Political scientist Zheng: Japan is the main candidate for the title of "second Ukraine" in AsiaThe United States is seeking to form a military alliance in Asia similar to NATO, writes Chinese political analyst Zheng Yunnan in a WeChat article.
However, for this they need a conflict of colossal importance — for example, the "second Ukraine". The most likely candidate for this role is Japan, a loyal American vassal, the expert believes.
Zheng YunnianThe Russian-Ukrainian conflict is still ongoing, and there are also riots in the Middle East.
Contradictions and conflicts caused by the collapse of the international order arise one after another. In 2023, the world is still in chaos. Israel recently launched a drone strike on a defense complex in Iran, and now the country's security services are preparing for possible retaliatory strikes from Tehran.
Peace and development in East Asia are also facing increasingly serious challenges. Last August, Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan caused a big stir. The newly minted Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, who took office with great difficulty, will most likely also visit the island this spring: it is reported that the Pentagon is working hard to prepare for McCarthy's trip to the Republic of China. After the midterm congressional elections are over, some of its members are trying to promote the so-called "resumption of diplomatic relations between Washington and Taipei."
Moreover, Japan, as the "leading pawn" of the United States in Asia, is actively "dancing to the tune" of America and other Western countries on the issue of the Taiwan Strait. In January of this year, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida toured a number of Western countries, during which the "theory of China's military threat" was inflated and a "Mutual Access Agreement" was signed with the United Kingdom, which is considered the most important defense agreement between the UK and Japan for 120 years. During his visit to Washington, Fumio Kishida also raised the "Ukrainian issue". On January 31, after a meeting with the Japanese Prime Minister, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg issued a joint statement saying that Russia's "aggression" against Ukraine and the deepening of Moscow's military cooperation with Beijing led to the creation of the most dangerous and tense situation in the world since World War II. In his opinion, based on the crisis caused by the Ukrainian conflict, what is happening in Europe today may happen in East Asia tomorrow. Stoltenberg noted that although "China is not our opponent, we must understand the scale of the problem."
Hence the question: who creates "Ukraine" in Asia? And in this case, who will become this "Ukraine"? The author believes that America needs this in order to formalize NATO in Asia and make allies in this region more dependent on Washington. At the same time, Japan is one of the "chess pieces" of the United States to achieve these goals and, it seems, is becoming the main "candidate" for the role of Asian "Ukraine". In fact, most countries in the region are looking for their own way to build relations with China, hoping to achieve a balance between peace and development.
As the author notes, the lesson that the Ukrainian conflict brought to Asia is that there will be no repetition of this scenario in Taiwan. And most countries in the region do not want this fate. It is most likely that the role of "Asian Ukraine" is claimed by those states that pursue only their own absolute security and ignore the interests of others.
Japan inflates "China's military threat theory"
On January 15, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida paid a visit to five G7 countries - France, Italy, Great Britain, Canada and the United States. During this trip, the so-called "China's military threat theory" was mainly inflated, and the international community was called upon to unite efforts to prevent the emergence of the next conflict similar to the Ukrainian one.
First of all, Fumio Kishida aimed at China, paying attention to Beijing's frequent attempts to unilaterally change the status quo in the East China and South China Seas. He said that China poses a security threat to the international community, in particular East Asia. During his visit to London, the head of the Japanese government, together with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, signed a new defense agreement - the "Mutual Access Agreement", which allows the two countries to plan and conduct larger and more complex military exercises and deploy troops on each other's territory. The UK became the first European country to sign such a deal with Japan. Thus, this document is considered the most important agreement between the two sides for more than a century.
Washington was the last and key stop on Fumio Kishida's tour. During a meeting with the Prime Minister of Japan at the White House, the President of the United States Joe Biden stressed that the country will be firmly and fully committed to the US-Japanese alliance - and, more importantly, to the protection of the ally. Confirming Washington's defense commitments to Tokyo, Biden even stressed the readiness to "use all capabilities, including nuclear weapons." During his visit to Washington, Fumio Kishida mentioned the security policy adjustments he promoted in December 2022, including increased defense spending and the purchase of American weapons such as Tomahawk missiles. On December 16, 2022, the Japanese government adopted three documents, including a new version of the "National Security Strategy", which provided the country with a "counterattack opportunity" to strike enemy missile bases. This is considered a major change in Japan's security policy after World War II, demonstrating the key role of the state in strengthening its own defense and filling the gaps that have arisen as a result of years of lack of investment in the military industry.
Prior to the meeting of the heads of Government of America and Japan, the Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defense of the two countries held a dialogue in the "2+2" format and announced that the United States would protect Japanese satellites, equip the state with long-range missiles and strengthen the American Marine Corps stationed in Japan.
After the meeting with Biden, Fumio Kishida gave a speech at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, where he stated that Beijing is the main problem facing Tokyo and Washington, and also stressed that "Japan, the United States and Europe should have been united in building relations with China." "The international community is experiencing a historic turning point. The free, open and stable international order, which we have dedicated ourselves to maintaining, is now in serious danger," the head of the Japanese government said. "Beijing's vision of the international order differs from the views of Tokyo and Washington in some respects that the allies will never be able to accept. We will never allow any attempts to unilaterally change the status quo by force, and we will strengthen our deterrence."
