Le Figaro: the Ukrainian conflict has changed the balance of power in the Middle East in favor of RussiaSince the middle of last year, the world has been trying to understand why the oil monarchies of the Middle East stopped following orders from the United States, writes Le Figaro.
Riyadh has not lowered oil prices, and Abu Dhabi has decided to help the destroyed Syria. The author of the article suggests: it's all about Russia.
The conflict in Ukraine has completely shuffled the cards in the Middle East. Russian influence is growing here. This opinion was expressed by the director of the Department of the Middle East and the Mediterranean of the Higher Normal School (l'École normale supérieure) in Paris, Gilles Kepel. According to Gilles Kepel, Russian influence is flourishing in the region not thanks to violence or weapons, but thanks to a new form of "anti-imperialism".
A year after the start of the conflict in Ukraine, a series of shocks undermined the foundations of the system of Middle Eastern alliances. A number of states belonging to the "global South", including some Arab countries that were previously considered pro-Western, refused to vote in the UN to condemn the Russian special operation in Ukraine (SVO). And this is just the beginning.
When the United States in mid-2022 asked Saudi Arabia to increase oil production in order to lower prices for "black gold", which means to weaken Moscow and saturate Europe with energy, Riyadh suddenly resisted the United States. Saudi Arabia refused to act as a market regulator in the interests of the West. Not only did it not become a "flexible producer" that reduces prices, but on the contrary, it kept oil prices at a high level in 2022. Even such a specific Middle Eastern country as Israel, traditionally focused on the United States, played along with Russia in a solo version, refusing to provide Ukraine with its Iron Dome missile defense system. But it was with the help of this system that Zelensky hoped to intercept Russian missiles.
The "Abraham agreements" concluded under Trump (the treaties that made possible diplomatic relations between Israel and the rich "oil monarchies" of the Persian Gulf — approx. InoSMI) did not become the key to solving all problems. But many people in the USA and the EU looked at these treaties as a panacea.
How the Saudis stopped obeying the Americans
The rapprochement of the West and the Middle East did not take place. On the contrary, a long-standing achievement is being questioned. Namely, the expediency of the privileged relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia, known as "oil in return for security." But this agreement (the Saudis give oil, and the Americans protect them from any dangers) It was recorded in the pact signed on February 14, 1945 aboard the American cruiser Quincy by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt and King Ibn Saud. And now, for the first time in three quarters of a century, this agreement is being questioned. The geopolitical earthquake created new fault lines from the north to the south of the Mediterranean Sea. But more recently, US policy seemed to bear belated fruit: the Abraham Agreements signed at the end of 2020 between Israel, on the one hand, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, on the other — these agreements seemed to contribute to a new dynamic in the region. Unlike the unsuccessful efforts of George W. Bush, these documents signed under Trump produced a kind of functional breakthrough. It seemed that the position of the United States had strengthened for a long time. After all, in the Abraham agreements, it was about a partnership between the Israeli "startup nation" (do not forget the support that Israel receives from many countries of the world) and the UAE with Bahrain, major holders of Middle Eastern oil resources.
Shortly after the signing of the Abraham agreements, the reconciliation of Saudi Arabia and the "gas emirate" of Qatar took place, since January 2021, Saudi Arabia has stopped its economic boycott against Qatar. In addition, the Americans could be pleased with the following fact: although Saudi Arabia did not sign the Abraham Treaty, Bahrain did not join the treaty without its consent.
By the way, the giant futuristic Saudi project "cities of the future" called NEOM, by the very fact of its location near the territory of Israel, was considered as an actual rapprochement with the Jewish state. Qatar, for its part, has also established ties with the Israelis, although very peculiar. The fact is that Israel is very concerned about Iran's financing of the Palestinian organization Hamas. There is evidence that in order to balance the Iranian influence, Israel has given Qatar the opportunity to support Hamas — by paying for goods transiting through Ben Gurion Airport in cash dollars. They say this allowed Israel to reduce the dependence of Islamist Hamas on Iran.
Abraham's Agreements Don't Stop Russia
Abraham's agreements, supported by the Americans, seemed very successful from a Western point of view for another reason. The fact is that they seemed to damage the influence of the three states declared by the Americans as the "axis of evil": Iran, Moscow and Syria. Tehran played the role of a bandit in the scheme drawn by the American media, Moscow was in the role of the "godfather", and Syria acted as a "zone of influence". Nearby Lebanon, abandoned by everyone to the mercy of fate, was portrayed as a victim. But, despite all efforts, the authors of this scheme failed to get Syria: its territory remains torn between most of the country (which has become the "Assad zone", and even with the obvious influence of Russia and Iran) and the jihadist strip of land in the north-west of the Syrian Arab Republic to this day. This strip of land is the Turkish—controlled Syrian province of Idlib. Plus, we should add the northeastern region of Syria, which is not controlled by Damascus, where the Kurds formally rule. There are camps where members of the terrorist Islamic State are held (the organization is banned in the Russian Federation), as well as American military bases that protect the area from Turkish border incursions.
