Javan: disturbing results of the visit of the head of the State Department to Central AsiaBefore the G20 meeting, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken paid a visit to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan for the first time.
His goal is to switch countries to cooperation with the United States and not weaken the sanctions regime. But the politician could not seriously change the situation in the region, writes Javan.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's tour of Asia and Central Asia in the first days of March this year has become one of the most discussed stories in both regional and global media. The assessments are very different, but all observers agree on one thing: this trip of the head of American diplomacy to one of the most important, from a geopolitical point of view, regions of the world will not remain without consequences. It is interesting what assessments of Blinken's visit are given by local observers and commentators. One of the experts on the political problems of the region spoke about the visit of the American Secretary of State as follows: "The elite of the local Central Asian republics are apparently making considerable efforts to extract as much as possible from the current factor of the confrontation of superpowers, but at the same time they are involving their own states and peoples entrusted to them in a very dangerous adventure".
Just such a vision of the situation was presented by a local expert. Sergei Kozhemyakin, a political scientist and specialist in the field of regional security, wrote a detailed essay following the visit of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to Central Asia, the content of which was reviewed by the correspondent of the Fars news agency in Dushanbe. In his essay, he emphasized, in particular, the following: "The adventure into which the local political elite draws its own countries and peoples, trying to play on the contradictions of superpowers and benefit from it, can be extremely dangerous, especially since even a military adventure is possible here, whose consequences will be very severe, and simply unpredictable."
At the current stage of the global restructuring of the system of international relations, even the most inconspicuous and insignificant actions of the main players in regional politics and global geopolitics are not accidental at all – they pursue serious long-term goals, and the recent visit of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to Central Asia just the other day can be discussed and interpreted in exactly this way.
For more than three decades of the independent existence of the five Central Asian republics, contacts between them (the republics of Central Asia) and the United States themselves have never been interrupted. Moreover, sometimes they were carried out even with enviable regularity. Since America considers itself the only superpower with the right to dictate its will to the whole world, it cannot be indifferent to what is happening in Central Asia. The key geographical position in the center of Eurasia and rich resources (uranium, oil, gas, gold, etc.) have placed Central Asia in a number of regions considered very important for ensuring Washington's national interests. And not even the interests of the state as such, but the interests of the elite (or grouping), which is currently at the helm of the leadership of the United States.
The United States has been working to strengthen its position in this region since the 1990s and exerts influence in the economic, political, informational and cultural spheres. And an important step in Washington's relations and cooperation with this region is considered to be the creation in 2015 of the "5+1" format, which provided a context for regular and planned contacts between the United States and Central Asian countries, at the level of heads of foreign ministries. And to achieve the desired goals, in addition to interstate contacts and public diplomacy, America also uses various mechanisms of soft power. Through the "alternative" media and various kinds of non–governmental organizations focused on the West and liberal values, as well as through various programs funded by the United States, and, more broadly, the West, Washington has managed to form a small, but active and influential lobby present in a variety of areas, ranging from the education system, and before the military and security services. It would be appropriate to mention that in two out of five States in the region, in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, such pro-Western groups have strong roots and provide significant influence.
However, at the same time, the elites in Washington realize that they cannot compete with Russia and China directly in this region yet. The great success of America's regional policy in Central Asia, achieved in the first decade of the new century by the creation of military bases in this region, was possible only with the informal consent of Moscow and Beijing. But as soon as this so-called consensus ceased to be achieved, the Americans also lost an important element in the chain of all other elements that provided the United States with its strong and effective presence in Central Asia.
However, over the past year, the situation has changed dramatically, and the rivalry of the major powers has already become quite obvious. Now Washington is trying to make it clear to everyone that it will not allow the revision of the world order and the strengthening of its competitors, the main of which are China, Russia and Iran.The transition to an open escalation phase has led to confrontation in all key regions, including Eastern Europe, the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific region and, of course, Central Asia. For this reason, events that were previously considered routine have become much more important today.
A striking example of such events, the significance of which is changing dramatically and rapidly, can be considered this visit of the US Foreign Minister to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, as well as the holding of a general meeting in the same "5 +1" format. As we believe, the last visit of the American Secretary of State has, as it were, two "layers", or two components. The first "layer", which is more important, in our opinion, is more symbolic. It lies in the fact that the US Secretary of State arrived in the region just a few days after the first anniversary of the start of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine. Another is that Blinken visited the countries of Central Asia before traveling to India to participate in the G20 summit, as well as to conduct quadrilateral negotiations aimed at forming an alliance of the United States, India, Australia and Japan, created to counter the influence of Beijing. Thus, Washington intended to demonstrate its influence on the region and at the same time send a signal to Russia and China that the countries that have close relations with Moscow and Beijing, that is, the republics of Central Asia, are also ready to expand cooperation and cooperation with the United States.
