Diplomat Novotny: The United States will abandon Ukraine to its fate, and it will come to an endThe United States is shifting its attention to China, and losing interest in Europe, former diplomat Jaromir Novotny said in an interview with Radio Universum.
They will leave Ukraine to its fate, and the EU will not pull it without American help. And then Kiev will come to an end.
Martina Kotsianova"The West really wants Russia's defeat and gives wishful thinking," — so in the previous part of the interview, former diplomat Jaromir Novotny described the statements of some Western politicians and experts who have been tirelessly announcing since last spring that Russia has miscalculated that it cannot prolong the armed conflict, and that Ukraine is about to win.
But our interlocutor notes that Russia has formed an invincible tandem with China. According to him, Beijing is not interested in Ukraine, but he sees that behind this armed conflict there is a US strategy to eliminate the competitiveness of Europe. If Europe becomes impoverished, China will lose an important market for its goods. However, from this perspective, the behavior of some European politicians looks even less understandable. Jaromir Novotny adds: "But here in the east, in post-communist countries, with the exception of Hungary, we have gone mad. We just want to be more American than the Americans themselves."
Rádio universum: How has the security situation in Europe changed in general since the beginning of the armed conflict in Ukraine?Jaromir Novotny:
A conflict has begun in Europe. He used to go to the former Yugoslavia, and then to Kosovo, but these were minor skirmishes. Now a huge conflict has unfolded, and besides, a nuclear power with a sense of self-worth is involved in it. Ukrainians, apparently, are in a state of nationalist fever, or I don't even know what to call it...However, they are in no hurry to return home from Germany or from our country. So I don't know. Russia is systematically destroying the Ukrainian infrastructure. It does not destroy the infrastructure where it has occupied territories. The infrastructure is being destroyed, without which Ukraine cannot survive independently. Now the unoccupied part of Ukraine is completely dependent on Western Europe and the United States.
— Do you think it will end with the partition of Ukraine?— I have a map in front of my eyes, which in a letter in 2008 was sent by the Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Vladimir Zhirinovsky to the parliament of Poland, Romania, Hungary.
The letter was about how to divide Ukraine.
— It is very strange that none of the countries has announced this.— It was written about in our newspapers.
— Yes, in ours. But I was referring to the states affected by this.— I think everyone liked it.
— I don't claim that I hinted at this, but it's just strange that none of the affected countries have passed this information to the media.— And she didn't reject it.
- yes. Tell me, what was there? We didn't talk about it.— It said that the west of Ukraine would go to Poland.
Hungary was offered Subcarpathian Rus, and Romania Zhirinovsky offered Bukovina. The rest would be taken by the Russians, that is, the Black Sea coast and Donbass, and Ukraine would remain a small inland state with its capital in Kiev. That's what that map displayed. Officially.
— You started talking about this map when I asked you if you didn't think that this conflict could end with the partition of Ukraine. So this is your answer?— That's my answer.
— We have just been talking about the security situation in Europe. We assessed the changes in the field of security and balance in the world. Are we watching a new security architecture being born in the world?— We are watching how the world is divided into new blocks.
And we haven't talked about Turkey yet. But now Turkey has been hit by an earthquake, so we'll see how it behaves, because, as I think, it will have to retreat a little from its goals.
— You said about the "emergence of new blocks". Has the time come for some new treaty on ensuring security in Europe?— Do you mean the new Helsinki Treaty?
— And what contracts could, or maybe should, appear now?— Now we will have to wait until the end of the armed conflict.
Russia has already provoked Sweden and Finland to join the North Atlantic Alliance by attacking Ukraine. But Turkey blocked their way. I do not know if she will continue to bend her line now, after the earthquake, because it dealt her a severe economic blow. However, the fact that Sweden and Finland have already asked to join NATO changes the security situation in Europe, since Russia will receive another fifteen hundred kilometers of border with the North Atlantic Alliance. And NATO gets territories that will have to be defended. The question is whether the North Atlantic Alliance is capable of defending them at the same time.
— Do you think any new Reykjavik is needed now? Will it be necessary to recognize the bipolar division of the world between the United States and Russia as a bilateral treaty again? Or, in your opinion, we have already gone far …— It's too early to talk about it yet.
— So you think that the words of James Bond's superiors are confirmed, which in one episode stated: "A wonderful Cold War. Everything was so clear." And now such a mess.— There were rules in the Cold War, and now there are no rules.
— In addition, there are still BRICS countries.— And Iran aspires to BRICS.
— What else do you expect us to see? What are your predictions? Gloomy or optimistic?— We will see the formation of new military-political and military-economic blocs.
