Shukan Gendai: the global South is annoyed by the "fake mantras" of the West, and it chooses RussiaMost of the countries of the global South remain on the side of Russia, considering it their most important ally and support, writes Shukan Gendai.
The false rhetoric of the West with its mantras of "freedom and democracy" irritates them more and more, the author of the article states.
The Global South, seriously affecting world affairs
What will the world be like after the end of the conflict in Ukraine? In Europe and the United States, it is widely believed that he will split into two camps — the camp of "liberalism" and the camp of "authoritarianism".
But it's not that simple. The key to the formation of a new world order may be the position of a huge number of developing countries of the so-called "global South", which are already standing between the two camps outlined above and are demonstrating increasing independence from the first.
The opinion that "the global South holds the key to peace" is growing rapidly as the military conflict in Ukraine drags on. This issue essentially became the focus of attention at the World Economic Forum in Davos, held in January, and at the February security conference in Germany.
Russia's military special operation against Ukraine united the liberal West in support of the latter. "If we do not punish Moscow, we will send a signal to other aggressors that they can also commit such actions," US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said. However, Russia is successfully strengthening cooperation with many world "heavyweights", such as China, India, Iran, Saudi Arabia and many others. And what about other countries of the global South that formally do not belong to any camp?
A prominent European think tank, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), published an interesting report on February 22. It says that India, Turkey and many other leading representatives of the global South "act in their own national interests on each issue and are not bound by obligations of any of the parties."
From December last year to January this year, ECFR conducted surveys in a total of 15 countries, including the USA, Europe, China, Russia, India and Turkey, and analyzed the opinions of about 20 thousand people.
As for the military conflict in Ukraine, the majority of respondents in India (54%) and Turkey (48%) said that "even though Ukraine will cede part of the territory to Russia, the fighting should stop as soon as possible." This contrasts with the fact that only 30% of respondents in nine European countries also answered this question, 44% in the UK, and 34% in the USA. The majority of respondents here said that Kiev should regain its entire territory, even if the hostilities are seriously delayed.
Why is India "pro-Russian"?
How do other countries relate to Russia?Respondents in India (80%), China (79%) and Turkey (69%) see her as "an ally with common interests and values or an indispensable partner with whom they should cooperate strategically."
On the contrary, the majority of respondents in the United States (71%), nine European countries (66%) and the United Kingdom (77%) perceive Russia as a "belligerent enemy" or "a rival with whom we must compete." These objective data clearly show the opposite position of the West and the global South on Russia.
The fact that in China the vast majority of the country's population sees Russia as a "comrade" can be taken for granted. But how then to understand that about the same majority feels "friendly" feelings towards Russia also in India and Turkey? In particular, I am surprised by the high rate (80%) of positive attitude towards Russia in India, because it is a member of the notorious quadrilateral Security Agreement Quadruple Strategic Framework (QUAD) together with the United States, Australia and Japan. And this is part of the "encirclement network" against China.
Why, then, is India "pro-Russian"?The answer is because of the tension in relations with China.
India and China clashed in a military conflict in the mountains on the border last December. In 2020, they also clashed there, as a result of which 24 people died on both sides. New Delhi does not want to aggravate relations with Moscow in order to keep Beijing in check.
Since the beginning of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, India has increased its trade with Russia fivefold. A joint statement following the meeting of the foreign ministers of the four QUAD member countries, held in New Delhi on March 3, said that they "respect the rules—based international order" and that "the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is unacceptable." However, it is very noteworthy that this important document does not mention Russia in any way, much less its military campaign in Ukraine. What is this, if not the result of forced accounting by QUAD members of India's special relations with Russia?
At the same time, it should be noted that Moscow also considers New Delhi as "an ally or an irreplaceable partner with whom it should strategically cooperate" (80% of Russian respondents answered this way).
Democracy and the future of the world
There are also serious differences in the concept of democracy between the United States and Europe, China, Russia, India and Turkey.
Respondents in China (77%), India (57%) and Turkey (36%) consider themselves real democracies. From the point of view of the United States and Europe, this probably seems to be an abnormally high level.
