Diplomat Novotny: Russia will not lose, it is invincible. In addition, it is supported by ChinaIn the West, they constantly talk about Russia's defeat, but it is impossible.
This country is invincible, former diplomat Jaromir Novotny said in an interview with Rádio universum. He is sure that the Russians do not threaten Europe in any way. But in response to the aggressive policy, Russia will simply close its market to the Europeans.
Martina KotsianovaHostility towards Russia grew in Europe as the contradictions between the West and Russia multiplied.
Each turning point was accompanied by another expansion of economic sanctions, which, however, did not change anything in the overall trend. And if in some cases sanctions not only did not harm Russia, but even helped, then European, and with them Czech producers lost the Russian market as a sales market and a source of cheap raw materials. Europe has been thundering with fanfare, announcing getting rid of dependence on Russian oil and gas, but tacitly bypasses the fact that dealers often buy the same Russian energy carriers, but only at significantly higher prices through intermediaries. Members of our current government sometimes make literally theatrical gestures, "fighting" with Putin's regime, and our guest, a former diplomat, now an expert in the field of geopolitics and security, Jaromir Novotny, commented on this in the previous part of the interview: "We are doing everything to ensure that Russia has nothing to do with us. This will bring us poverty and economic crisis, because we will have nowhere to export our goods."
Rádio universum: Considering the position we have taken in this conflict with regard to Russia — you yourself said that we are closing consulates, and the Russians are closing ours in response — are we in any serious danger from Russia? What do you think?Jaromir Novotny: Is there a danger that they will come to us in tanks?
No. We are threatened (or it has already happened) by the closure of the Russian market for us. It is worth asking the members of the Czech industrial unions how much they are losing in this conflict, and how much they have already lost. Although, of course, as I think, the Czechs are a very inventive people, and, undoubtedly, there will always be some third way to get there. After all, if you look at the figures, the export of the Czech Republic to Kazakhstan has sharply increased. Why? It's just that the goods are transported to Kazakhstan, and from Kazakhstan to Russia.
— And if we evaluate the armed conflict as a whole, how much longer do you think Russia will be able to conduct a special operation in Ukraine? A year? Two? More? When will her strength run out?— Think about the population.
There were 40 or 42 million citizens living in Ukraine. 12 million of them emigrated. It turns out that there are 30 million left? Of these, many men have fled abroad because they do not want to fight. Thus, Ukraine has no one to mobilize. And Russia has 135 million people (so in the original. – Ed.)
— Do you admit that Russia may surrender?- no.
Russians are used to it. They survived Stalin, and nothing worse than the system of camps and other things can happen to Russia.
— Ukraine has also experienced a lot: the Holodomor, Stalin… However, not everyone survived. Do you assume that Ukraine will surrender?— Perhaps, yes, but there will be guerrilla resistance.
After all, few people know that Bandera still fought in the Ukrainian forests until 1954 — 1955? Until 1955. The same thing continued in the Baltic States, where there was also a struggle, and the latter surrendered only in the 50s. In addition, a wave of nationalism has risen in Ukraine, which is unknown when it will subside. But the fact is that Ukrainians vote with their feet. We rarely talk about how many Ukrainians fled to Russia. They only talk about how many of them left for the West, and no one says how many people moved to Russia. And that also says something. In addition, Ukraine, and they also stopped talking about it, is the most corrupt country in the north. They say that Ukraine is the northernmost state of the southern hemisphere. In the corruption rating of 160 or 180 countries, Ukraine is on the 122nd place, that is, it leads in Europe by a large margin.
— At the end of last year, there was practically no talk about the possibility of starting diplomatic negotiations, and now we are increasingly hearing that France, for example, is leaning towards this option. Even the US hinted that it would be nice to start negotiations. From your point of view, is it real? Is it time for diplomacy? Or has the point of no return, which Henry Kissinger spoke about, already been passed?— I think that after the summer, in the fall it will become clear whether negotiations are still possible or not.
— Depending on the fatigue of both sides?— Depending on the situation at the front.