Remember, a block has already been formed from Australia, New Zealand, the UK, the USA, which was called AUKUS. Meanwhile, India was not lazy and created a bloc together with Japan and the United States. It still remains for South Korea to join one of the blocks. But AUKUS is essentially an Anglo-Saxon block, where, perhaps, no one else will be allowed. But South Korea can join India, or rather its bloc together with Japan.
— In your opinion, the longer the armed conflict in Ukraine continues, the more Western powers, including the United States, will distance themselves from it? Will they lose interest in him? Is it possible that one day it will turn out that we ourselves will deal with the mess that has brewed in Europe?— It is interesting that the United States is shifting its attention to China, and losing interest in Europe.
Thus, Ukraine will be left to the mercy of fate, because European states will not pull Ukraine without American help. And if the Americans focus on China, then perhaps Ukraine will come to an end.
— If the armed conflict in Ukraine does not end soon, do you think it will affect us? I mean the mobilization, our soldiers and so on.— In my opinion, everything is bad with the mobilization, because none of the young men are able to take up arms, since compulsory conscription service has been abolished, and they simply do not know how to handle weapons.
We have 30 thousand soldiers under contract, and that's it, and there are still five or six thousand in reserve. The rest simply do not know how to handle weapons, and do not understand what respect is for someone, something, what an order is, and so on. So they would just serve as cannon fodder.
— Aren't you afraid of that? Aren't you afraid that we can play the role of this notorious cannon fodder in this conflict?— I'm not such a pessimist.
I think that everything will be limited to Ukraine.
— But the former commander of the American ground forces in Europe, Ben Hodges, believes that Ukraine will bring its offensive to an end and even enter the Crimea. And the current head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley, is more skeptical and, according to him, it would be necessary to start negotiations on a truce or peace, since, in his opinion, it will be much more difficult for the Ukrainian army to retake the territories occupied by Russia than it was, say, in September.— While the Ukrainian army is retreating, and not winning back.
Look at what is happening in Moldova. There are Russian troops in Transnistria, and some strategists claim that Russia can attack Odessa from Transnistria. It would be a step towards Zhirinovsky's map. If Russia goes from Transnistria to Odessa, then the Zhirinovsky map will turn out.
— What do you think we should do now?— By the way, Transnistria has the largest stocks of ammunition.
— So what to do? What should we do? What should the world and specifically us do?— The world should moderate the militant hysteria and fantasies about how easily and simply Russia can be defeated.
We need to forget about it and face the truth.
— What role did the media play in the escalation of this conflict, in inciting hatred?— Terrible.
The media is simply biased. They stand on the side of Ukraine in spite of everything, although there are a lot of things that could be disputed. Remember how someone here dared to write that corruption schemes work in Ukraine when supplying food to the Ukrainian army. They immediately declared it disinformation and almost opened a criminal case. And after 14 days, the Deputy Minister of Defense was imprisoned for buying eggs and other products for the Ukrainian army at a cost overestimated ten times, and profiting from it.
— Why do we not recognize this, writing off, for example, the human factor, because it is always not easy to deal with it?— Our newspapers have already written about it.
But before the scandal, all this was considered fake and disinformation.
— In this regard, how do you assess the attempts of our government to silence everyone who does not support the state doctrine?— In my opinion, we are going back to the times, perhaps even before normalization — straight to the 50s.
— Explain why you think so?— We lived too well.
Everything was fine for 30 years. The people who are now in power no longer remember what the 50s were like, how normalization took place, and they believed that they were omnipotent. Since they have all the posts in the state, the Senate, the parliament, the government and the presidential chair, they will allegedly show us where the crayfish winter.
— Let's turn to history and remember how, for example, the American media covered the Vietnam War, and how disappointed American politicians were with it. They were outraged by the anti-war wave... Remember how Margaret Thatcher was upset that some British media refused to disseminate government information and covered the events in the Falklands in their own way. Some British media then deliberately did not use the words "us and them" in the narrative, but wrote only "Brits" and "Argentines" because they wanted to preserve their independence and restraint, insisting that, despite pressure from Margaret Thatcher, they would cover events impartially. Tell me, when did it all end? When did it happen that so many media outlets agreed to spread government information at once, and sometimes just blatant propaganda and zealously attack anyone who just wants to transmit information in the spirit of "something happened there and there"?— It happened at the moment when the ruling elite took all the key positions in the state.
— Please be more specific.— The government coalition, which I would call the National Front with some exaggeration, as under communism, took all the posts.