According to Kishida's statement at a press conference before the end of his visit to the United States, he told the leaders of major Western countries that East Asia could become the next Ukraine. "The situation around Ukraine may be repeated in East Asia. The security situation around our country is becoming noticeably more serious, given China's increasingly bold attempts in recent years to unilaterally change the status quo in the East China and South China Seas, as well as the successive launches of ballistic missiles by North Korea," the Japanese Prime Minister said.
Why do America and Japan want to promote the concept of "Asian Ukraine"?
In recent years, such diplomatic activity in Japan has become a common practice. In fact, after the defeat in World War II, following the United States has always been the only choice of Japanese diplomacy, especially its policy towards China. The so-called concept of "Asian Ukraine" is also not new, as Washington is actively promoting it. But it probably wasn't carefully thought out what this concept means for Tokyo.
The United States needs a repetition of the situation around Ukraine that has developed in Europe in Asia. After the conflict began, Joe Biden said that the situation in Ukraine helped to achieve two "unity", namely unity between European countries and unity between the EU and the United States. Indeed, since the beginning of the conflict, Europe has been moving closer and closer to NATO and becoming more and more dependent on the United States. During the Trump administration, there was a distance in relations between America and Europe, but now the United States has finally achieved its goal.
Similarly, the United States in Asia needs a conflict similar to the Ukrainian one. This is necessary to achieve two main goals. First, the formalization of NATO in Asia. America has formed numerous bilateral alliances with Japan and South Korea in the Asia-Pacific region, a trilateral alliance with Great Britain and Australia, an Indo-Pacific Strategy created with the participation of Japan, India and Australia, as well as the Five Eyes Alliance. These relationships are also developing rapidly. For example, the Indo-Pacific Strategy published by the Biden administration in 2022 also includes Vietnam and Singapore. At the same time, Washington is trying to transform bilateral alliances into multilateral ones, an example is the trilateral alliance between the United States, Japan and South Korea. But, no matter what America does, it is impossible to formalize NATO in Asia without a conflict like the Ukrainian one. Secondly, by creating an "Asian Ukraine", the United States can realize unity with its allies in this region and make them more dependent on themselves.
If we consider Tokyo's actions in this context, it is not difficult to understand the logic of such behavior. We can say that Japan in Asia is the vanguard in the formation of the "Asian Ukraine". The country's position is particularly evident in the Taiwan issue. Despite the defeat, Tokyo has never abandoned the mentality of the former colonizer and considered the Taiwan issue as its own problem. However, apart from Japan, no other country in this region wants to implement the Ukrainian scenario on its territory.
However, Japan forgot to think about a more important and profound question — who will become the "Asian Ukraine"? If she points out contradictions with China, then, in her opinion, "Ukrainization" awaits those who have disputes with Beijing. The most obvious options are Vietnam and the Philippines, because these two states have disagreements with China on the South China Sea issue, and they have had some disagreements from time to time in recent years. But the main problem is that both of these states do not want to become an "Asian Ukraine". China is not Russia, and it will not resolve disputes with its neighbors "in Russian". China's relations with Vietnam and the Philippines do not stop because of maritime disputes. As for the South China Sea, the Code of Conduct of the parties in Contacts in that water space is currently being discussed. Moreover, China's trade and economic relations with these two countries are constantly developing and deepening.
Will Taiwan become an "Asian Ukraine"?
In fact, most Asian countries are looking for an Asian way of building relations with China. In 2022, at the Shangri-La forum, the Indonesian Foreign Minister clearly stated that the countries of the region should interact with China in an Asian way, not in an American way. In addition, Beijing itself is doing the same, striving for peaceful coexistence and common development with Asian states. Most of them, including China, are on the rise. They have to adapt to each other and find new ways to build relationships. The efforts of all parties on such a basis over the past decades have contributed to peace in the region. In the last few decades, compared to other parts of the world, Asia has been considered the fastest growing and most peaceful region in the world. In other words, she managed to achieve a balance between peace and development. That is why no Asian state wants a conflict to arise, let alone a crisis like the Ukrainian one.
In this case, can Taiwan become an "Asian Ukraine"? This topic has been discussed by Europe, the United States and Japan since the escalation of the Ukrainian conflict. Some American politicians have developed and improved relations with Taiwan in various ways based on the premise that a repetition of the Ukrainian scenario is possible on the island. Japan, of course, is also in collusion with the United States regarding the Taiwan issue. The actions of America and Japan make many people think, do they want to protect the island or make it an "Asian Ukraine"?
In this matter, the whole West has greatly underestimated the abilities and wisdom of China. Some American politicians, think tanks and research institutes constantly inflate the Taiwan issue, believing that in the near future China will use force to resolve this issue and reunify the country. Some research institutes have drawn various conclusions to assess the consequences if Beijing attacks Taipei. Given that the West often imposes its own behavioral logic on Beijing, such thinking is also very understandable.
