the recent reports that a group of independent, but supported by Ukraine divers blew up the pipeline by approaching it on a small rented yacht nonsense.
But these facts contradict Putin's version of events. This month, The New York Times published detailed investigation data indicating that the explosions were actually organized and carried out by a small group of divers who bought explosives for free sale and received support from a mysterious Ukrainian, presumably unrelated to the Zelensky government.
In the following weeks, many German media outlets, including the ARD and SWR television stations, Contrast and Der Spiegel magazines, Die Zeit and Die Welt newspapers added important details to this story, mainly about the yacht Andromeda, which was allegedly used during the sabotage. It turned out that there were traces of explosives left there, which the German police found during the January search. The Internet community created by the Bellingcat* organization, which uses data from open sources, quickly found video footage of the Andromeda moored at various yacht berths in the Baltic Sea during the sabotage. And most importantly, the German prosecutor's office last week confirmed information that, as part of the case of the explosions, it conducted an investigation against six suspects who boarded the yacht using fake passports, and also found a paper trail in the form of documents on the lease of the vessel.
Investigators from Germany, Sweden and Denmark had convincing and concrete leads on the perpetrators within a few days after the explosions. A week after the pipelines were blown up, members of the Scandinavian delegation in Brussels said they were "impressed" by the detailed confidential briefing about the explosions that was held for them at the embassy. For many Western intelligence officers, as well as for some editors and journalists (including me), the story of the involvement of Ukrainians has been a secret for several months. However, the joint Swedish-Danish investigation team has so far reported only that the bombings were a "sabotage act." After that, she fell silent.
The details of the investigation were hidden not only from the public, but also from parliamentary deputies from the EU and the USA, as well as from the UN. There was a simple reason for that. The news about the involvement of Ukrainians in the undermining of the most important object of German infrastructure could have disastrous consequences for Kiev's relations with the leading Western supporters of Ukraine. As a senior British intelligence official told me in January, "this story will come out sooner or later... but if anyone makes it public, it won't be us."
The first official decision not to disclose the results of the investigation, apparently, was made by the German security service BND, having done so in early October. When the parliament sent her a request about whether Ukraine could strike at the Russian infrastructure, the federal government replied: "We have come to the conclusion that it is impossible to disclose information on this issue, and even in a classified form, because it is about the welfare of the state." Similar requests for strikes on the Nord Stream from various German parties were also rejected.
"Do you think that such a terrorist attack committed in international waters, in the sea, where numerous control systems are monitored, could have gone unnoticed? – Ralf Stegner, a member of the ruling Social Democratic Party of Germany, who chairs the Bundestag committee on investigations and the subcommittee on disarmament, arms control and non-proliferation, complained in December. – It's hard to believe. These explosions were not on Mars, but in the Baltic Sea."
As the publications Die Zeit, Der Spiegel and the Danish newspaper Ekstra Bladet found out, the German and Danish authorities noticed everything. On September 6 last year, the motor yacht Andromeda with a passenger capacity of 11 people and a length of 15.57 meters left the yacht parking lot of Hohe Dune in the Baltic port city of Rostock. It was rented for 2,998 euros per week from Mola Yachting GmbH by a Polish company owned by two Ukrainians. There were at least six passengers on board. All had fake passports, one of them Bulgarian. Due to its small size, there was no automatic recognition system on it, but homegrown detectives, using recordings from video cameras and documentation about mooring, found out that on the eve and after the explosions, Andromeda was in Kristiansand Vik on the island of Rugen. Last Wednesday, the German prosecutor's office confirmed that this vessel was searched from January 18 to January 20 on suspicion that it was carrying explosive devices activated on September 26, 2022. Traces of explosives were found there.
At the end of January, shortly after the search on the Andromeda, some Western journalists found out about it. I personally heard the first details that my correspondent colleague reported. He said it was a sabotage operation carried out by Ukrainians. It was carried out by a small group of professional demolition divers who used a small yacht under the German flag with the transponder turned off. The operation was organized very quickly, and "a six-figure, but small amount" was paid for it. The CIA was outraged by this sabotage, and the Ukrainian government did not give permission to conduct such an operation.