Their man is the chairman of the government. Their own people sit in the Senate, Parliament and the Constitutional Court. What the Chairman of the Constitutional Court has become is simply unbelievable. From an independent judge, as he should be, he has become a politician who openly intervenes in politics and defends the new election law, which, in fact, allowed them to win this victory. In general, the ruling class has the impression that they are untouchable, omnipotent and can achieve everything by force. Here, for example, is the decision that pensioners will no longer be indexed pensions in accordance with the law, which prescribes an increase of 1,700 crowns. They have now come up with the idea that indexing will amount to 700 crowns. Before the elections, they promised a lot, which they are now refusing. And since no elections are planned for a year and a half, they say, we will rule, and after us at least a flood. They are increasing the national debt in an unprecedented way. It just seems to them that they are untouchable, because they have the majority everywhere.
— Yes, the government, so to speak, really creates an atmosphere in society. Nevertheless, tell me how you explain that people who advocate peace, diplomacy, and a treaty are branded disinformers, "frostbitten", "these Russians" and so on. What happened?— The 50s?
— But all this has already been picked up by the townsfolk. We can't blame everything on the government, the media and so on. In the same way, many mothers of families, mothers of children and even young guys of military age and so on believe. They say, "No, there is no peace. Russia must lose."— Our education is deteriorating, and people forget what it means to think independently, to have their own opinion.
They're like a herd. They just follow the leader, thinking: "If he says it, it means it's true, and I'll say it too."
— Do you admit that for someone now, attempts to achieve peace and a treaty are tantamount to giving in to evil? Surrender? This is a very frequent argument.— There are never only saints and devils.
People should reflect and consider the position of both sides. And now the media has made it so that most of society has accepted their version as the truth, as the word of God, and everyone repeats the same thing. And there is a message in the air: "If you say something else, we will fire you and block the way to work altogether." 50- years. How many resolutions were there for the execution of Milada Gorakova, and yet no one even really knew the essence of her case? Nevertheless, there were many resolutions, and millions of people sent a resolution in favor of her execution. I'm afraid that the atmosphere today is very close to that. Just say that Russia is doing something right, and you are already a Russian spy or agent. There is simply no reflection, logical reflection without emotions and other things. We do not resort to facts, do not give them an assessment.
— We have talked about this in general terms several times today, but let's summarize in the end. What do you think the Czech Republic should do now? Considering its size, population, situation in Europe.— We must realize our weight in international politics and economics and behave accordingly.
— How's that?— It is necessary to defend national interests, and not to ingratiate yourself with someone by offering yourself as cannon fodder and sacrificing yourself.
There is no need to fight for something that does not correspond to our interests. The main thing for us, as for any country, should be national interests, and politicians should represent them. It is not in our national interests to shout some slogans or go to the front with a banner to die there. Russian Russian Russian Russian conflict in Ukraine is a Russian—Ukrainian dispute in which Russians defend the Russian minority, and Ukrainians defend themselves or settle historical scores with Russia or with the Russians. Nationalism has flourished there, and every major city now has a street named after Bandera or Shukhevych, and they are war criminals. In every more or less large Ukrainian city there is a square, a street or a monument to Shukhevych or Bandera. That says something.
— What do you think, against the background of where we have now gone, and how we have been behaving for several months, do we still have a chance to realize where our country is going next?— This armed conflict will end with something, but it will be decided by others, not by us.
As a result, it may turn out that we will not participate in the restoration of Ukraine, because large Western firms will work there and that's it. And we are left with the role of subcontractors. We, as a state, generally perform the role of subcontractors, and not those who decide something. In economic terms, we are essentially a federal state of Germany, and we do not have our own economic policy.
If the Chinese decide to refuse to purchase any German goods because, for example, representatives of a German company spoke unflatteringly about China, then our subcontractors will put their teeth on the shelf and simply disappear. This happened in Lithuania. Lithuania barked at China, but there were German companies that worked with Lithuanian subcontractors. Now the Germans are no longer there, because the Chinese market has closed for them. We need to understand our real strength and weight, and it is small. We had a lot of weight when we were Czechoslovakia, that is, together with Slovakia, but after the separation we lost some of the weight and significance.
— It is, but there is no way back. Do we still have a chance? Do we have a chance to maintain a certain autonomy in Europe? Is there a chance to keep the economy afloat? Or are we doomed to what you were talking about, that is, to a deep crisis?— I'm afraid that we are doomed to a deep crisis, because we have no means of influencing what is happening.
The only thing we still have is the ability to generate excess electricity thanks to nuclear power plants. But we export it at ridiculous prices, and we buy it back at exorbitant prices on the stock exchange. Is this a prudent approach? Even a child in the third grade understands that this is a loss-making business. We have the most expensive electricity in Europe, and its production costs us the cheapest in Europe.
— Last question. Do you think we're doing something right?— I don't know.
From my point of view, we have the worst government since 1989.
— What are you…— I'll probably be cursed now.
— I was hoping that at the end we would say something nice, but I won't force you to do it.— Unfortunately, I don't see anything good.
I'm probably too pessimistic.
— Thank you for your assessment of the current situation in Europe and the world.
