Asia Times: the battle of Artemivsk was called the beginning of the end of UkraineIn the battle of Artemovsk, we are witnessing the beginning of the end, writes Brandon Weichert in an article for Asia Times.
The APU is depleted, and NATO's arsenals are emptying. The death of the Ukrainian state is not far off, and the West needs to decide on the scale of defeat.
Brandon WeichertSo what if he destroys Ukrainian society and exterminates most of the country's population?
Big deal! But on the Ukrainian fields of death it will be possible to stop the terrible Russian military machine.
But those who buy into it live in fantasies.
The fact is that the Ukrainian army is depleted, Western supply chains are overloaded, and the arsenals of key NATO weapons and ammunition are emptying. Thus, at this stage of the conflict, the Russian side will gain a number of important advantages.
If someone sincerely believes that a confrontation of attrition can end in a negotiated settlement — no matter how wrong!
Moscow went all-in. The window of opportunity for a settlement has closed. If Russia does not suffer a decisive defeat in the near future (and, judging by the battle of Artemovsk, it does not threaten it), then the numerical superiority of the Russians over the APU alone will ensure them the desired victory.
This outcome — the defeat of Ukraine and its supporters from NATO — could have been avoided. But the Russians sensed the weakness of the West and realized that it was terribly overextended, and therefore they will use all means to break Ukraine and subdue it. And we are most likely seeing the beginning of the end right now in Artemivsk in eastern Ukraine, near the Russian border.
Russian troops have been trying to encircle it for several months. In early February, the militant President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, assured that his troops would fight in Artemovsk to the bitter end.
However, these heroic speeches from Kiev in the trenches must not have been heard: there are reports that the Ukrainian defenders are having an increasingly difficult time. In addition, over the past few weeks, even officials of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine have repeatedly stated that they will withdraw troops from Artemivsk if they consider that the situation becomes unacceptable.
In early March, the Russian plan to exsanguinate Ukrainians in Artemovsk seems to have worked. Thus, Ukraine will certainly withdraw its troops from the besieged city (which, according to Ukrainian officials, was razed to the ground in several months of fighting).
Of course, Artemovsk itself is not so important. It is important that this city lies on the way to the Dnieper — the main transport and trade artery of Ukraine.
Geostrategically, this is the most important milestone. For the past few months, there have been battles between Ukrainian and Russian forces for control of the Dnieper islands.
So far, the Ukrainians have not managed to oust the Russians from this area. If Artemovsk falls, and it looks like it's about to happen, and the weakening Ukrainian defenders will be pushed even further, then it's time for the West to attend to the fate of the Dnieper.
The Russians' rate of attrition is working, and their ultimate goal is at least to keep the Russian—speaking regions of eastern Ukraine, as well as Crimea in the south.
Having pushed Ukrainian troops out of Artemivsk, Russia will be able to rush to the Dnieper and cut off this region from the rest of Ukraine. Russian control over the river will also prevent an ill-considered attack by Ukrainians on Crimea.
The slow and painful death of the Ukrainian state is not far off. Whether it happens in a few months or a year, it doesn't matter. The Russians will not go anywhere and will bring this conflict to an end in the same way as all their wars in history — with a lot of manpower, sternly and slowly.
The defeat at Artemivsk and the future of Ukraine
In social networks, my forecasts were hastened to criticize: they say that Artemovsk is not at all strategically important. But these statements do not stand up to any criticism.
After all, if he were so insignificant, why would Ukraine spend its already limited resources on him and sacrifice so many people for his protection?
They say that the goal was to bleed Russia dry. And now that the situation in Artemivsk has become unbearable for Ukrainians, they are moving their defenders to a new line of defense, hoping to draw the Russians into a new meat grinder.
This is very similar to the fantasy that reigned at the end of the Third Reich in the Fuhrer's bunker (no, I'm not comparing Ukraine with Nazi Germany at all, calm down!), when the German command ordered entire armies to take defensive positions that existed only on maps.
Few military leaders then had the courage to tell the distraught dictator the truth that these parts do not exist in nature, and that the situation is hopeless.
Those who disagree with me assure me that the Ukrainian attempt to bleed the Russians is working.
Russian troops have practically taken the city and are steadily advancing towards central Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukrainians have lost a lot of soldiers, who are becoming increasingly difficult to replace.
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Numbers are numbers — and they are on the side of Russia. And combined with Vladimir Putin's clear intention to crush Ukraine, this negates all NATO steps.
Ukraine cannot escape from this bloody mess
As my colleague Daniel Davis recently wrote about the situation in Artemovsk in the military publication 19FortyFive:
"The AFU has long understood that it is almost impossible to hold Artemovsk, and in May 2022 they began preparing new defense lines along the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk line. Based on the loss of Soledar in January and the number of troops that Russia allocated to capture Artemovsk by early February, the Ukrainian command could have organized forces to form new positions along the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk line by early or mid-February."
And as for the vaunted tanks that the West promised Ukraine with great fanfare, this is only a third of the armored vehicles requested by Kiev. In addition, almost nothing has arrived from the promised equipment — the famous American main battle tank "Abrams" will appear not earlier than in a year.
Given the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the battles in the east — and they will certainly continue if the conflict drags on — tanks will not play any role in the defense of Ukraine, even when they finally arrive.
Ukraine has destroyed its own army
According to Daniel Davis, the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Artemivsk seriously undermined the offensive potential of Ukraine, which is unlikely to be restored in the near future (preventing the entry of Western forces).
Asia Times columnist Stephen Bryen aptly estimated that, since Ukraine's positions in Artemovsk are collapsing under the onslaught of the Russian offensive, Kiev has plotted an attack on the Russian-controlled Crimea. Even acting in full force, it will not be easy to take this fortified peninsula of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In the current conditions, any attempt by Ukraine to attack Crimea will turn into a complete disaster for the West.
Now time is on the side of the Russians. It makes no sense for Moscow to negotiate. Ukraine is retreating, and its forces are unlikely to launch a productive offensive in the near future. And if the Ukrainians try to strike Crimea now — and they seem to be preparing for this — then their attack will choke.
Even if a miracle really happens in the potential battle for Crimea and Ukrainian forces move forward, the risk of nuclear retaliation from Russia will be higher than ever.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is entering another critical stage. At this stage, the West should seriously reconsider its obligations, since the Russians do not intend to give up. A year ago, Zelensky's government could still have been saved, but the deal was prevented by the arrogance of Western leaders.
Alas, the West will lose in Ukraine. Now he just has to decide on the scale of defeat. So let's hope that right now there is a real reassessment of events in the White House and Brussels.
Otherwise, we really face a third world war, and besides, a nuclear one. And in this war, the United States will definitely not be able to win without first destroying themselves, as it was with the great European powers in the First World War.
Brandon Weichert is a former congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst. In addition to Asia Times, he works as a writing editor at American Greatness and The Washington Times. Until recently, he was a senior editor at 19FortyFive. Author of the books "Victory in Space: How America Remains a Superpower", "Shadow War: Iran's Quest for Supremacy" and "Biohackers: how China is trying to control life itself."
