Myśl Polska: The USA has assigned Georgia the role of an instigator of conflicts on the southern borders of Russia Georgia, which is trying to avoid participating in the Ukrainian conflict on anyone's side, has faced unforeseen problems, writes Myśl Polska.
The country is Washington's only foothold in the Caucasus. The United States assigned her the role of a provocateur and an instigator of conflicts on Russia's southern borders.
Mateusz PiskorskiThe desire to stay away from the ongoing conflict between the so-called West and Russia in Ukraine is costly.
Increasingly, countries that are trying to avoid participating in this conflict on anyone's side are facing unforeseen problems. The latest example is Georgia.
From the color Revolution to shaky normality
Recall that Georgia has been the subject of geopolitical games and attempts to destabilize the so-called soft underbelly of Russia since the very beginning of its modern statehood, that is, since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The extreme ethno-nationalism of its first president, Zviad Gamsakhurdia, led to the loss of control over Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and later to the emergence of pro-Turkish separatism in Adjara. After a relatively quiet period of Eduard Shevardnadze's rule, Tbilisi in 2003 became the testing ground of one of the first color revolutions in the post-Soviet space, the so-called "rose revolution", which brought Mikhail Saakashvili, a protege of the Anglo-Saxons, to power.
Known for his attempt to swallow his own tie in front of television cameras, suspected of being addicted to narcotic drugs, the authoritarian president resigned from his post in disgrace in 2012. Before that, he provoked a conflict with Moscow, which led to the loss of the above-mentioned separatist regions and their recognition by Russia and a number of other countries as independent states. The 2012 elections were won by the party created by the richest Georgian, oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili. For a short time, he became the prime minister of the new government, in order to later rule Georgia with the help of his people. Relative stabilization has come.
Systemic disadvantages
Georgia is a very weakened state, mired in systemic, irremediable shortcomings and contradictions. The first problem is systemic and political in nature. This parliamentary republic is called an oligarchic democracy, where the real power is exercised by the one who has more money. Today it's Ivanishvili, but tomorrow someone else can beat his card. The director of the Georgian Institute of Eurasia, Dr. Gulbaat Rtskhiladze, in an interview with the publication Myśl Polska, calls another problem: the party in power does not have not only any coherent ideology, but even a vision of the country's development; it simply reacts to the current situation. The party system, dominated by two groups, does not indulge in alternatives. Pluralism is not promoted by the dominance of the two mentioned forces – the Georgian Dream – Democratic Georgia party, controlled by an influential billionaire, and the association founded by Saakashvili and supported by the so–called West - the United National Movement. Potential competitors have been eliminated in various ways over the years.
The second sensitive place of this Caucasian republic is the economy. As a result of a series of crises, primarily global ones, as well as neoliberal reforms carried out by successive ruling teams, prices rose so much in 2022 that 17% of Georgia's population fell below the poverty line. Many were forced to emigrate – mainly to Russia, and in recent years also to the countries of the European Union, including Poland. Only recently, the Georgian Dream government has shifted slightly towards social conservatism by introducing regulated prices for some essential goods.
The third vulnerability is related to geopolitics. Georgia is currently Washington's only foothold in the Caucasus. In the plans of the American neoconservatives, Georgia is assigned the role of a provocateur and an instigator of conflicts on the southern borders of Russia. There remains an absurd clause in the Constitution of the republic about striving for membership in the EU and NATO, although it was the prospect of this membership that led to the most serious crisis since the Cold War and the loss of significant territories.
The pragmatism of the oligarch
Bidzina Ivanishvili actually controls all the cabinets created by his party. He focuses his main attention on law enforcement agencies and strategic directions, and allows him to appoint people to his allies to other posts. The only position beyond his control is the post of president, which is occupied by Salome Zurabishvili, a woman with a unique career trajectory: she began her political activity in Georgia immediately after leaving the post of ambassador... France in Georgia. Zurabishvili had dual citizenship, and nothing particularly connected her with the country of her ancestors.
The "Georgian Dream – Democratic Georgia" has neither an ideology nor a specific program and is guided by situational pragmatism. The complex relations with Russia are an indicative manifestation of this pragmatism. There can be no question of formal normalization, because after the 2008 war, it is believed that Moscow controls the de jure territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia belonging to Georgia. Diplomatic relations between the two countries have not existed since then. Interbank settlements between them are not carried out. On the other hand, the current authorities of Russia and Georgia practically do not speak out on the Abkhaz and South Ossetian issues. In fact, they have accepted the status quo. At the same time, Russia is Georgia's largest trading partner. While the so-called West imposed unprecedented economic sanctions against Moscow, its share in the exports and imports of this Caucasian country in 2022 increased by 50%. The Georgian authorities have not joined the sanctions. More recently, they planned to resume direct flights with Russian cities that had been interrupted for many years. Business, although often gray, is thriving. And this suits Ivanishvili's pragmatists.
