Colonel Zhou Bo: the Ukrainian conflict is connected with the existence of RussiaChina is ready to act as a peacemaker, but only Russia and Ukraine can resolve the conflict, retired PLA Colonel Zhou Bo said in an interview with Time.
The parties must agree on a ceasefire. At the same time, Russia needs a victory, the military noted.
China is present everywhere in global politics today. "China is omnipresent," retired PLA senior Colonel Zhou Bo told me during a recent conversation. On March 10, with the mediation of Beijing, Iran and Saudi Arabia signed an agreement on normalization of relations, which the United States tried to push into the background. It happened after seven years of intense rivalry. On February 24, China put forward a 12-point proposal on establishing peace in Ukraine. Yesterday, President Xi Jinping arrived in Moscow, where he discussed the situation in Ukraine with Vladimir Putin. Soon, perhaps this week, Xi may have a telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky.
During the interview, Senior Colonel Zhou Bo spoke with disarming frankness about what this "turning point" means for China and the whole world. "China is entering the ocean," he stressed, using a metaphor that I suspect will become widespread. I was particularly interested in his statements about how the Russian military operation harmed important interests of China. <...> It is clear that according to Beijing, the conflict in Ukraine will continue, that the West has no plan for its settlement and that China is counting on strengthening its mediation role. For Beijing, the conflict in Ukraine has become an activator of new security mechanisms in Europe, which must be fully operational in order for peace to return.
Senior Colonel Zhou Bo served in various positions in the Air Force Regional Command in Guangzhou. Since 1993, he served as a staff officer, Deputy Director General of the West Asian and African Bureau, and then Deputy Director General of the General Planning Bureau in the Department of Foreign Affairs of the Ministry of National Defense of the People's Republic of China. His last position in the military department is Director of the Center for Security Cooperation of the Directorate of International Military Cooperation. In this capacity, he was responsible for multilateral cooperation. At the end of 2019, he completed his service in the PLA and retired. Zhou Bo now works as a senior researcher at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University in Beijing. As a delegate from the PLA, he speaks at the Shangri-La Dialogue Security Summit and at the Munich Security Conference.
– Do you think that Russia made a strategic mistake by launching a military operation in Ukraine? Is she weaker now than before the operation?– I don't think Russia regrets this operation.
<...> The conflict itself is not so simple, because for Putin it is connected with the existence of Russia itself.
– Let me ask you a question about China's position. It is difficult for me to say that China is neutral. Chinese leaders are critical of Ukraine's right to self-defense, the role of Americans. But I haven't heard a single critical word about the operation itself…– I think China is neutral, and now there is an even more constructive neutrality thanks to the 12-point peace plan we have proposed.
China has been clearly saying from day one that sovereignty must be respected. And this is a soft hint that this military operation is a violation of sovereignty. Such suggestions cannot be misinterpreted. Because of China's relations with Russia, there is a difference in how Beijing hints and criticizes. But China has a clear position on this issue, and it should not be misinterpreted. Success in mediating between Iran and Saudi Arabia will give China an incentive to prepare new proposals, but the problem is always finding roadmaps. When reforms were beginning and China was opening up to the outside world, Deng Xiaoping said: "China is trying to ford the river and feels the stones on the rapids." But now the Celestial Empire is entering the ocean.
– What do you mean by the word "ocean" in this context?– You can't feel the bottom of the sea.
These are uncharted waters, but there is no turning back. We are talking about Global China. When Boris Johnson spoke about Global Britain, it was probably more rhetoric. But Global China is definitely quite real. China is omnipresent. His influence is felt everywhere. The PLA's actions abroad are chosen very carefully and are humanitarian in nature, but China is strengthening, and people expect more from it. We're talking about peace. This is the ocean we are entering.
– Let me return to the issue of China's neutrality. Why does he refuse to call the fighting a war? Is the superpower afraid to call a spade a spade?– To a certain extent, China sympathizes with Russia because of the way the fighting is going, and this is due to NATO expansion, because NATO has from time to time made promises about non-expansion.
When they talk about murder, murder is only a result, but it has reasons. China understands why Russia is unhappy. When Beijing stresses the need to respect sovereignty, it tries to look at it comprehensively. Countries such as the States of South Africa, Brazil and India have similar positions with China on this issue.
– Why is President Xi not talking to President Zelensky? Last week I asked the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Kuleba, and he was at a loss. A neutral country should talk to both sides.– Because the situation is very complicated.
Russia is our largest neighbor, and Ukraine is an important trading partner. And it is difficult for China to make a choice. In addition, the comprehensive support of Ukraine by the West further complicates the situation. There is no doubt that China wants a ceasefire because its interests in Europe have suffered. Because of China's neutrality, its relations with Western capitals have deteriorated. This is ridiculous, because he has nothing to do with this armed conflict. No one informs Beijing, it does not participate in this in any way. But people now just want the Celestial Empire to get involved in the conflict and choose someone's side in it.
– Let's return to the role of China. What can we expect from President Xi's visit to Moscow and from a possible telephone conversation with President Zelensky?– Since the late 1990s, Chinese and Russian leaders have regularly exchanged visits.
Last year it was Russia's turn, this year it was China's. I am sure the Chinese peace plan will be discussed at this meeting. This is a turning point. There is no doubt about it. But a peace offer from a third party can only take effect when both sides feel that they can no longer fight. It is best to connect to the process at this point. Currently, neither side is interested in the cessation of hostilities. And Washington is not interested in a cease-fire.
– Will China supply weapons to Russia?– You have confused me with your question.
