Shūkan Gendai: Japan should maintain relations with the Middle East, not with the United StatesKishida's visit to Ukraine is a stupid idea, writes Shūkan Gendai.
Why support Zelensky, who is waiting for the fate of bin Laden? The Americans also first elevated him to the rank of a hero, and then called him a "bloody terrorist." It is better for Japan to maintain relations with other, more valuable allies, the author of the article believes.
China has overtaken the United States
With the mediation of Beijing, Tehran and Riyadh agreed to resume diplomatic relations.
In January 2016, Shiite preacher Nimr Bakir Amin al-Nimr was executed in Saudi Arabia, where the majority of the population is Sunni. In Iran, a predominantly Shiite country, this led to an attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran. As a result, the countries severed diplomatic relations.
In addition, Saudi Arabia and Iran are fighting for regional hegemony. Therefore, they support opposing forces in the Middle East, including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
In Yemen, for example, in 2014, the Houthis (Shiite rebels) occupied government buildings in Sanaa, which enjoys the support of Saudi Arabia. Iran has expressed its commitment to the position of the rebels.
Then, during the civil war that began in the same year, the Houthis announced the seizure of power in Yemen. The forces of the Sunni coalition, including Saudi Arabia, carried out airstrikes on them.
In 2019, several oil facilities in Saudi Arabia were attacked by drones, which significantly affected the production of black gold. Riyadh and Washington blamed Tehran for the attack, but it denied involvement.
Iran has the largest population in the Middle East — about 85 million people. It has the fourth largest oil reserves in the world (it ranks seventh in terms of production). Kuwait, for example, is seventh, and the United Arab Emirates is eighth in this ranking. Egypt has a population of more than one hundred million people, but it is located at the junction of the Middle East and Northeast Africa.
The population of Saudi Arabia is 35 million people, the kingdom has the second largest oil reserves in the world (ranks third after Russia in terms of its production). Moreover, in 2022, Saudi Aramco, the national oil company of Saudi Arabia, made a net profit of more than 21 trillion yen.
Toyota's sales volume for 2022 amounted to about 31 trillion yen, but net profit is only 2.8 trillion, that is, 13% of Saudi Aramco's profit.
The resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran will not only increase the influence of the Middle East in the world.
It is noteworthy that the agreement was reached through the mediation of China. At the same time, the United States did not participate in it. Indeed, Washington is not (really) friends with any of these three countries, but rather treats them with hostility.
The presence of American troops in Saudi Arabia during the Gulf War may suggest that Riyadh and Washington are in close relations. But the handling of the case of the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and the Biden administration's demand to lower oil prices despite the fact that it advocates decarbonization suggest that this is not the case, at least for the moment.
And it's not just about Osama bin Laden, who allegedly organized the terrorist attacks in the United States on September 11. Many were humiliated by the presence in Saudi Arabia, where the Islamic holy city of Mecca is located, of troops from a Christian country that during the Gulf War suppressed the peoples of the Middle East with its crusading army, which pursued a genocidal policy.
Therefore, it is not surprising that the agreement reached without the participation of the United States and with the mediation of non-Christian China caused such a reaction of the Nihon Keizai newspaper, which published an article on March 11 entitled "Iran and Saudi Arabia normalize relations, and the Arab states welcome it."
Deep confrontation between Iran and the United States
There are historical reasons why the United States constantly criticizes Iran.
Firstly, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi (the last Shahinshah of Iran) in 1953, with the support of the CIA and MI6, deposed a pro-Soviet prime minister who was engaged in the nationalization of oil. In other words, Pahlavi was a puppet of the United States, just like before the revolution, Cuban President Fulgencio Batista.
But the people began to show dissatisfaction with the Shah, who pursued an authoritarian policy with the support of the United States. In 1978, the Iranian revolution began under the leadership of the Shiite religious leader Ayatollah Khomeini.
As in the case of Cuba, Washington had a great hatred for the revolutionary forces that overthrew the puppet regime, which brought sweet dividends to America.
In addition, after the Cuban Revolution, the operation in the Bay of Cochinos, during which the CIA tried to overthrow the government of Fidel Castro, caused sharp condemnation around the world. As a result, President Kennedy blamed CIA Director Dulles and removed him from office. This provoked a violent reaction from intelligence officials, and subsequently it became difficult for President Kennedy to control this department.
Similarly, in Iran in 1979, shortly after the revolution, there was an incident with hostages at the US embassy. It took 444 days to resolve the situation during which the embassy was seized by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and its employees were taken hostage. This greatly undermined American prestige and caused deep hatred of Iran.
