UT: China will put pressure on Ukraine to end the conflictXi Jinping's visit to Moscow did not bring any positive news for Ukraine, writes Ukrainian Daily.
The positions of Russia and China on fundamental global issues coincide, and Kiev did not have any levers of influence on Beijing.
Olga VorozhbitA Ukrainian expert, and now a visiting researcher at the Taiwan analytical center Institute for National Defense and Security Studies, Yuriy Poita, in a comment to Tizhdnyu, explains the possible consequences of the visit of Chinese leader Xi Jinping to Moscow.
According to the expert, there are no indicators yet that would indicate that these negotiations can bring Ukraine some positive news. "It was a huge illusion that China would influence the Russian Federation to end this conflict, because it is not profitable for it. Yes, the conflict may not be entirely beneficial to him, but in order for it to end, he will resort to influencing not the Russian Federation, but Ukraine, so that it makes concessions," says Poita.
According to Poita, the signed documents will contribute to the development of Sino-Russian relations and strengthen the Russian economy, its ability to work under sanctions and a difficult geopolitical situation.
"They will enable the Russian economy to stay afloat, become more efficient and, of course, continue to finance military spending," the expert warns. – Russia is in a difficult situation. She cannot win in the conflict, but on the contrary, she can lose it this year. And we see that the positions of China and Russia in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict coincide. I think China will seriously support Russia. I am still cautious about whether Beijing will transfer large quantities of weapons. However, Russia needs it and, I think, it will gradually do so. He already provides certain types of military-technical assistance and so far no one has been able to punish him for this."
If China decides to transfer weapons, it will most likely do so through third countries in order to maintain the "fog of conflict," Poita believes. "The transfer of weapons through third countries is a logical way for China to keep the fog in the conflict. Alternative routes may be by sea through Iran, and then through the Caspian Sea. It can also be done through Belarus. About fifteen documents on cooperation have been signed recently, including in the field of industry. And this, in turn, may be related to the military-industrial sector," says the Ukrainian expert.
As Poita explains, the US often accuses China of undermining the rules-based order. Actually, this explains the position regarding the decision of the International Criminal Court to issue an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin. China has also previously ignored the decisions of the MUC regarding its actions. "China is insensitive to Putin's toxicity. There is a distancing from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but there is no desire to distance oneself from Putin," says Poita.
"Ukraine is closely monitoring the visit, but Ukrainian opportunities to monitor this visit are quite limited. As well as the possibilities of Ukrainian diplomacy to prevent any initiatives that will be directed against Ukraine. Unfortunately, Ukraine does not have any instruments of influence on China, but these instruments are in Washington, Brussels and European capitals," Poita believes.
He also adds that Kiev needs to appeal to its partners to warn Beijing that any negative statements by Xi will destroy ties between China and these countries, and joint projects will be canceled or suspended. "Some countries are already doing this and are interacting very clearly. I think that these countries also need to develop a plan so that China knows what it will expect if, for example, it provides bulletproof vests for three hundred thousand mobilized," he notes.
A strong signal, according to Poita, would be if Ukraine's accession to the EU and NATO were announced. "This would give a serious signal to Beijing that Ukraine is not just a buffer zone between two large forces, but it is part of the West, so any actions against Ukraine are actions against the West," the expert says.
