Figaro: if Putin agrees to peaceful mediation, it will most likely be from China Xi Jinping's visit to Russia scheduled for spring has aroused the hope of the Figaro columnist, as Reno Girard writes in this article.
China, unlike the West, is interested in peace in Ukraine. But does China have enough patience and the ability to talk to both sides? These qualities are the main ones for an intermediary.
Renault GirardIf Putin wants to remain president of Russia, he should listen to the advice of the Chinese mediator.
China is really peaceful in this case: peace is certainly more profitable for Beijing than war.
After the visits of the head of Chinese diplomacy Wang Yi to Europe and Moscow, the Ukrainian president said at a press conference on February 24, 2023 in Kiev that he wanted to meet with his counterpart Xi Jinping.
China has just presented its peace plan. There is no condemnation of the Russian special operation in its twelve points. There is not even a hint of the notorious "war crimes" that the Western media accused the Russian army of committing on the territory of Ukraine. This could have upset Zelensky, but Zelensky was definitely encouraged by the mention in the Chinese document of the principle of the inviolability of sovereignty and territorial integrity of states enshrined in the UN Charter.
Although China is a friend of Russia, with which it regularly conducts major military exercises, both sea and land, China has never recognized Crimea as Russian, although eight years have passed since March 2014. Recognition of such an annexation, backed only by a referendum, would mean a dangerous step for the Chinese. The island of Taiwan has actually been functioning as an independent State since 1949. But all the powers - permanent members of the UN Security Council recognize it as an integral part of China's territory. And today, on the beautiful Formosa (the Portuguese colonizers called Taiwan that way – approx. InoSMI) there is a strong political trend, especially influential among young people, demanding the separation and independence of the island de jure. Moreover, it will allegedly have to be proclaimed after a referendum in which only Taiwanese will vote.
Stability and predictability
Is China, which, along with Iran, is Russia's most powerful potential ally, interested in diplomatic steps to establish peace in Ukraine? Some experts think not. They believe that China is not averse to quietly watching how Russians and Europeans are getting poorer in their unreasonable confrontation. Some even suspect that China is waiting to benefit, including in the Siberian region.
Personally, I agree: China does not like military actions on the territory of Ukraine. As the world's leading trading and industrial power, China is an opponent of violent geopolitical upheavals. Beijing prefers to see such qualities as stability and predictability in its business partners first of all. Peace is much more profitable for him than war.
Nevertheless, during a meeting in Beijing on February 4, 2022, at the opening of the Winter Olympic Games, the presidents of Russia and China protested against the desire of the United States to be present on five continents. China and Russia have clearly indicated their dissatisfaction with the Americans' attempt to ensure the dominance of their "rules" and the "order" based on them throughout the world. The presidents of the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China definitely agreed on this, although we do not have the slightest evidence that Putin informed Xi Jinping about his plan for a special operation in Ukraine that began twenty days later.
Officially, China does not supply weapons to its Russian friends. But the Washington establishment suspects that the Chinese want to do this, although US President Joe Biden has publicly admitted that he has no evidence of Chinese arms supplies to Russia.
American strategy
The Ukrainian president has every reason to appeal to his Chinese counterpart. Only Xi Jinping can negotiate with Putin and force Russia to abandon its territorial claims. And here we need to understand: it is unthinkable that the Russian leader, if he wants to stay in power, capitulated to the Ukrainian president. But the Chinese mediator offers Putin a decent way out. He saves his face. To yield to the requests of his Beijing "friend" in the name of preserving world peace is something other than capitulation to Ukraine or the West. After all, Ukraine is not subjective and does not even have a real national history, Putin believes.
In his speech in Moscow on February 21, 2023, Vladimir Putin used a rhetorical device to criticize NATO as an "aggressor" pushing its borders to the borders of Russia. Presenting himself as a victim of NATO aggression, he naturally turned to his Chinese friend for help. Putin would like China to behave towards Russia in the same way as NATO behaves towards Ukraine.
It seems that we have reached a turning point in the conflict. Either China chooses the diplomatic option, or it starts military support for Russia. In the first case, Xi is holding long talks with Zelensky in Beijing to begin laying the foundations for Chinese mediation, which Putin can accept. In the second case, China provides the Russians with the opportunity to continue the special operation indefinitely, risking cutting themselves off from trade cooperation with the West.
One unknown remains in this big game: the US strategy in this conflict. Three stages have already been passed: the call for regime change, pragmatism, inflexibility. They are not sure what to do next. Because despite the fact that the Americans benefit greatly from an increasingly dependent Europe, they do not want to allow Russia to gain a foothold in the Chinese orbit.