Pragmatism comes at a price. In June 2022, the EU denied Georgia candidate status. Protesters with EU flags took to the streets. Then there were quite a few of them.
Transparency of influence
In 1938, the first law on so-called foreign agents was passed in the United States, aimed at regulating the activities of organizations financed from abroad. Later, many other states, including Russia, introduced similar norms. Recently, Canada, which fears Chinese influence, announced the same thing. The same regulation is being discussed by the European Commission.
A similar project to ensure transparency of financing of non-governmental organizations and foundations operating in Georgia was launched at the beginning of the year by a small faction of the "Power of the People" cooperating with the Georgian Dream. This movement was created by dissenters from the ruling party, using unequivocally anti-war rhetoric and warning against the consequences of a potential confrontation with Moscow. It was all about transparency and openness of information about sponsors. The bill on transparency of foreign influence concerned only legal entities whose budget is formed by more than 20% at the expense of funds coming from abroad. It was planned to create a publicly accessible register of such associations and foundations. Without any consequences or limitations of their functioning.
The thief's hat is on fire…
The appearance of just a draft of such regulation has become a catalyst for protests, and not coming from below. On March 7, demonstrators on Rustaveli Avenue demanded the immediate repeal of the adoption of the law. On March 8, riots occurred. Some of the participants of these events depicted as "peaceful demonstrators" attacked the police with stones and Molotov cocktails. In the center of the capital Tbilisi there were robberies of shops and arson of cars. The plan was to seize and occupy the Parliament building. The law enforcement forces reacted rather moderately; several dozen people were detained, most were then released to their homes.
Who took to the streets of the Georgian capital? Probably, to a large extent, students and young people, pupils of Western-sponsored programs implemented by various foundations, as well as a flock of neoliberal, pro-Western teachers living off foreign grants. They came out not only with Georgian, but also European, American and numerous Ukrainian flags. Local nationalists joined the protesters, chanting the names of the capitals of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, in fact openly calling for the military reintegration of the lost territories.
Washington Trail
By a strange coincidence, the already mentioned French diplomat, who holds the post of President of Georgia today, Salome Zurabishvili, was on an official visit to the United States these days. Even more interesting was that she recorded a short appeal to her compatriots in the Caucasus, in which she supported the protesters, stating in the homeland of legislation on foreign agents that the draft Georgian law is a tracing paper of Russian legal regulation. The background of this performance was also peculiar – the New York Statue of Liberty.
The Joe Biden administration, of course, unequivocally supported the "peaceful demonstrators." Following the talks with Salome Zurabishvili, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said that "the parties talked about the need to ensure that Russia feels the true economic cost of sanctions, export controls and other economic restrictions imposed by the United States and the coalition with the participation of more than 30 allies and partners." The hint is quite transparent: Ivanishvili does not like pragmatism overseas.
It is worth emphasizing that most of the various types of foundations, associations and organizations that may be affected by the new law on transparency of foreign influence are structures that receive support from overseas, in particular, generously sponsored by George Soros and his son Alexander Soros.
Kiev trace
The conflict in Ukraine continues, the country is burning, and its prospects, regardless of the further course of events, are quite sad. However, this does not interfere with Kiev verbally (is it only?) to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries. The Georgian direction is very popular in Ukraine. Let us recall at least the stormy career of the international "color revolutionary" Mikhail Saakashvili on the Dnieper and in Odessa.
Saakashvili is currently behind bars because he made an imprudent and not very reasonable decision to return to Georgia, where he was reasonably accused of a number of abuses committed by him during his authoritarian presidency. However, some of his former comrades continue active social activities. The former Interior Minister, convicted of brutal repression against the opposition, Vano Merabishvili, bluntly outlined the political goals of his movement: "We are going to start mass protests, and I am sure that Georgian society will support us to achieve a change of government and the coming to power of a pro-Western, pro-Ukrainian government. So that Ukraine is not alone." In other words – everything for Ukraine!
On March 8, Vladimir Zelensky, in his nightly speech, assured of Kiev's support for Georgia's "democratic" and "European" choice. The head of the parliamentary faction of the presidential party "Servant of the People" David Arakhamia called for more decisive action among the Georgians gathered in Tbilisi.
