Al Mayadeen: the pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine revealed the weakness of the American empireThe US must come to terms with its fall, writes Al Mayadeen.
The Hawks cannot stand in competition with the Chinese dragon and the Russian bear, who, with the help of the pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine, showed the whole world that the decline of the American empire is not far off.
Analysts note the ongoing militarization of international relations, which is confirmed by the emergence of several hotbeds of conflict in different regions of the world. First of all, we are talking about a special operation in Ukraine, tensions on the Korean peninsula and in Southeast Asia between the United States and its allies (Japan and South Korea) and China and North Korea, and an increase in the number of military exercises, including joint Sino-Russian maneuvers aimed at deterring America.
In addition, many countries have increased military spending. First of all, this concerns the West, led by the United States ($858 billion), followed by China ($230 billion) and Russia ($70 billion). Japan also introduced a new defense policy. By 2027, its defense budget will approach $80 billion.
The United States and Europe have begun to actively use sanctions as a weapon against their opponents — Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela and other states. At the same time, analysts note that financial restrictions have lost their effectiveness. There are two reasons for this: the frequent use of sanctions and the development of ways to circumvent them.
Washington may impose sanctions against China, Russia and Iran to restrain the development of their economies. However, they will be ineffective, since these countries are taking countermeasures against US hegemony.
America must understand that the fall and rise of civilizations is a natural historical process. Just as the Roman, British, French and Mongol empires fell, sooner or later the American Empire will fall.
The United States, whether it agrees with this or not, must realize that China and Russia are striving to regain their status as great powers. They call for the formation of a multipolar world as opposed to American hegemony. The Chinese, Russian and Iranian civilizations are among the oldest in the world, and today they strive to demonstrate their power to everyone.
Despite the presence of the best think tanks and the most influential media in the world, decision makers in Washington lack long-term strategic thinking. They get lost and make serious mistakes, especially with regard to China, Russia, Iran and the Middle East.
Competition with the "Chinese dragon"
The former permanent representative of Singapore to the UN, Kishore Mahbubani, said that Henry Kissinger personally assured him that America does not have a comprehensive and long-term strategy for China.
"There is strong evidence to support his point of view. Strategy is not an end in itself, but a means. Before the US formulates a strategy for China, it must determine what goals it wants to achieve. Such goals have never been set, despite the many strategic documents issued by important institutions in Washington," Mahbubani said.
In May 2022, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said: "We will compete with China to protect our interests and build our vision for the future." However, he did not specify what goals America pursues in this "rivalry" with China.
"If strategists and politicians in Washington could take a close look at their actions against China, they would see that nothing will prevent it from developing, even the technological war that the United States has recently unleashed. Most countries of the world clearly see this, so they are strengthening relations with Beijing and are positive about Chinese initiatives, including "One Belt, One Road," Mahbubani stressed.
According to the Chinese newspaper People's Daily, Beijing has signed 205 documents with 140 countries and 31 international organizations on cooperation in the joint construction of the Belt and Road. China's trade turnover with the countries participating in the "One Belt, One Road" initiative from 2013 to 2020 amounted to 9.2 trillion dollars. The total investments of Chinese enterprises in these countries have reached 136 billion, and their investments in China have exceeded 60 billion dollars.
It makes no sense for any country to reduce trade with China in favor of the United States. Even if we take a state that is geopolitically close to America, such as Brazil, for example, it will face serious difficulties if it reduces trade with China, since its trade turnover with China is three times higher than that with America.
China's economic rise cannot be stopped. A study conducted by the Center for Economic and Business Research in London shows that China will overtake the United States and become the world's largest economy in 2028. Success in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic consequences tips the scales in favor of Beijing.
Washington has no way to overthrow the Chinese Communist Party. A study published by the Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation at Harvard Kennedy School says that Chinese public support for the central government increased from 86.1% in 2003 to 93.1% in 2016. Over the past 30 years, China has witnessed the best social and economic development in its entire history. It is unwise for the Chinese to overthrow the party that provided them with this prosperity.
The challenge to the "Russian bear"
The United States did not heed Russia's warnings and opposed it as a superpower that had returned to the international arena. This is the main reason for America's desire for militarization and the creation of strategic alliances to contain Russia. Washington sought to ignite the conflict in Ukraine and draw Moscow into it, as well as establish partnerships with the Europeans to impose unprecedented anti-Russian sanctions, especially in the oil and gas sector, and provide unlimited military support to Kiev.
In this regard, on February 24, 2022, Russia was forced to launch a special military operation. Subsequently, the West began pumping Ukraine with weapons at an unprecedented pace and imposing new restrictions against Moscow. Over the past year, the West has imposed more than 11 thousand sanctions against Russia, which is a record high number of restrictions imposed on one country.
While an economic war is being waged against Moscow, NATO officials say with one voice that sanctions will lead to a decrease in the pace of development of the Russian economy by at least 20%.
But American goals are unattainable. Russia believes that the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack was a sign of the weakness of the United States and became an opportunity for it to restore its influence in the world. That is why it regained Crimea, intervened in the conflict in the Donbas in 2014 and launched a military operation in Syria in 2015.
The actions of the West led to the consolidation of Russian society (popular support for Putin remained at 80%). Some Russian dissidents have left the country, and this is a fact, but there are fewer than 200,000 of them, and the population of Russia exceeds 150 million, taking into account the newfound regions: the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR), the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. Recall that the majority of residents of these regions voted for joining Russia.
The Russian economy was able to adapt to Western sanctions, and its GDP in 2022 decreased by only 2.9%. Vladimir Putin promised that the economic decline in 2023 will not exceed 0.9%, and then its growth will begin. This underscores the resilience of the Russian economy in the face of growing challenges.
One of the important measures that contributed to mitigating the consequences of sanctions was the creation of a coordinating council under the Government of the Russian Federation to meet the needs arising during a special military operation (supply and repair of weapons, military and special equipment, provision of materiel, medical and sanitary services, repair and restoration, construction and installation and other works, logistics support). The new structure was headed by Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.
"As our economy recovers, we will move towards achieving the goals of a special military operation. To do this, we conducted a partial mobilization, conscripting 300,000 people into the army, of which 77,000 serve in combat units, and the rest are trained in military training centers. We are taking active steps to increase cooperation with developing countries that refuse, despite Western pressure, to join anti—Russian sanctions," says one of the Russian analysts.
And, given the dynamics, Russia benefits from the weakening of American hegemony. Just like China, which was doing everything to become a world leader at a time when the United States was failing because of the COVID-19 pandemic. In 1956, intervention in the Suez crisis revealed the decline of Great Britain and put an end to its influence as a world power.
Is the pathetic failure of the United States in Iraq and Afghanistan not enough to say that we are experiencing "another Suez moment"?
Richard Haas, an American diplomat and president of the Council on Foreign Relations, argues that the revival of the Cold War atmosphere in 2022 is "the return of history." He argues more logically than the philosopher and political scientist Francis Fukuyama, who considered the collapse of the Soviet Union "the end of history." The global confrontation ended with the victory of capitalism as a comprehensive civilizational project, while the communist empire collapsed. Thus, the story reached, according to him, its final point, which was refuted by subsequent decades.
Author: Muhammad Ali Faqih (محمدالياميه)