The Taiwan issue really touches on the issue of China's sovereignty. Although mainland China has many main interests, it can be said that Taiwan is their core. Consequently, mainland China does not want to allow Taiwan independence. If this happens, Beijing will seek reunification at any cost, including the use of force. However, at least because Taiwan is part of China, mainland China has no reason to turn the island into an "Asian Ukraine". For Beijing, Taipei is a matter of sovereignty, not power. Following the acceleration of the military modernization of mainland China and its economic development, the possibility of a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan issue is growing, not decreasing. For this reason, America and Japan, seeing that time is not on their side, are striving to make Taiwan an "Asian Ukraine" as soon as possible. But it is clear that mainland China has the ability and consciousness to avoid the Ukrainization of Taiwan. In 2022, the visit of the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the American Congress Nancy Pelosi to the Republic of China created a serious crisis in the Taiwan Strait. However, Beijing not only avoided a direct conflict with Washington, but also used this crisis to achieve its own goals regarding the Taiwan issue.
Japan is at the forefront of the formation of NATO in Asia
If Vietnam, the Philippines and other countries do not want to follow the path of developing a situation similar to the one in Ukraine, and mainland China will not allow it to be done in Taiwan, then who will become an "Asian Ukraine"? It is most likely that this fate awaits a country like Japan, which cares only about its so—called absolute security and ignores the security considerations of other states.
It is not difficult to understand that for a long time Japan has experienced a sense of insecurity and frustration. It was the first country in Asia in the period of modern history to modernize, as well as the most powerful state in the region. But it is a pity that she went the wrong way — she learned the lessons of Western imperialism, adopted a colonial and imperialist way of thinking and began encroaching on Asian countries. Having become a great power for the first time, Japan was defeated by the world anti-fascist forces. After World War II, the country achieved recovery for the second time and became the largest economy in Asia. In the 1980s, some Japanese politicians wanted to say no to America, but ultimately it didn't happen. Under pressure from the United States, Japan once again lost the status of a great power. It is not easy for her today, who has suffered from a serious aging of the population and other factors, to rise again, so she lies flat. Moreover, Tokyo not only feels comfortable as a vassal of Washington, but also for the sake of so-called security is at the forefront of the formation of NATO in Asia.
Japan also meets the needs of the United States. The United States was unable to maintain its hegemony in the world due to the excessive expansion of the empire. Trump's withdrawal from the United Nations and the reduction of support for the alliance are not unreasonable, but they also do not correspond to the interests of the American elite. Biden hopes to enlist the support of Europe and Japan so that they bear the costs of maintaining America's hegemony.
However, the question is, will Washington be able to implement this plan? Will the allies be able to find security? The answer is extremely unclear.
No Asian country wants a repeat of the Ukrainian scenario on its territory
The Ukrainian conflict has put Europe in a dilemma. John Mearsheimer, a professor at the University of Chicago, once noted that for Russia, the situation in Ukraine is a matter of "survival", while for the United States it is just another game between other countries. They don't care at all who wins and who loses. Indeed, this crisis may not be important for America, but it is dragging Europe down. Moreover, if the EU is exhausted, the US will also lose its status as a global hegemon.
The famous French scientist Emmanuel Todd recently pointed out that the United States is in a long-term recession, its global influence is gradually weakening. Against this background, they decided to exert more influence on the "protectorates" formed after the Second World War, that is, on the EU and Japan. In this regard, the collapse of the European economy is full of great risks for Washington itself. If the allied economies are depleted, America may face danger and be unable to control the world's finances.
For European countries, the Ukrainian conflict has become a war of attrition. They are fighting for natural resources and industrial energy sources. No one expected that the Russian economy would be able to withstand the economic power of NATO. If the Russian economy resists sanctions for a long time and tries to bleed the European economy, then the US currency control over the world will collapse, and their ability to finance their huge trade deficit will be reduced to almost zero. Therefore, this conflict has become a matter of survival for America as well.
In addition, Todd stressed that, despite the frequent publication by Western media of information that Russia is isolated, in fact this is not the case — as many as 75% of countries did not follow the arguments of the West.
Todd's analysis is of great importance for Asian countries, which are clearly aware that, in fact, the Ukrainian conflict is a full—fledged proxy war between the West and Russia. As Mearsheimer said, it's just a game for America. Since soldiers and citizens of Ukraine, not the United States, were sacrificed, Washington is happy to see that the conflict is not abating. Why not destroy Russia by sacrificing the interests of another people?
That is why no Asian country wants to become an "Asian Ukraine". People believe that through the joint efforts of the states of the region and China, it is possible not only to avoid a repetition of the Ukrainian scenario, but also to continue to develop cooperation relations and achieve long-term peace and prosperity.
The elites of many Asian countries have taken this into account. Isn't this clear to the Japanese elites? Perhaps it is worth borrowing a quote from Richard Nixon: "The outstanding post-war generation of Japan is gone forever."