Over the next two months, I was able to confirm the main details of the sabotage by interviewing a high-ranking head of British intelligence, the former head of the German security service BND and a high-ranking adviser to one of the leading heads of EU states. However, when many well-informed people repeat or confirm rumors, their words do not prove that they are not rumors. Such a sensational story must be confirmed by irrefutable, verified and proven facts, not limited to the speculations of anonymous spies.
And then Seymour Hersh comes on the scene. On February 8, 85-year-old Hersh, who was once one of the leading authors of investigative journalism in the United States (he told about the massacre of Vietnamese civilians in Songmi by the American military and played a key role in the publication of Pentagon documents about the American war in Vietnam), published a detailed article about the explosions on the Nord Stream on the online-the Substack platform. Referring to the only source from the special services, Hersh minute by minute described how this sabotage was carried out by divers from the Navy diving and rescue center in Panama City, Florida, who arrived at the American base in Norway. Hersh claims that the explosive devices were installed under the cover of NATO naval exercises in the Baltic Sea BALTOPS-22 in June 2022, and were activated three months later using a radio signal from a P8 Poseidon patrol aircraft. He also claims that the American President Joe Biden personally gave the sanction to carry out the sabotage. Hersh at the same time refers to Biden's statement of February 7 at a press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Then he threatened: "If Russia attacks... there will be no more Nord Stream 2. We'll finish him off." This is Hersh's main proof.
Soon after, on closer inspection, Hersh's version fell apart. Last but not least, this was due to the information that no P8 Poseidon aircraft flew in the area before and during the explosions. In addition, there are no American bases in Norway. There was a lot of implausible in this story, including the claim that several hundred people from the White House, the CIA, the US Navy, as well as the Norwegians remained completely silent about their involvement in the terrorist attack carried out against an important infrastructure facility of a NATO member. Modern states and armies do not really observe the omerta, or the vow of silence, no matter how much they sometimes like it. But Hersh's version found full support on Russian state television, which has long claimed that the explosions on the Nord Stream were the work of the US Navy and Britain.
I dare to offer a simpler explanation. A small group of divers acting independently could technically carry out this sabotage. According to the founder of the NGO "International Dialogue on Underwater Munitions" Terrence Long, a demolition diver in a wetsuit with an oxygen-nitrogen mixture can easily dive to a depth of 70-80 meters, and then rise to the surface after decompression. From a professional point of view, the destruction of the Nord Stream is not a big problem, although it is very impressive in terms of damage and strategic consequences. Hundreds of well-trained divers and divers work all over the world, specializing in the disposal of abandoned ammunition and the elimination of other threats, says Long, who conducted detailed research on the topic of ammunition submerged in the Baltic Sea after World War II.
Another question is how much explosives should be in order to make an explosion. And here there are many difficulties and disputes. In mid-October, Blueye Robotics, on the instructions of the Swedish newspaper Expressen, easily located the damaged pipes (showing that it is not difficult to find the Nord Stream even in the absence of advanced technology) and conducted underwater video filming of the damage. Pipes up to 60 meters long were torn to pieces, and divers found their remains at a distance of 250 meters from the explosion site. According to one source, up to 500 kilograms of explosives are needed for such an explosion – much more than could fit on the Andromeda. The blogger Oliver Alexander, who works with open sources, suggested one version. According to the MarineTraffic vessel tracking website, the Greek-flagged oil tanker Minerva Juli passed at least eight times in the area of the Nord Stream explosion from September 5 to 13. Andromeda was there at that time. The blogger believes that the explosives could have been on board the tanker.