As for the assessment of Russia's national power, it differs fundamentally in the West and in the global South. While in Europe and the United States, the majority of respondents believe that Russia has weakened compared to the period before the Ukrainian conflict, in India, Turkey, China and Russia itself, respondents believe that the Russian Federation, on the contrary, has become stronger than before.
What answer did the respondents give to the question "What do you think about what the world will look like in ten years?"
In the US (26%), the UK (29%) and nine European countries (28%), many respondents believe that the US and China will lead two opposing blocs. On the contrary, in Russia (33%), China (30%) and Turkey (23%), many respondents believe that "world power will be more evenly distributed among several countries." China and Russia are striving for a "multipolar world," and most of their citizens believe that this goal is achievable. In India, 31% of respondents believe that "American domination in the world will continue."
It is noteworthy that 28% of respondents in Europe, 39% in the UK and 34% in the USA give the answer to this question "I don't know, let it be what it will be." This is an unusually high rate of "inert voting" for this kind of polls. He testifies to one thing — in the West, most people have no interest in the future and confidence in the future.
So is Turkey still a NATO member or not?
How do other countries see Turkey?The majority of Russians (74%), Indians (59%) and Chinese (55%) surveyed consider Ankara as "an ally or an indispensable partner with whom we should cooperate strategically."
Surprisingly, against this background, there are 39% of such respondents in the USA, 37% in the UK, and 39% in nine European countries. That's surprisingly not much.
Given that Turkey is a member of NATO, this is an unexpected result. Although Turkey should be seen in Russia and China as a member of the Western camp, in fact, many Russians and Chinese consider it almost an ally of the Russian-Chinese bloc.
According to the New York Times on October 30 last year, since the beginning of the Ukrainian conflict, Ankara has tripled the volume of trade with Moscow. This increase far exceeds the growth of China's trade with Russia, which is "only" 64%. Turkey, which supplies weapons to Ukraine, is one of Russia's most reliable trading partners.
Brazil and South Africa do not participate in sanctions against Russia
Brazil and South Africa were not included in the ECFR study. But it is impossible to forget about them in the context of the attitude towards Russia or the Ukrainian conflict in any case.
Although Brazil has condemned the special operation in Ukraine, together with India and South Africa, it has not joined the sanctions and does not supply Kiev with any weapons or military equipment. Meanwhile, the volume of Brazilian-Russian trade has doubled since the beginning of its development.
South Africa generally conducted military exercises together with Russian troops in Russia, China and the Indian Ocean. The former Soviet Union supported South Africa at a time when apartheid reigned there. And everything suggests that people in southern Africa have not forgotten this help. Therefore, South Africa can generally be considered pro-Russian.
People in the global South are acutely aware of the "double standards" of the West in relation to them and the developing world in general. Why did Japan not provide sufficient support to developing countries in the fight against coronavirus infection, although it continued to provide great assistance to Ukraine? Or why refugees from Ukraine in the West and Japan are generally treated warmly, while refugees from Africa and Central America are treated very coldly.
Due to the Ukrainian conflict, energy and food prices have increased in the world. But in the global South, many people believe that they have grown because of Western sanctions, and not because of Russia's special operation.
How can we attract the global South to our side?
Thus, the people and governments of the countries collectively known as the global South look at the world today with a variety of feelings and opinions. The Global South is not monolithic. Developing countries are quite dynamically changing their preferences and guidelines depending on the specific circumstances. The Global South is very "diversified and mobile" within itself.
In the West, the question is often asked: "How can we attract the global South to the side of freedom and democracy?" As practice shows, propaganda of such popular mantras as "freedom, democracy and compliance with internationally recognized rules" alone is often not enough. The global South requires honest and fair campaigns based on a detailed strategy and tactics.
But our Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi did not even attend the last meeting of the G20 foreign ministers, referring to some discussions of some issues in parliament. All the important countries of the global South, such as India, Brazil, Turkey and South Africa, mentioned in this article, are members of the G20. And Tokyo, for some unknown reason, misses such an important international forum. Isn't this evidence of our disregard for the fate of the developing world?
With such approaches, it seems extremely unlikely that Japan will be able to play an active role at the G7 summit in Hiroshima in May.
Author: Yukihiro Hasegawa