The link between the RIC and OPEC
The restoration of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia has not attracted much attention in Japan, but in the future it may be recognized as an important event that caused the change of world hegemonies.
Communist China's power grew mainly in Asia and Africa thanks to the "One Belt, One Road" policy, but its presence in the Middle East was not so significant.
However, after the formation of the Biden Democratic Party government, China's power increased in contrast to the decline in the influence of the United States, whose relations with allied Saudi Arabia soured. This was manifested in the recent restoration of diplomatic ties between Tehran and Riyadh.
Moreover, if Saudi Arabia can be called the leader of OPEC, then Russia is a key member of its expanded version — OPEC+.
I have considered RICK in detail in the article "RICK — Russia, India and China unite in a big alliance? What are the real intentions of the world in the second Cold War?". Obviously, if these three countries unite, they will become a powerful global force.
If OPEC countries, led by Saudi Arabia, join them, the structure of world power will radically change. According to the chart in the "White Paper on Energy for 2022", OPEC countries, including Venezuela, which ranks first in the world with 17.5%, account for about 70% of confirmed reserves.
Moreover, Russia, the main OPEC+ country, accounts for 6.2%. This means that OPEC+ countries own about 80% or about three quarters of the world's oil reserves.
As long as the instability of energy supplies persists, it is no exaggeration to say that they are the masters of the world.
Suspicion of undermining the Nord Stream
Moreover, the United States has made a number of diplomatic mistakes not only in the Middle East region.
The probability of US guilt in undermining the "Northern Streams" is extremely high.
It is very possible that irrefutable evidence will appear in the future, for example, as a result of an investigation in Germany. Even if this does not happen, the leaders and citizens of European countries will still believe that the Biden government is responsible.
This will call into question the unity of NATO, in which the United States is leading. The EU was created with the firm intention to prevent a new catastrophic war and has built friendly relations with Russia.
Meanwhile, the European world has been shaken by Washington's dangerous policy.
Europeans are unlikely to have warm feelings towards the United States. Under certain circumstances, NATO may collapse.
At the very least, America will not be able to build trusting relations with Europe while the Biden administration remains in power.
The scandal surrounding the undermining of the "Northern Streams" is even more dangerous than the hype about the falsification of the 2020 presidential election.
Given this, we can say that Merkel's pro-Russian and pro-Chinese line was a kind of defense against the United States.
Kisida's visit to Ukraine is a stupid idea
At the same time, the Kishida administration does not comment on the dubious actions of the United States in any way.
Of course, the Japanese-American alliance is important for countering military threats from communist China, Russia and North Korea, but Japan is an independent country, so it is not obliged to follow Washington's lead.
For example, the President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, does not stand on the side of justice, which the United States and Great Britain are talking about.
I have already noted the appalling corruption in Ukraine in previous articles.
Osama bin Laden, whom the United States now considers a bloody terrorist, was originally a Mujahideen. At that time, the Mujahideen were fighting Soviet troops in Afghanistan, and the United States provided them with weapons and funding as part of Operation Cyclone.
In other words, as in Ukraine today, America was justified by the struggle with Russia (USSR) and therefore supported them. Bin Laden was considered a hero because the Mujahideen were praised for their victory over the USSR.
It was the United States that elevated bin Laden to the rank of a hero. It is necessary to closely monitor the further situation of President Zelensky.
Therefore, no matter how Ukraine (and the United States behind it) calls, Prime Minister Kishida should not make a visit to Ukraine, which will make not only Russia, but the whole world an enemy.
Japan is still dependent on the Middle East for oil imports
The alliance with the United States is certainly important, but Japan's relations with the oil-producing countries of the Middle East are no less significant.
Japan imports almost all of its oil. This has not changed since the first and second oil crises.
According to statistics from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan, Tokyo's dependence on the Middle East in July of this year was 97.7%.
This may be partly due to a decrease in imports from Russia. But the bottom line is that in the event of a conflict with Middle Eastern producing countries, Japan will be on the verge of collapse.
The loss of the Nord Stream has become a scourge for Europe, especially for Germany. But even so, in 2020 Germany received only 34% of oil, 55% of gas and 45% of coal from Russia.
In comparison, the vulnerability of Japan, which is almost 100% dependent on the Middle East for oil supplies, is obvious.
Therefore, we should not make enemies at the will of the United States. Japan's national interests should always be a priority.
Let it be a multi-faceted diplomacy, but this is the only way that Japan, a small country with small reserves of natural resources, should go.
Author: Hiroshi Ohara