— How realistic do you think are the demands of the warring parties to the conditions for the end of the armed conflict? Until now, Ukraine has demanded that Russia withdraw troops from all Ukrainian territories, including Crimea. Russia, in turn, demanded that Russia at least remain where it is now. Is it possible to start negotiations with such requirements?— Negotiations can only begin when one of the partners is in a weaker position.
It is also important that the one who is in the best position conducts negotiations correctly, otherwise he will make a new enemy for the next hundred years.
— Tell me, who is most interested in the continuation of the armed conflict? We are already hearing that it doesn't even matter how many weapons the West will supply to Kiev, although, according to you, the ammunition depots of the North Atlantic Alliance are almost empty. The main thing, they say, is how much China is ready to help Russia and how. Quietly, as until now, or, for example, China will stop helping Moscow altogether, or, on the contrary, will begin to fully support it. How are the forces distributed now? Who does it all depend on?— Russia is a weaker partner in relation to China, but so far China supplies its goods there, and buys Russian, and consumes Russian raw materials.
China receives gas and oil from Russia, and therefore it has no revenue gap. On the contrary, Russian foreign exchange reserves are growing, and China, after the Americans shot down a Chinese balloon, on the contrary, intensified negotiations with Russia.
— So you think that China will play a decisive role in how the conflict in Ukraine will end?- no.
Russia will play it. China is not interested in Ukraine.
— But China is interested in Russia.— China is interested in Russia, and China understands that the United States is waging an economic war with the European Union, because this war, the cost of energy resources and so on are destroying European industry, and thus the United States is eliminating European competitors.
— And China benefits from this.— Of course.
— It turns out that this armed conflict is beneficial to China?— China is worried that it will lose its market, because Europe will have nothing to buy.
If European industry moves to the USA, what will remain of Europe? Uninteresting region. One day I visited the General Staff of the People's Republic of China and was sitting in a huge meeting room where a large map was hanging, and the Chinese intelligence chief then said: "Are you from the Czech Republic? From Europe? Is this that little uninteresting peninsula on the Asian continent?" And I looked at the map where China was in the middle, and realized that Europe really is a tiny peninsula on the Asian continent. He was right.
— What steps do you think China can take in the coming weeks and months? Will he support Russia more actively and openly?— China is trading with Russia, and it is even rumored that the Chinese have begun to supply weapons to the Russians.
In general, the Chinese stick with the Russians. The collapse of Russia is not in China's interests.
— And what will happen if China thinks about large arms supplies to Russia?— No, that won't happen.
I'm just afraid that China might want, since the United States is operating in Europe and Ukraine, to occupy Taiwan.
— In your opinion, is this a real threat?— The fact is that if China wanted to, it would occupy Taiwan in a week.
And Beijing would have done it a long time ago, but the eyes of the Chinese are no longer obscured by ideology. The days of Mao Zedong have passed, and now it is unprofitable for China to wring the neck of a chicken that lays golden eggs, because all the chips that are produced are made in Taiwanese factories in China. The largest investor in China is Taiwan, although few people know about it.
— In that case, why are you afraid that China will do this?— If some clique of people who want to prove that this is a single China, a single state, takes over.
What can twenty million people do against one and a half billion? Nevertheless, despite the constant squabbles, Taiwan remains the largest investor in China.
— Let's talk about the "uninteresting peninsula" on the Asian continent, as you put it, from the point of view of China. Let's think about the consequences, about how the security situation in Europe will change after the possible defeat of Ukraine. It is often said that Russia will not stop in Ukraine and will attack the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance. Are you afraid of such a development?- no.
If NATO does not take some rash steps, this will not happen. I think the North Atlantic Alliance would have been warned long before such a development of the situation: the Russians, for example, would have detonated a tactical nuclear charge over the sea. Not over the territory of Poland or Ukraine, but over the sea, and they would say: "Our patience is running out, and if you go further, we will attack you."
— Do you hope that it would be an explosion over the sea, or do you really think that Russia would choose such tactics?— That could be a warning.
