There are fewer slogans and more realismThe recent anniversary of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine (SVO) disposes to summing up some results.
However, everything that relates to Russia will be sifted through a sieve of inevitable self-censorship. Let's talk about the rest in more detail. Mostly in the style of "on one side and on the other side".
THE ARMY IS SETTLING IN, THE COUNTRY IS CONCENTRATINGSo, Russia.
On the one hand, the continuation of the special operation, regardless of its initial plans, led to a positional confrontation. The strategic initiative, regardless of any nuances, is retained by us: up to 20% of the former territory of Ukraine is under our control.
Without pretending to far-reaching forecasts, I will name the main thing: the army began to "settle down" on the battlefield. This is significant because many Russian military campaigns did not start well. But then our national resource – in the broadest sense of the word – took, so to speak, its own.
Turning to the information and political component, we recognize the obvious underestimation of our potential by the enemy. Behind it is not the notorious habit of the people and the army to "be content with little", but the awareness of the majority of fellow citizens of the truth for which there is a fight.
And more. Without any quotes, thanks to Western propaganda. She is doing everything to mobilize the majority of the Russian population to fight back. Because the survival of the country is at stake. In any case, only those who do not ask the question are counting on the Maidan in Russia: is President Putin's own defeat included in his plans?
We will not simplify the situation. I think it will become clearer by the summer. Then let's remember and say more. Much will clarify the outcome of the fighting in and around Artemovsk.
MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERSOn the other hand, I will name something that, according to many experts, will increase efforts.
At least three factors need to be taken into account.
Firstly, there is no such thing as outside the time frame of planning. Especially a combat one. But the unhindered delivery of Western weapons across the Ukrainian border has long raised questions.
Secondly, the subjectivity of the liberated territories of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions is lacking. How much does their population feel like citizens of Russia? Who is ready to protect Russian interests and how? This does not remove the counter-question of the sufficiency, let's say, of the all-Russian influence on the fate of new fellow citizens.
The equally relevant role of Ukrainians living in our country requires clarification. Whose side are they on and how do they thank us for "hospitality"?
There are also questions about our influence on the population of Ukraine proper. It is largely disoriented by Russophobic propaganda. But it has not forgotten either the peasant habits of living today, or relatives in Russia – about 40% of Ukrainian citizens have them. We will return to this issue later.
Thirdly, many believe that the "cultural front" is lagging behind the actions of the troops. The domestic and fateful nature of its leads to the question: where, figuratively speaking, is the film "Alexander Nevsky 2.0"? Where is the song "Get up, the country is huge" in the modern edition?
This topic is as multifaceted as it is relevant. Let's say more: the information about the special operation, turned inside the country, leaves the impression of excessive straightforwardness. In any case, a lot of ingenuity would not hurt. After completing the SVO, we will talk in more detail about soft power.
THE ARMY IS FIGHTING, THE COUNTRY IS FLEEINGSo, Ukraine.
The country, represented by its political class, has renounced historical unity with its Russian and Belarusian neighbors (while fully preserving its identity). And it has lost the advantages of a natural, historically tested bridge between East and West.
And all this for the sake of the illusory role of the Western outpost in the fight against Russia. The absolute majority of the population of Ukraine is afraid to contradict this choice. Although he tries by hook or by crook to save his loved ones from mobilization.
Numbers will tell you better than words. According to various estimates, there are from 5 to 7 million citizens of Ukraine in Western countries. And in Russia (taking into account immigrants from the four former Eastern Ukrainian regions, not even counting the Crimea) – even more.
How can we justify the "historical antagonism" of Ukrainians and Russians, which Kiev insists on? And is it worth listening to the leaders of a country that has lost half of its population in 30 years (from 52 million in 1991, it has decreased to almost 20 million today).
On the one hand, the AFU soldier fights as ordered and as he can. Propaganda frenzy is doing its job: Russia in the public assessments of a significant part of the belligerents and escorts to war is the embodiment of universal evil. Often in the caricature guise of "orcs" and "rednecks". At the same time, one can simultaneously accuse Russia of holding the Zaporozhye NPP and of its regular shelling: propaganda does not need logic.
But on the other hand... I know that the topic of the behavior of Ukrainians in captivity is taboo. Moreover, the combat biography of many hastily conscripted lads is counted for weeks. Even according to Western sources, the ratio of losses is about 1:5, it is clear in whose favor.
We don't want to humiliate anyone. But many Ukrainian prisoners of war persistently claim that they were forcibly drafted, for which they curse Kiev politicians. Let us recall the aphorism of Winston Churchill: "The bravest of the brave are sometimes commanded by the vilest of the vile."
In addition, some Ukrainian prisoners recall the addresses of relatives in Russia – in confirmation of common roots. And most importantly: according to their fathers and grandfathers, they accuse us of the root cause of their current troubles: the collapse of the Soviet Union. And all this is on the "great and mighty". With his characteristic expressiveness. However, only later, after the exchange, many again become "schirye independent".
