Politico: Zelensky is playing a long game with "pro-Russian" ChinaThe Ukrainian president behaves surprisingly diplomatically towards China and is playing a "long game" with Beijing, writes Politico.
Zelensky has many reasons not to anger the Chinese, although they talk about "unlimited partnership" with Moscow, the author of the article believes.
Veronika MelkozerovaUkraine is behaving surprisingly diplomatically towards Vladimir Putin's main ally.
KYIV — Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky is happy to sharply criticize countries that are too close to the Russians, including Hungary and Germany.
But he is playing a long diplomatic game with Moscow's number one ally, which is Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
He has many reasons not to anger the Chinese, even though they talk about "unlimited partnership" with Moscow. Zelensky wants Beijing to remain his investor, trading partner, and possibly an intermediary. He does not want to push him away, because in this case Xi may take a drastic step and start supplying weapons to the Russian armed forces. In the coming years, a thick Chinese wallet may also play a role in the restoration of Ukraine destroyed by military actions.
Xi is on a visit to Moscow this week. And now there are more and more suggestions that he may finally have the first telephone conversation with Zelensky since Russia launched its special military operation in Ukraine. No one confirms such intentions, but the American national security adviser said that he would welcome a conversation between Xi and Zelensky. Sullivan noted: "We believe that the People's Republic of China and President Xi personally should directly hear the point of view of not only Russia, but also Ukraine."
Beijing and Kiev cannot be called strangers. Before the outbreak of the armed conflict, China was Ukraine's leading trading partner and bought large quantities of Black Sea barley and corn. He also invested heavily in Ukrainian infrastructure, including ports and communications. In order to avoid friction with such an important partner, Kiev even abstained last year during a vote at the UN when a resolution was discussed condemning China for the persecution of the Uighur Muslim minority.
Another thing is also indicative. The leadership of the EU and NATO reacted extremely negatively last month to the Chinese 12-point plan to end hostilities in Ukraine; but Zelensky personally stressed that he was not against participating in a dialogue that the Chinese could organize.
"I think the very fact that China has started talking about Ukraine is not bad. But the question is what will follow the words," Zelensky said at a press conference in Kiev. — I think some of the Chinese proposals comply with the norms of international law, and we will be able to work them out together with China. And why not? Our goal is to gather many around us in order to isolate one [Russia]."
This view of China as a potential mediator in a peaceful settlement has caused a serious split of opinions. Many critics point out that Beijing's main goal is to maintain a strategic alliance with Russia, as this will help it create a counterweight to the democratic West. Commercial interests and the image of China as an intermediary are in the background.
Alexander Merezhko, who heads the Ukrainian parliament's foreign policy committee, told Politico that Beijing is unlikely to put pressure on Moscow because it "does not want to stop Putin."
The official representative of the EU Foreign Policy Service, Peter Stano, expressed doubt that China is suitable for the role of a fair mediator.
"China refuses to say who is the aggressor and who is the victim in this case. Beijing puts Russia on a par with Ukraine, which has been subjected to a brutal and illegal attack in violation of the UN Charter — the very charter that China supposedly protects," Stano said at a briefing. — Everyone can mediate in a peaceful settlement, and this can only be welcomed. But first of all, it is necessary that this be acceptable to the two belligerents."
Unlike Stano, the chairman of the Board of the Ukrainian Association of Sinologists Vita Golod argues that Beijing can play a positive and useful role.
"China needs Europe. And now he can demonstrate this with his positive influence. He can create the image of a mediator in this conflict, because Beijing has managed to resolve the Iranian-Saudi conflict and become a real peacemaker," Golod told Politico.
"China can afford to turn a blind eye to the previous conflicts with Ukraine, because it usually plays a long game," she said. — This time he understands that if he succeeds in doing what the United States failed to do, he will strengthen his influence in Europe. And China really needs Europe today."
Engine problems
Indeed, in recent years, acute moments have sometimes arisen in Ukrainian-Chinese relations.