The explosion is either over the Black Sea or over the Atlantic. You once talked to Professor Stanek in this studio, didn't you? He was talking about an unmanned underwater vehicle called Poseidon floating off the coast of the United States with a nuclear power plant and nuclear weapons on board. If it is used, a wave of one hundred meters high will rise — a tsunami that will wash away the entire east coast of the United States of America. Second. Do you know what would be enough to destroy the United States? If only one tactical weapon had exploded in Yellowstone National Park. When it explodes, the US will cease to exist.
— So you think that in the spirit of the Cold War, Russia and the United States are holding each other in pincers so much that we can sleep peacefully?— We can only guess.
No one can read the minds of fanatics. There are people on both sides, fanatics who are seriously thinking of destroying the enemy once and for all. There are a lot of them during the wars.
— So, let's talk about the consequences of a possible defeat of Ukraine. Would it have been followed by the resignation of Vladimir Zelensky?— Absolutely.
— And how would the security situation in Europe change after Russia's possible defeat?— It would have worsened.
- why?— Russia is a nuclear power.
The disintegration of Russia would begin, and there would appear, as some say, four or five independent entities that would fight among themselves, having nuclear weapons at their disposal.
— It is often said that the goal we want to achieve is to demilitarize, disarm, pacify and divide Russia. Do you think this is real?— We come back to the fact that the Czech Republic is a ten—million-strong state, and last fall a conference of non-Russian peoples was held in Prague.
Do you remember?
- yes.— This is another anti-Russian action that the Russians will not forget for us.
And there they really discussed which republics would appear, how Russia would disintegrate and blah, blah, blah.
— Why are you so sure that we are safe, and that we are not in danger of revenge in the form of a tactical missile? If we give the military airfield in Chaslav for F-35 aircraft, then it is likely that Russia will want to turn it into a crater.— The airfield would immediately turn into a target and be marked as a target on the maps.
— Do you think it's wrong?— When the Warsaw Pact existed, we had 10 — 15 targets in the event of a nuclear strike.
— Aren't you afraid of him yet?— Now, as it seems to me, everyone has a lot of worries with the economy, and they will have to back off, because, as it turns out, they will not pull this war economically.
The Russian economy is full of raw materials, and the Russian defense industry is working at full speed. We're all just rocking. And please note that defense plants are operating in emergency mode, and the greens are silent. But what about the planet, environmental pollution? No one is protesting. The Greens in the German government, on the contrary, are the main instigators of war. On the streets they protest against cars with an internal combustion engine, but armament and war do not bother anyone. Do you see how much falsehood there is?
— And what is the reason for it? Stupidity? Ideology?— It seems to me that many of these people are similar to Komsomol members of the 50s.
"What people?"— I'm talking about the greens.
"Just them?"— The greens are the tip of the iceberg.
— Let's go back to the front. We fantasized what would happen if Russia lost. Will this entail the departure of Vladimir Putin?— In such systems, the losing leader is punished.
— Who do you think could come after Vladimir Putin? Is it possible to predict this? Is it possible for Russia to be led by some liberal Democrat who would turn the country in a completely different direction? You talked about several groups that started fighting with each other.— You know, I don't have a crystal ball.
I am not at all sure that Russia will lose, because with the support of China, it is invincible. This tandem that the Americans have created against themselves is indestructible. Therefore, I refuse to say that Russia will lose and disintegrate.
"Okay, let's talk about something else. Not about Russia losing, but about, for example, Vladimir Putin's government leaving. Do you allow such a development of events?— This, of course, is possible, but I don't see any reason for it yet.
Vladimir Putin enjoys the support of 80% of the population.
— I'm asking…— Characteristically, the Russians rallied behind him.
They rallied behind the leader because they live with the realization that the world offends them, that everyone wants to destroy them. The Americans even say that their goal is to destroy Russia. The media write that there is an indirect war between the United States and the North Atlantic Alliance against Russia by the hands of Ukrainians, and that they are financing all this. Yes, they finance… Victoria Nuland said that the Maidan cost five billion dollars, which went to the change of power in Ukraine. She admitted it. She admitted that there are biological laboratories there, and that they had to be taken out because the Russians had captured several and had already told the Security Council about it.
— How do you explain that such consequences and news, and often just rumors, do not bother European countries at all. Do they completely ignore them when it comes to security in Europe and relations with Russia?— I think France behaves very responsibly, as well as Spain and Italy.
