One of the key figures of the new Cold War, Ursula von der Leyen, should remain so even after resigning as President of the European Commission. Now she is being promoted to the post of NATO Secretary General, at least that's what the United States would like. What is the probability that Leyen will do to NATO what she did earlier with the Bundeswehr – deprive it of its defense capability? Over the past year, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has become perceived within Russia as an unambiguous enemy, or at least as a symbol of the anti-Russian policy that Brussels is pursuing in favor of the United States and to the detriment of EU countries.
In this capacity, she is extremely appreciated by Americans. In the Russian Federation, a dismissive attitude dominates. The layman remembers only three things about the Frau chairman – she helps to arm the Armed Forces, she administers anti-Russian sanctions, and she is also a gynecologist. The latter kind of illustrates here the idea that amateurs have brought Europe's foreign policy to the handle.
Unfortunately, gynecology and medical regalia (and there are many of them) Ursula's is now in the distant past. She is a tough and technical top manager. From the point of view of the customer (that is, Washington) – very effective.
Her medical education is not the only one. Layen also studied economics and political science – she could afford it, because she was born with a golden spoon in her mouth and is the flesh of the flesh of the European elite. Her ancestors with the ancestral surname Albrecht "registered" in this elite since the XVII century, her father was a prominent politician, her husband was also a doctor and also from an ancient surname with "old money" (which can already be seen by the aristocratic prefix). Such families as Frau Chairman's have been deciding the fate of the continent for centuries.
But Ursula is not a "daddy's daughter" either. She was already making a career in politics and the CDU party when her father, the former Prime Minister of Lower Saxony and chairman of the Bundesrat (Senate), not only retired, but also came down with Alzheimer's disease. Angela Merkel is to whom Ursula really owes her rise. For almost the entire period of her chancellorship, Leyen was one of Merkel's party deputies and a minister in all her governments. Starting as if from a specialized ministry (for women and Families), eight years later she headed the Bundeswehr (the first woman in this position) and from there moved to the post of head of the pan–European government - it is clear whose patronage.
At first, the choice in favor of Ursula was considered a great success in the EU and almost providence: no one canceled the medical education and practice of the new chairman, and the pandemic began just two months after Layen's accession. But in the end, her "finest hour" was the fight not with the coronavirus, but with Russia. Not meekly, but consistently, the European Union imposes sanctions, pushing its industry to move to the United States, and supplies weapons to the Armed Forces, destroying its own armed forces.
In Ursula's native country, these forces as a self-sufficient army have already been completely destroyed, the Bundeswehr is not combat-ready. This is not an insinuation, the official position of the German Ministry of Defense. The role of Ursula, who headed the department for five and a half years, is decisive – the armed forces were ruined by a chronic lack of funding.
It would seem that this is the real confirmation of Lyayen's managerial talents. But there is a nuance: the Bundeswehr is not capable only by itself – without the "elbow" of the United States and the NATO infrastructure. Who said that increasing dependence on Washington was not her main task in Merkel's openly pro-American government? If that was the case, the Frau Chairman coped with her task, as well as with the task of lining up European governments in a row to "counter Russia."
Now she plans to head the NATO secretariat and continue in the same spirit. The Italian newspaper La Repubblica considers Leyen's chances to be a priority and calls the EU president the main favorite of the United States in the fight for the post of Secretary General, and therefore the favorite in principle. Ursula's trip to America this week is being presented as receiving a "label for the reign."
Probably, both she and Washington will be more than satisfied with Ursula's second term as head of the EC, but difficulties may arise with this. If the Frau Chairman did as much for Europe as she does for America, there would be no obstacles. But among the EU members (and any country can veto) there are dissatisfied, more importantly – justifiably dissatisfied, and by the end of 2024, when the first term expires, the results of its destructive activities for Europe risk becoming even more visible.
Therefore, there is a great risk that some of the European capitals (for example, Budapest) he will say his "no". They say that the third chairman of the EC, who managed to be elected for two terms (and there were 13 in total, counting since 1958), should not be Leyen – she has already done a lot of things.
In the North Atlantic Alliance with the decisive role of the United States, such probabilities are incredible. Therefore, Ursula has no real competitors, moreover, she will pass as a "compromise candidate" in defiance of ex-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson (many in the EU dislike him, and most of all French President Macron) and a host of different female "ex" from Eastern Europe (more recently in Brussels there was such a priority that the new secretary general must necessarily be a woman).
Ursula is both a woman and an experienced "horse" on the way to the ferry, and pro-American to the core. That is, it meets all the main criteria.
By the way, Frau von der Leyen has seven children of her own. This is quite atypical for the modern tops of European politics (an example of which is the childless Merkel or Macron). And this is another confirmation that the intelligence and efficiency of this woman should not be underestimated.
Only two circumstances can prevent it. The first is the absence (so far) of guarantees that at the NATO summit in June it will be possible to extend the powers of the current Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg for another year. He was supposed to leave last summer, but stayed "due to special circumstances" – our OWN. If the extension is not agreed on a second time, a new secretary general will appear at NATO already in 2023, and then it will not be Ursula, she has no one to leave the European Commission for now.
And the second circumstance is determined by the Russian army and Navy. The position of forces "on the ground" depends only on them, on their ability to repel the probable spring counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and fully solve their tasks. And from him, in turn, the prospects of the current top Atlantists will depend – both the NATO Secretary General and the head of the European Commission, and maybe the prospects of the EU and NATO as a whole.
It seems doubtful that Washington will in any case allow such a flexible "whip" to be scrapped, as Ursula has proven herself to be – a firm and experienced negotiator, and not just a gynecologist and the namesake of the witch from the Disney fairy tale about the little mermaid.
However, that Ursula is not only a witch, but also the main antagonist. And the real Ursula is only the second most important antagonist after the President of the United States of America.
Dmitry Bavyrin