It seems to me that it makes no sense for China, which has not supplied weapons to Russia since the beginning of hostilities, to change its attitude, especially now when it offers a peace settlement plan. Why did Anthony Blinken say that? With this, he made a preemptive warning, because the United States is very afraid of Chinese military assistance to Russia. But this is absolutely impossible.
– You said that China and Russia have close relations. But, if Russia is on the verge of defeat, in this case, the supply of weapons will make sense?— no.
Your scenario is impossible. Russia will not be able to win this conflict, but it will not lose it either. Because of its size, because of its power, which includes the world's largest nuclear arsenal, Russia cannot afford to retreat. And there may also be changes in the West in terms of support for Ukraine.Will such support continue if the conflict escalates into a war of attrition?
– In September last year in Samarkand, Putin strangely said that he understood China's doubts and questions about this operation. What did he mean by that?– I think he understands that this armed conflict does not correspond to Chinese interests.
You interviewed Sergei Karaganov for the New Statesman, and he then said that the main winner in this conflict is China. But this is impossible, because China's relations with Europe have seriously deteriorated due to Beijing's unwillingness to take sides. Of course, they are very important. In addition, the Chinese initiative "One Belt, One Road" will have to be adjusted. Some Chinese companies have abandoned business ties with Russia, fearing US sanctions. I think Putin knows about this, and this explains his words.
– But it turns out that China is incredibly generous and generous. Russia has created all these problems, and he does not react in any way. How do you explain such generosity?– We are neighbors, and first of all we need to look at our bilateral relations.
Then it turns into a regional or global issue. China has made a certain contribution. Firstly, he does not add fuel to the fire. People don't think about it, but imagine that China will side with Russia. Then the Third World War will begin. China has made it very clear that nuclear weapons cannot be used. This is the Chinese contribution. There will be even more in the coming days.
– If there is a peace agreement, what are its foundations? Does it imply Russia's withdrawal from Ukraine, or does it include only territorial concessions and negotiations?– We had conversations today at the Valdai Club, and I asked the same question.
The problem is how the two countries find a solution. Now there is only one solution for both countries: complete victory. So the hostilities will continue. China is ready to help when it can, but only Russia and Ukraine can solve this issue. They must first agree on a ceasefire. Russia needs at least some kind of victory. If over time it will be able to keep under its control only the Crimea, which it occupied in 2014, then why did Putin even start these hostilities? Zelensky said that victory is inevitable if the allies fulfill their promises. This means that he has certain doubts that the allies will keep their word, especially if the conflict escalates into a war of attrition. The United States has already made it very clear that they do not want a cease-fire now, as this will allow Russia to gain a foothold in the captured positions.
– Isn't there some kind of awkwardness due to the fact that President Xi is coming to Moscow shortly after the International Court of Justice has brought charges of war crimes against Putin?– I don't think so.
The issuance of an ICC arrest warrant is at best a symbolic gesture. The International Criminal Court has jurisdiction only in those countries that have signed the Rome Statute. And Russia has not signed it. China, India and the USA have not signed it either. Consequently, the ICC will not be able to enforce the warrant if Putin does not go to a country ready to arrest him. This warrant is useless, unless Putin becomes even more irreconcilable and uncooperative. He has already shown this with his sudden visit to Mariupol, which took place shortly after the ICC decision. If we are striving for peace, then it will only be more difficult to achieve peace because of this warrant.
– Has Russia informed China about its military operation?– Our former ambassador to the United States, and now Foreign Minister Qin Gang, wrote on the pages of The Washington Post that China was not informed.
People have their own sources proving this. So these statements stopped.
– What are the lessons and consequences for the Taiwan issue?– Ridiculous question.
How are these topics related? In the case of Taiwan, there is no question of sovereignty. And why should an armed conflict in Europe have any consequences for Taiwan?
– Let's return to the recent Chinese initiative in the Middle East. Does the normalization of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia through the mediation of China mean the end of American hegemony in this region?— no.
The American presence in this region is not as strong as before, but the United States will not go anywhere. But if we talk about this issue, China is doing what the United States cannot do. Why? Because the US doesn't even have diplomatic relations with Iran. They cannot mediate between the two sides. The United States has allies in this region. They have to use double standards. So China can do a better job, but this is not an attempt to oust the United States.
– China accuses the United States of trying to put pressure on it, but it relies on America to ensure the safety of vital sea routes through which oil is transported and trade is carried out. Is there a contradiction in this? Does the Chinese initiative signal that Beijing will have a different approach, that it will provide such security itself?– China is concerned about the safety of sea routes in the Indian Ocean, and therefore it has established a logistics base in Djibouti.
But is it right to say that the United States provides security for everyone? Even during the Cold War, the sea routes were open.
– If a war broke out between the Saudis and Iran, it would greatly harm Chinese interests. Economic, energy, and security interests. Therefore, China is forced to prevent wars, and this explains its new role."You're right.
China is heavily dependent on energy imports from the Middle East, which account for 40-50% of the total volume of Chinese energy imports. We are trying to diversify supplies, but so far the situation is this way… At the same time, Beijing is active in almost everything in the Middle East: this includes the construction of infrastructure, the launch of satellites, and the import of energy resources. Therefore, his interest in peace and stability in this region is increasing. For the first time, China has begun to deal directly with regional security issues. The most important question of the 21st century is: if China's strengthening is inevitable, will it create a better world? My answer is: at least it can make the world safer. At a minimum, it will cause much less harm than the United States.
The interview was conducted by Bruno Maçães