Image source: topwar.ru
If a war breaks out in the Asia-Pacific region between China and the United States over Taiwan, then its outcome will be decided not by an armed confrontation, but by a large-scale blockade of the island by China. Lonnie Henley, a former employee of the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Directorate, writes about this.
According to the analyst, the blockade will include the interception of ships with cargo at sea, but China will focus on blocking airfields and ports on the west coast of Taiwan. Beijing can afford an endless blockade of the island.
Taiwan will need very large US investments to break the blockade. Without them, we can only talk about victory in the first clash, which will consist in repelling the Chinese landing. But Taiwan will not be able to win the war as a whole, even with the direct participation of the United States in the conflict.
Meanwhile, China does not hide that it is preparing for the blockade of Taiwan. For example, during the large-scale maneuvers of the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA) in August 2022, actions were practiced to create "closed zones" near major ports. The establishment of air superiority, the application of sea and land strikes, anti-submarine warfare were also practiced.
Lonnie Henley believes that breaking the Chinese blockade will not be an easy task. The American military and politicians should have no illusions about this. According to the military expert, nothing that the United States armed forces are doing or planning to do will help achieve victory over China and unblock the island.
Image source: topwar.ru
The analyst divides China's possible military actions against Taiwan into two categories. The first is "punishment and coercion", which causes a change in the political course of the island to a more acceptable one. The second is the actions for the conquest of Taiwan and its incorporation into the PRC. Landing is one of the main options for conquering Taiwan, but it will require achieving at least partial superiority in the air, at sea and in the information space. A limited blockade is considered as a way to ensure the landing of amphibious forces.
An alternative scenario is the introduction of the most severe blockade of the island until it submits or collapses. Such a blockade can be endless. In the analytical works of Chinese military experts, the strategic blockade of the island is considered as the main type of operation, along with the landing operation on the island.
China's military experts are specifically investigating operations to intercept and disembark merchant ships. But, in addition to intercepting ships, the blockade will include fire strikes on key facilities in Taiwan, the destruction of ports and airfields, mining of sea approaches, cyber attacks on key information systems and IT infrastructure.
The peculiarities of Taiwan's geography only simplify the tasks of blockading the island due to the small number of deep-water ports. Any attempts to deliver cargo to the island will have to be carried out through western ports close to China.
The American analyst concludes that there are only two possible scenarios for the development of events: either China will quickly force Taiwan to surrender, or it will destroy its political and economic systems with a multi-year total blockade.