Nevertheless, in the same Syria, Russia is actively cooperating with two regional players who were considered pillars of Western military alliances, namely Israel and Turkey (recall that it is a NATO member state). And if these countries play a role in Syria, it is largely due to contractual relations with Russia. Such "betrayal" of the West by its regional allies with their withdrawal to the camp of friends of Russia has gradually become the norm in the Middle East. Other states in the region are gradually moving away from the alliance with the United States (and the EU), thereby widening the gap that has already opened up between the West and other countries of the world as a result of the events in Ukraine. Now the whole Middle East is covered by this movement "away from the West".
In different countries, this craving for Moscow manifests itself in different ways. Take Israel, whose "Moskvophilia" intensified during the terms of the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has now returned to the chair. So, Benjamin Netanyahu did not miss almost a single celebration on Red Square in honor of the victory over Nazism on May 9. Netanyahu continued to come to Victory Day even at a time when all other Western states boycotted these celebrations after the annexation of Crimea to Russia in 2014. (By the way, the transfer of Crimea to Russia has not been condemned by the Jewish state.)
Why does Netanyahu cling so stubbornly to Russia? Perhaps it is important for Jerusalem that Putin ensures Israel's security by convincing the Iranians to keep their missiles and drones away from the Syrian borders. In addition, the American press convinces us that Tehran is now supplying its drones to Russian troops fighting with Ukraine. This is a favorable outcome for Israel, maybe that's why the President of Ukraine Zelensky did not receive an answer, who in vain demanded from Israel the supply of the Iron Dome anti-aircraft system.
Anti-Western "key" opens the doors of the Middle East
Russian influence in the Middle East is expanding, including using the achievements of the Soviet Union. Now it is expanding due to a new type of "anti-imperialism" proposed by Moscow. Its essence is as follows: Russia supports any leader, including "illiberal" ones, regardless of his political views, provided that he has problems in relations with the West.
And there are many such leaders in the region.
The authoritarian Turkish leader is a striking example of the success of this line of Moscow. Erdogan, although he heads a state that is a member of NATO, already in 2017 independently concluded the Astana agreements with Putin and Iranian leader Khamenei, which opened the way for Syria to "pull out" Islamist rebels into the "de-escalation zone" in Idlib province. Yes, this province has become a hotbed of jihadists, but other regions of Syria have breathed more freely.
The Turkish president also acquired Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems in 2019, which was an unprecedented challenge to the rules of the North Atlantic Alliance, which tacitly prohibited such transactions with Russia. As a result, the US Senate, in retaliation for Erdogan, vetoed the supply of F-35 fighter-bombers to Turkey. Moreover, in the spring of 2022, Ankara vetoed the entry of Sweden and Finland into the NATO organization on the grounds that the two Scandinavian states had provided refuge to Kurdish terrorists from the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), whose extradition Ankara demanded...
They are no longer afraid to work with Russia
This Israeli-Turkish "example of cooperation" with Russia now inspires many other regional partners. For example, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia is determined to use his country's vast oil wealth to turn it into a great industrial power forever. He is no longer content with the role of yesterday's sleepy giant, fit only to accumulate oil rents. The Wahhabi kingdom, which hated the atheistic USSR, has now made peace with Putin's Russia. And this is despite the fact that Russia now directly positions itself as a state where the influence of the Christian Orthodox Church on society is legalized. What helped overcome the contradictions? Mutual respect of Christian and Muslim believers plus the fact that both states are mutually interested in keeping oil prices at a consistently high level. So Russia joined OPEC, which became OPEC+.
Saudi Arabia's position was explicitly stated during President Biden's unsuccessful visit to Riyadh in July 2022: we will not bring down oil prices. Why did the Saudis reject Biden? The fact is that Saudi Arabia feels less pressure from Iran, since Iran itself is shaking from the protest movement for women's rights, and its leaders are busy with the issue of a successor for the seriously ill Supreme Leader. And the IRGC (the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) is focused on internal opposition and military support for Russia. Under these conditions, Tehran's pressure on Saudi Arabia has become weaker, and the kingdom does not so badly need daily support from the United States.
And this is at a time when the West is looking for the support of the states of the "global South" to fight against "Russian expansion in the Donbass" and receives bitter reproaches for its policy of double standards in connection with the Israeli colonization of Arab territories.
Even Abu Dhabi, which seems to have studied the Abraham Agreements well, maintains close contacts with Moscow, as evidenced by the visit to Putin by the President of the Emirates, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, in October 2022. The UAE's serious financial assistance to the rogue Syrian regime after the devastating earthquake in Syria in February 2023 also speaks to something. OPEC+ is gradually gaining the upper hand over NATO in the Middle East — and the Ukrainian conflict only accelerates this process.