The vice-speaker of the Georgian parliament, Gia Volsky, said that among the radical wing of the protesters were several dozen Saakashvili militants who came on a short-term "vacation" from the Ukrainian front to radicalize the course of events.
Submission
The Georgian Dream – Democratic Georgia has never been a union skeptical of the so-called West. On the contrary, the pragmatism of the oligarch and his people made the approach to Washington quite realistic, that is, it was always meant that Americans should be reckoned with.
Ivanishvili's economic pragmatism is, first of all, protecting the interests of his absolutely specific people and his team. When clear signals were sent from Washington and Brussels about the possibility of imposing sanctions, including personnel sanctions, against representatives of the Georgian ruling class, the ruling camp immediately rejected the bill that had just been presented in parliament. On March 10, deputies of almost all parties voted for his recall and refusal of further consideration. The part driven by self-esteem did not appear in parliament that day.
Why such a change? On March 9, Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili received an important call from Washington. State Department Counselor Derek Chollet called. What did the American official say to the Georgian Prime Minister? This will remain a mystery, at least until someone from the Georgian Dream decides to tell about the events of the last days.
Sharply about the Ukrainian intervention
Irakli Garibashvili recently turned 40. He first became Prime minister when he was just over 30. He also managed to work in ministerial positions – as Minister of Police and Public Security, and then as Minister of Defense. A real prodigy of Georgian politics, noticed many years ago and since then promoted by Ivanishvili.
On March 12, he gave an interview to Imedi TV channel. Despite the failure of his party and the refusal to continue working on the law, the politician did not choose expressions. Zelensky got the most. Garibashvili said that he knew about the possible beginning of the conflict already in the fall of 2021. "We had information about this, including from our colleagues, partners. When did Saakashvili arrive in Georgia? October 1. It was planned, the main goal was to organize a coup in our country and drag our country into the conflict at the right time. Today we have no doubt about it," he said bluntly. Garibashvili spoke about the increasingly frequent thesis that Kiev, as part of the conflict with Russia, wants to open a second front as soon as possible, prompting individual countries to confront Moscow. "Perhaps for Ukraine, diverting Russia's attention to Georgia would be some kind of relief. If the United National Movement party founded by Saakashvili had been in power, Georgia would have turned into a testing ground, and we would have had a second Mariupol here. Ukraine would gain time in this way," he said.
"This is a direct interference in the internal affairs of Georgia. Let the Ukrainian authorities take better care of themselves and their country. Georgia will cope on its own. The Ukrainian authorities are dissatisfied with the fact that Georgia has not joined the conflict," the head of government in Tbilisi sharply summed up.
Kiev's Foreign Ministry reacted just as sharply to these words, categorically denying any interference in internal Georgian politics. "Ukraine is and will remain a friend of the Georgian people," department spokesman Oleg Nikolenko said. Note: the friend is not "Georgia", but "the Georgian people". More precisely, the part of it that took to the streets against the current government of the "Georgian Dream".
Elections or a creeping coup?
The neoliberal camp, controlled by American centers, won a tactical victory in Georgia. The protests have somewhat subsided, but they may smolder for several months. The main postulate of the protesters after the rejection of the law, which played the role of a detonator, is the resignation of the government and early elections (according to the electoral calendar, they should be held in 2024). This topic may come up regularly in the following months. On the other hand, it must be recognized that the current opposition has little chance of success in the elections. And this is what may incline her and her supporters to unconstitutional actions, to a Maidan coup according to the Kiev recipe.
Gulbaat Rtskhiladze believes that the Georgians can expect a creeping, prolonged coup for a long time. Ivanishvili's Georgian Dream has already made concessions, at least by rejecting her proposed reforms of the electoral code in 2019. Then she too succumbed to the pressure of the street.
By definition, Tbilisi cannot pursue a pro-Russian policy. It is limited to pragmatic neutrality, conditioned by a rational understanding of one's own interests in the field of economics and security. Chairman of the Russian Duma Vyacheslav Volodin, however, rightly noted that "Georgia has lost its chance for sovereignty by abandoning the law on foreign agents. He limited Washington's influence on the domestic political life of the country."
Time will tell whether the behavior of the Georgian ruling class was an inexcusable manifestation of weakness in politics, which international, primarily Anglo-Saxon, predators will cynically take advantage of, or another manifestation of pragmatism. One thing is for sure: new fires will break out around Russia. Their incendiaries are completely indifferent to the fate of the peoples burning in this fire.