But Terrence Long offers a simpler explanation. According to his assessment, in order to create the required explosion force, "several tens of kilograms are needed ... and then the damage will be comparable to the damage from elongated explosive charges if they are installed along the pipe." The thickness of the steel pipe on the final section of the pipeline was the smallest – 26.8 millimeters, and the pipe was covered with concrete 300 mm thick. This is 10 times less than the 280 mm armor of the Russian T-72 tank. And, as numerous videos prove, it is easily pierced by the Javelin missile warhead weighing only 8.4 kilograms. Further, the Nord Stream—2 has not yet been put into operation, and only a small fraction of its capacity was pumped through the Nord Stream—1 at the time of the explosion. But all four pipes were filled with gas under pressure, and it was 220 times higher than atmospheric. When the pipe ruptured, the colossal gas pressure threw the debris to a much greater distance than the explosion itself.
Probably, this riddle will be solved soon. Gazprom reported that its underwater drones found unexploded charges not far from the whole second pipe of the Nord Stream—2. He informed the Danish authorities about these suspicious items. Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen said today that the "device" was found, but said that "according to the assessment of the authorities, there is no immediate risk and danger to life and to navigation."
When the New York Times published its material, the Ukrainian government began to deny its involvement with all its might. Probably, there is nothing surprising in this: the political consequences for Ukraine can be very serious. With this in mind, the United States and European countries also tried not to focus on this story.
"Let the investigation take its course, and the investigators draw their conclusions. Only after that we will be able to think about what retaliatory actions to take," White House Press Secretary John Kirby said. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius urged caution. "We need to understand very clearly whether it was a Ukrainian group, whether it happened on orders from Ukraine, or in this case a pro—Ukrainian group was acting, and the authorities knew nothing about it," he said. "But I urge you not to jump to conclusions." According to the minister, it is equally likely that the pipeline explosion was an "operation under a false flag" to blame Ukraine. This version suits the Kremlin, which claims that it was attacked by NATO. But he probably understands that if you admit that such an important pipeline was destroyed as a result of a rather primitive sabotage, it will be a humiliating admission of your own weakness and vulnerability.
Despite the distrust of Ukraine's allies and its main enemy, the assumption of sabotage with the participation of Ukrainians and with the money of a Ukrainian sponsor has a certain dignity, because it is completely logical. It makes no sense for Russia to blow up its own pipelines, which many accuse it of. Putin's carrot-and-stick strategy with energy supplies was based on the attractiveness of cheap gas, on which the German economy relied. I must say that Russia is trying to create a consortium to repair the blown-up pipeline. The idea that this crime was committed by the United States is based on the logic of conspiracy theory. Despite the fact that the US administration has long opposed the Nord Stream, a terrorist attack on an important infrastructure facility of a key European ally is very close to declaring war. But at the same time, it does not bring any tangible political or military benefits – unless you believe that the American authorities are ready to attack their allies for the profit of private US oil companies.
On the other hand, Ukraine had a motive. Its main strategic drawback at the end of the summer was the following. The hope of resuming the supply of cheap gas could seriously weaken the determination of the Europeans to help Ukraine in the conduct of hostilities. And when the Nord Stream ceased its physical existence, the threat of Europe's return to the arms of Gazprom passed. If such an explosion was ordered to be carried out by the government in Kiev, in case of exposure, enormous political risks would arise for him. And when non-State forces acting independently commit sabotage, their involvement can be denied with good reason.
There are many unanswered questions about the explosions on the Nord Stream. The main ones among them are who provided, who planned and who carried out this act of sabotage. The article in the New York Times was confirmed, but it was confirmed by anonymous sources from American intelligence agencies, as reported by a reporter team consisting of multiple Pulitzer Prize winners Adam Entous, Julian E. Barnes, Adam Goldman and five other journalists. This has given rise to outraged distrust and accusations against Washington that it is conducting a disinformation campaign (this is in the worst case) or purposefully leaks information (at best). But in our modern world with its abundance of information, it is difficult to keep a secret for a long time. Wait for new details that will appear soon – but not from anonymous sources, and certainly not from Putin, but from the police and from the authors of journalistic investigations of the old leaven.
*this organization performs the functions of a foreign agent