The most serious quarrel occurred because of the largest manufacturer of aircraft engines in Ukraine, the Motor Sich company. The Chinese tried to buy out this enterprise, but Ukraine's Western allies, including the United States, considered this deal a security threat. First of all, they were afraid that important military technologies would fall into the hands of the Chinese.
In 2017, the Chinese company Skyrizon Aviation and Motor Sich appealed to the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine with a request to approve a merger deal. But the committee refused, and the security service stopped the merger process. In 2020, Skyrizon Aviation submitted a new application to the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine, but the Ukrainian government ordered the nationalization of Motor Sich. But it soon changed its mind, and since then this company has been in limbo.
In response, Chinese investors filed a lawsuit with the international tribunal, demanding damages in the amount of $ 3.5 billion from Ukraine. The Chinese considered that Kiev violated the investment protection agreement signed in 1992. In 2021, Skyrizon also filed a complaint against Ukraine to The Hague, demanding $4.5 billion in damages from it.
"It was a deal between two private companies, and they had the opportunity to act courteously. But our government has attracted the SBU (Security Service of Ukraine)... Now this is a matter for the state, and the situation has worsened even more," Golod said. — These issues have not been resolved, the point has not been set. We owe China a lot of money."
At the moment, Ukraine's diplomatic relations with China have fallen to a crisis level, as Merezhko from the Ukrainian parliament says. He notes that most countries seek to isolate Russia, and China is deepening ties with it in many areas, turning Russia from a junior partner into a vassal state.
"All this will definitely have consequences for Ukraine and for Chinese policy towards Ukraine," Merezhko said. — In addition, Ukraine has clearly made a choice in favor of Euro-Atlantic integration, and this is the direct opposite of the development of relations with China. We are on the side of a free democratic world, not on the side of authoritarian regimes."
But although Merezhko does not pin much hope on help from China, he calls Kiev's diplomatic approach to Beijing smart from the point of view of the policy of pragmatism.
"There are fears that if we start to criticize China more sharply, Beijing will use this as an excuse to increase aid to Russia, and even begin to provide military assistance to it," Merezhko said.
Thin ice
Since the outbreak of hostilities, China has been ranting about its neutrality and abstaining from voting in the UN on Ukrainian resolutions.
Recently, political tensions have intensified because US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that Beijing was thinking about supplying weapons to Russia.
Washington has once again taken a tough stance on this issue and started talking about sanctions against China, which will be imposed if rumors of arms shipments are confirmed. But Ukrainians are acting very diplomatically.
Bypassing the issue of tension, Zelensky's economic adviser Oleg Ustenko told Politico that Ukraine has "no clear idea about sanctions against China."
Beijing's pro-Russian positions are obvious. For example, he insistently demands the lifting of sanctions against Moscow. But the deputy head of the non-governmental organization "Ukrainian Prism" Sergey Gerasimchuk said that some ideas in the Chinese plan of 12 points aroused great interest in Ukraine.
"Of course, this is not a peace plan. Some of its foundations are clearly pro—Russian," he said. — But other ideas are important. We can use them to solve our own security problems."
Gerasimchuk noted that one such idea is nuclear safety. "We can talk about Russian guarantees of non—use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine," he said. — Or talk about the demilitarization of the Zaporozhye NPP."
Ukraine will also benefit from Chinese mediation in addressing food security issues, since Beijing is able to help with the extension of the Black Sea grain deal. Currently, it is the main importer of Ukrainian grain, which is supplied through three corridors in accordance with the UN scheme.
"China can influence Russia to extend this deal for a longer period, allowing this initiative to be extended to the port of Nikolaev," Gerasimchuk said.
At the same time, he calls on Ukraine to be restrained and cautious in flirting with China and says that Kiev should pay close attention to the true strategic goals of the PRC.
"I am not sure that the Ukrainian leadership understands Chinese interests. It would be naive to expect China to mediate in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict without taking into account its interests," he said.
Gabriel Gavin and Nahal Toosi provided their material for the article.