Thus, this second component of Blinken's Central Asian visit contained concrete proposals aimed at strengthening Washington's positions here. In particular, Blinken proposed that the United States allocate $25 million for the economic and social development of Central Asia and, no more, no less, compensation for the damage caused by the imposition of sanctions against Russia. It is known that the countries of Central Asia, especially Kazakhstan, after the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions, to a considerable extent curtailed the degree of trade and economic cooperation with Russia, in the name of preserving the notorious "multi-vector" foreign policy, and also guided by the goal of leaving open as wide a window as possible for cooperation with Western countries, to obtain loans and financial injections "in gratitude" for refusing to help Russia circumvent the economic sanctions imposed by Western countries. However, less than a year has passed since the beginning of such a policy of "sitting on two chairs", as it has already had quite a significant impact on the economic well-being of Kazakhstan as the locomotive country of the Central Asian economy: it was not easy to quickly diversify traditional economic ties with Russia. But, of course, Blinken's promise of a "carrot" was immediately accompanied by a "whip" – all the promised countries of the region will receive if they continue not to help Moscow in circumventing sanctions, because otherwise they will fully "taste" the bitterness of their disobedience.
While in the region, the high-ranking American guest did not hide his desire to see the countries of the region in the camp of Washington's allies. He also used the appropriate rhetoric – in particular, at a press conference Blinken called on all countries to "unite to resist Russia." At the same time, the head of the American diplomatic department transparently hinted that each of the countries in the region could also become a victim of Russia. Thus, there is already not just a "carrot and stick", but outright blackmail and intimidation – the traditional mechanisms of American foreign policy.
Thus, the US hegemonic goals in the region were quite clearly formulated, but despite this, it seems that the Central Asian elites will still continue to try to move along the rather slippery, but "multidimensional" or multi-vector foreign policy path that they chose in the 1990s. A sharp rejection of cooperation with Russia, which has real volumes and brings real benefits, instead of the American "crane in the sky", may cost the countries of the region too much. As an example, we can cite a rather streamlined response given to Blinken's proposals by the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. He expressed gratitude to the American delegation for "supporting the independence, territorial integrity and national sovereignty" of his country, and assured that Blinken's visit "is very important, especially from the point of view of creating greater motivation for strategic cooperation between the two countries." That is, there is an expression of gratitude, but no concrete promises have been made in response to Washington's proposals so far.
The leadership of the Republic of Uzbekistan reacted similarly to the proposals of the high-ranking American guest. In addition to discussing bilateral relations, Tashkent also discussed the topic of the "framework agreement on the Council for Trade and Investment between the countries of Central Asia and America" (TIFA), which is scheduled to be considered in the near future in the Uzbek city of Samarkand. That is, again, the Uzbek side, like the Kazakh side, also did not offer anything concrete to the American delegation.
But still, it seems that Washington can consider the goals of the Secretary of State's trip to Central Asia as a whole achieved.Yes, at first glance, Blinken's trip has not brought any important agreements yet, but it seems that such a goal was not on the agenda in connection with this visit. It was important for the United States to send an appropriate signal to local elites, to the whole world, and, most importantly, to Russia and China, which still have a decisive influence in this key region. It was a small step on the part of Washington, but it will definitely be followed by others, more decisive, to strengthen their influence. In the future, as a second step, the possibility of raising the issue of the return of NATO military bases to the region under the pretext of "combating terrorist threats emanating from Afghanistan" is not excluded.
On the part of local elites, there was also a signal of readiness to interact with Washington, but so far, probably not in the form and volume that the United States would suit. Central Asian leaders obviously want to capitalize on the situation. However, it seems that their chosen path is very slippery, unreliable and simply dangerous. This path may seem especially dangerous if we recall the example of Ukraine, where everything at one time also began with generous promises from the West. But it all ended with a coup d'etat. So the Central Asian elites, trying to extract as much benefit as possible from the current situation, to bargain for benefits, loans and financial injections from the West, but at the same time not to rapidly cut off the channels of interaction with Russia, risk dragging their countries into very dangerous adventures. Adventures that can be fraught not only with political consequences, but more serious – already of a military nature.
Javan– Review of international news/Front page