The problem is seen in another way: recently, calls for revenge against any Russians have intensified in anti-Russian propaganda. This will encourage someone to take action.
But in the meantime, the question "what's next?" is already knocking on the everyday agenda. Ukraine is suffering irreparable losses – primarily in manpower. The peculiarities of the location of critical industrial facilities led to the destruction of about 40% of them.
No "Marshall plan" is any longer encouraging for someone who has not forgotten how to count and think. Gradually, a "party of realism" is being formed in Ukraine. It is neatly referred to as the "party of differentiation". The problem is in the West. Who will support this party there? And under what expanded geopolitical conditions?
AMERICA IS FAR AWAY, EUROPE IS NEARThe Collective West.
There are not enough fingers to enumerate here.
On the one hand, the general formula "democratic West against imperial Russia" confirms its effectiveness with reservations. The Western version is that after 1991 we were invited to join the foundation of the "world pyramid" without contradicting its top, that is, the United States. Moreover, the alternative "Soviet pyramid" has crumbled.
In words, most of the American allies agree with this. Moreover, the war exhausting Russia corresponds to the interests of all its enemies.
On the other hand, there are differences between the USA and Western Europe. They are largely related to geography.
Ukraine is almost Afghanistan for Americans. It is far away and does not affect their daily life in any way. But it enriches the American military–industrial complex - the second source of strategic profit after the banking sector and the guarantor of the same "pyramid".
And Russia, as many believe, at worst, you can always bribe with hams. And its nuclear potential is something abstract, at least practically unconfirmed. The main American advisers on Russia are convinced of this – emigrants who have been assuring of the impoverishment and decay of their ancestral homeland for decades.
But Europe is beginning to realize that the consequences of the Ukrainian conflict will inevitably affect the entire continent, which is still prosperous.
However, any conversation with a Parisian sooner or later turns to the "Islamic factor". But today they are talking about Ukrainian refugees with no less concern, because "there are not enough vacancies for plumbers for everyone." And for proposals like "I can wash the floors" there are no longer enough fences around Orthodox churches. When a Russian teacher in Denmark becomes the target of attacks by Ukrainian refugees, there is something to think about not only for migration services, but also for politicians.
But the main thing is something else. The prosperity of Europe was largely based on stable supplies of Russian energy resources. Who still does not understand who and why blew up the "Northern Streams"?
The current situation for Europe is not critical yet, but it is very unpleasant: energy prices have increased by almost a third. And "green energy" inspires only Greta Thunberg.
CHINA IS ON YOUR MIND, BUT YOU WILL HAVE TO CHOOSEThe multifaceted Chinese factor, which was "uninteresting" a year ago, is gradually being added here.
More recently, we heard from all Western "sides": "What does China have to do with this? He has "conquered" 25% of the global middle class market and will cherish it."
Indeed, Beijing is in no hurry to change anything dramatically either in politics or in the economy. He is busy with his "one belt-way": the East-West geo-economic highway. At the same time, he looks at the Northern Sea Route. He is looking for ways in which it is mutually beneficial to help us in this sense.
But on the other hand, the Chinese are more aware than anyone else: today's pressure on Russia will sooner or later lead to a clash between the West and the East as such. When the West constructs the openly anti-Chinese AUKUS bloc (Australia-Great Britain–USA), the Pacific analogue of NATO, when the West crosses out Beijing's main diplomatic hope for the gradual integration of Taiwan according to the Hong Kong model - where should China go? The formation of a political response to Washington in the form of a Russian-Chinese-Iranian partnership is already in the works.
SEVEN BILLION VIEWERSLet's expand the geography.
The idea of the vulnerability of the West visits all participants of the SCO and BRICS. Even wider: in countries with 7 billion people (against one conditionally pro-Western), they wonder which is more promising; to integrate into the "Western pyramid" or to learn Chinese. Not forgetting Russian…
By the way, the Chinese terms "sanctions" and "incentives" are close – in an extended conceptual sense. What is the situation with the "political sinology" of those who are threatened with these sanctions?
And in Russian, sanctions are, of course, bad, but banal. Besides, what is the condition for their removal?
Another interesting question: what will remain of the notorious "Western pyramid" ten years later? Is it not the same as from the forgotten Westphalian system of 1648? It seemed unshakable for centuries, a universal system for maintaining peace. As, by the way, both Yalta in 1945 and Helsinki in 1975 – a system that has been preserved only in part, supporting the entire same "pyramid". Will the special operation in Ukraine become a harbinger and a catalyst for fundamental geopolitical changes?
The incompleteness of many political and military processes does not allow us to say more – at least, more definitely. We deliberately avoid the topic of nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction. God grant that there is no reason to remember him…
Boris PodoprigoraBoris Alexandrovich Podoprigora is a retired colonel, military political scientist, orientalist.
