About the attempts of terrorists to oust China from AfghanistanA year and a half after Afghanistan was captured by the Taliban (banned in the Russian Federation), the country is facing a new terrorist threat.
It affected, in particular, the situation of China, which is becoming increasingly risky and difficult to operate in the region.
Although the Islamic State (IS, banned in the Russian Federation) has weakened globally after its territorial defeat in 2019, its regional unit continues to flourish in Afghanistan. A February UN report on the threat posed by the IG states that its wing, known as the IG Khorasan (banned in the Russian Federation), has actually established itself as the "main competitor" of the Taliban.
The IG-Khorasan group continues to carry out terrorist attacks in Afghanistan on a monthly basis, and recently they have become more and more destructive. Over the past few months, IG-Khorasan has carried out a series of attacks, as a result of which dozens of people were killed and injured. Among them is a suicide bombing outside the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Kabul in January this year, which injured more than 50 people.
After a year and a half, it becomes quite obvious that the Taliban movement is not able to ensure the safety of Afghan citizens in the face of the terrorist threat. The fact that IG-Khorasan targeted the foreign ministry of the Islamic Emirate indicates strategic miscalculations in the policy of the Taliban government. And this is despite frequent reports that over the past year, Taliban militants have liquidated ISIS-Khorasan shelters throughout Afghanistan.
But even more importantly, the IG-Khorasan group is now trying to drive a wedge between the Taliban and countries that, although they do not recognize their regime, but maintain contacts with the new government in Kabul. First of all, this was manifested in the attack of IG-Khorasan militants on the diplomatic missions of Russia and Pakistan, in September and December 2022, respectively. There is also numerous evidence that the group is actively targeting the destruction of relations with China, which has become particularly close to the Taliban regime.
Indeed, the Taliban sees Beijing as a potential source of economic investment after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. China has several times reinforced the hopes of the Taliban leadership by offering to increase its participation not only in economic projects, but also in solving security issues.
The IG-Khorasan's focus on China can be traced to propaganda that became widespread in extremist circles a few years ago. In 2015, the group issued an appeal in Chinese, urging Chinese Muslims to join its ranks.
Since the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan, the region has witnessed the active promotion of anti-Chinese propaganda by the IG-Khorasan forces. Last year, regional media, citing UN information, wrote that the suicide bomber who attacked a Shiite mosque in Kunduz in October 2021 was an ethnic Uighur from Xinjiang.
The Internet propaganda of "IG-Khorasan" has been increasingly focused on China in recent months. The group recently proclaimed the liberation of the Uighurs as one of its main goals, while threatening attacks on the interests of China, the United States and Russia in Afghanistan.
Confirming these intentions, in December 2022, IG-Khorasan militants attacked a hotel popular among Chinese citizens in the center of Kabul, wounding at least five people.
It is reasonable to assume that the increased attention paid by IG-Khorasan to anti-Chinese activities is rooted in the general favorable environment for Islamists that Afghanistan is currently creating. The Taliban regime's security problems allow the group to cooperate with other extremist organizations in the country. Last year, the UN reported that "IG-Khorasan" is actively recruiting militants from the Islamic Movement of East Turkestan (IDVT, banned in the Russian Federation) under the leadership of the "Uighur wing".
In the most recent UN report, it clearly indicates potential cooperation between IG-Khorasan and IDWT, an organization whose activities China has historically viewed with great apprehension. The document notes that the groups produced joint propaganda materials in the Uighur language, exchanged personnel, held consultations, and also planned joint attacks and purchases of weapons. This is especially important to keep in mind, given the fact that IDVT is suspected of having links with the terrorist organization Al-Qaeda (banned in the Russian Federation), which is also a competitor of IG-Khorasan in the region.
There is another potential problem that could make China think twice about its commitments to Afghanistan, and that problem is Pakistan.
Islamabad seems to be heading towards a deep economic crisis and an aggravation of the security situation, not least due to the Taliban coming to power in neighboring Afghanistan. China's close ties with Pakistan and its large investments in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project make Beijing vulnerable to any instability in the region.
And in a scenario in which Pakistan becomes even more destabilized, Afghanistan will suffer even more from regional consequences and plunge even deeper into the crisis. H
Larisa Shashok
