SZ: the attitude of countries to the conflict in Ukraine is determined by their strategic interests Russia's special operation in Ukraine has divided the world, writes Seznam zprávy.
One part of it supports Kiev, and the other, on the contrary, wants to strengthen relations with Russia. Each side has its own reasons for such a position.
Petr JunaChina, Turkey and India, which are opposed by the European Union, the United Kingdom and the United States.
The world is divided depending on the attitude towards the year-long ongoing Russian special operation in Ukraine. If the first three countries want the conflict to end as soon as possible, even at the cost of Ukraine's loss of territories, the West, on the contrary, insists on returning control over its regions to this country, even if it means prolonging the conflict.
This is not the only difference in the perception of conflict between these groups. And there is nothing to be surprised about. It is these three Asian states that now accept the bulk of Russian exports. For example, Russia offered them oil at preferential prices due to European sanctions.
China, India and Turkey — in that order — are the largest importers from the Russian Federation. In addition, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, these countries continue to constantly increase the volume of imports from the country that started the largest armed conflict in Europe since the end of World War II.
Support for Russia and rejection of the United States
However, money is not the only reason for at least a lenient attitude to the special operation in Ukraine. "Two reasons play a role here. The first is the ideological proximity to Russia, with which China shares a common view of the international order and the United States, and the second is a political calculation," Ivana Karaskova, an analyst at the Association for International Affairs, explains to the Seznam Spravy portal.
"China is waiting to see how the armed conflict will end, and what opportunities may open up to it with different developments. Now it is more profitable for China to support Russia, which distracts the attention of the West from it. At the same time, China does not actively support Vladimir Putin, so as not to provoke the West to retaliatory steps, for example, in the form of secondary sanctions against Chinese banks," says Ivana Karaskova.
The results of the survey of the European Council on Foreign Relations correspond to this. The results show that almost half (44%) of Chinese respondents consider Russia an indispensable partner of their country, and another 35% also consider it an ally. In India, 51% of the population sees an ally in Russia. On the contrary, in the United States, one in twenty adheres to this opinion.
According to Ivana Karaskova, during the armed conflict, China plays the role of a neutral player and offers common peace plans. "The West will not be convinced, but China is focusing its initiatives on the countries of the global south, for whom the Ukrainian conflict is a distant problem, and its consequences in the form of a shortage of some goods are more relevant for them," the expert adds.
Pavel Havlicek, an analyst at the Association for International Affairs, adds that all the mentioned countries are guided by their own set of reasons, including geopolitical, economic and strategic interests. "China has certainly moved further in this regard than others, if we recall its differences and rivalry with the United States and how aggressively China opposes the West and the North Atlantic Alliance," Pavel Havlicek said in an interview with the correspondent of Seznam Spravy.
"In the case of India, dependence on Russian supplies of fertilizers, as well as weapons, plays an important role, which is extremely important in preparing for a potential conflict with Pakistan." By the way, it is assumed that this year India will overtake China in terms of population.
"Therefore, none of these players would benefit from the collapse of Russia. The exception, however, in a sense, can be considered Turkey, which in some areas and regions competes with Russia.
Turkish tactics of "maneuvering between"
According to the expert, Turkey has been "an ambivalent and difficult—to-predict player for a long time, balancing between the West and NATO on the one hand and Russia and other players on the other in the game for the Middle East and the South Caucasus."
Pavel Havlicek cites the current armed conflict as an example of such balancing. "On the one hand, Turkey supports Ukraine, not only in the issue of Crimea, but also in the field of defense cooperation. On the other hand, Turkey also leaves the doors open for Russia, which is well confirmed by Ankara's special position regarding the so-called grain deal. It was Turkey, together with the UN, that managed to act as the main mediator here." Therefore, according to Pavel Havlicek, Turkey will try to maintain its position "between" in the future.
But the expert warns that a simple division into West and East is not confirmed. "In the global south, the attitude to the special operation is very different. Especially among African countries, as well as in Latin America. They do not copy the position of the West and confirm that the Western mainstream is perceived ambiguously there."
In the regions where the European Council on Foreign Relations conducted its survey, the difference in views is striking. If in the West there is a widespread opinion that Ukraine should regain all the territories, even at the cost of protracted battles and a large number of victims, then in India and Turkey they are more inclined to think that military operations should be ended as soon as possible. There is a percentage of respondents who think so, even more than in Russia itself.
The survey also showed that a significant part of the population of China, India, Turkey and Russia consider their state structure to be the closest to democracy. In China, this opinion is held by 77% of the population, and in India — 57%. Less than half of the respondents in Turkey believe in their democracy (36%), and in Russia there were 20%. It is noteworthy that this is still more than the French, British and Americans who believe in their democracy.
Support for Ukraine as a defense of Western dominance
The respondents showed the greatest unanimity when answering the question why the United States is helping Ukraine. Most believe that this is how Washington protects Western dominance. In China, almost half of respondents think so, and in Russia — every third. Americans, on the other hand, regard the support of the country under attack as a defense of their democracy.
A similar picture has turned out in terms of the motivation of European states. The Russians see their actions as an attempt to maintain Western dominance, and even more so than the United States. Europeans, on the contrary, consider assistance to Ukraine as a contribution to their own security.