But here in the east, in post-communist countries, with the exception of Hungary, we have gone mad. We just want to be more American than the Americans themselves.
— Let's go back to the personality of Vladimir Putin, because we very often come across the opinion of senior leaders that Vladimir Putin, his personality, is behind everything. By order of Minister Vit Rakushan, street art with the image of Vladimir Putin in a body bag appeared, and this is very significant. Like, we will destroy Vladimir Putin, and everything will get better. From your point of view, is it that simple?- no.
I think it's not him alone who decides, but a narrow group of people in the Kremlin decides everything. Do you think he's alone, like Stalin? Everyone was afraid of Stalin, listened to what he said. It's not like that.
— I was very interested in the statement of the Russian opposition journalist Roman Anin*, who said that if Vladimir Putin had resigned as president, no matter for what reason, then oligarchs and heads of private military companies would have started fighting for this place. According to Anin, one of the main contenders is the leader of Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin. "Then the West will have to think about the fact that the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons will be in the hands of a real madman," the journalist concluded.— Yevgeny Prigozhin suffered huge losses, and Bandera suffered huge losses.
It was said that there were 50,000 of them in Ukraine, and thirty thousand have already died. Yes, no one can confirm this, but in the West they are talking about it. They are losing influence because the army is melting like snow. I don't think Russia is in the same situation. There are structures there that could rule. Remember that Dmitry Medvedev was president for a while, and Putin held a different position, and nothing has changed. There is a system there. I don't know how well the system is thought out there in case Vladimir Putin died. I don't know if there is a hierarchy, an order of actions. There was a politburo in the Soviet Union. And here I don't know, maybe his role is played by the government.
— But the West probably cannot be sure that after Vladimir Putin, someone pro-Western, liberal and peacefully oriented will definitely come.— They already had a pro-Western Vladimir Putin, but they deceived him just like Mikhail Gorbachev.
— I think that after Boris Yeltsin, Vladimir Putin definitely cannot be considered pro-Western.— Vladimir Putin was located to the West, but he saw that he was constantly under pressure.
And then Ukraine began. I think that the turning point in his attitude to the West was the Maidan of 2014. Before that, he was ready to argue, talk and cooperate with the West. After all, they agreed on an operation in Syria, where they fought with the "Islamic State" ** together. The Russian and American military remain there even now. They are still together in Syria. He was ready to cooperate, but after the Maidan, it seems to me, he said "enough is enough".
— Since you have remembered these operations abroad, let's remember how the countries live, in whose affairs the West has interfered in recent years and decades. In Afghanistan, after 20 years, the Taliban is ruling again **, restoring the old order. Only now it is better armed, organized and prepared, and besides, the Taliban are highly respected in Islamic countries. They say about Iraq that the local government now cannot even buy office paper from Iran without permission. And Iran has always been the most sworn enemy of the United States.— Not always.
I was not with the Shah.
— Yes, I was not under the Shah Pahlavi. But after the arrival of Ayatollah Khomeini, Iran became enemy number one. And this is a serious strategic problem. And I'm not talking about the most difficult situation in Libya. Isn't a similar scenario possible in the event of Russia's defeat? Could there be a completely unpredictable catastrophe? I know you don't want to talk about Russia's defeat, but we hear about it all the time. We hear about it all the time, even as one of the possible and necessary goals."It's just wishful thinking.
— That's why I can't help but ask this question.— Wishful thinking is given out as valid.
The West really wants Russia's defeat. But just look at the map.
— It's big.— It's big, and no one is able to capture it.
Nobody. Try to capture Russia — you won't have enough soldiers.
— Then why do they talk about it all the time? Probably, there are means, modern equipment, the most modern ballistic missiles, drones.
— Then Russia will use Poseidon, and the United States will be wiped off the face of the earth. And they understand it.
— Tell me, why have we come so far?— Because, probably, there are bad people in the leadership of some countries.
In the US, they talk about a "deep state". This is a group of people who control the US, and you look at what is happening to their economy.
* recognized in the Russian Federation as a foreign agent, ed.** a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation, ed.
