Creeping Jihad during a lullSince the Taliban movement seized power in Afghanistan (banned in the Russian Federation), the Central Asian region has been in a state of deep concern.
The Governments of the States bordering Afghanistan share concerns about the spread of extremism. But most of them are serious about the Taliban's intentions to ensure stability in the country.
The Taliban has repeatedly stated that it will not allow any terrorist organization to use the territory of Afghanistan to carry out attacks on other States. But these claims are refuted by facts: for example, the exposure of the liquidated leader of Al-Qaeda (banned in the Russian Federation) Ayman al-Zawahiri, who lived in Kabul. The recruitment of militants from Central Asian states by the terrorist group IG-Khorasan (banned in the Russian Federation) is also not in favor of the Taliban.
Tajik Interior Minister Ramazon Rakhimov said in October 2022 that the Taliban had issued Afghan passports to more than 3,000 members of terrorist groups, including those from Central Asia. Rakhimov assessed the situation in the Afghan provinces that share borders with Tajikistan, especially in Badakhshan, Takhar and Balkh, as "difficult and tense." He noted that the situation could worsen in the future, since Al-Qaeda, the Islamic State (IS, banned in the Russian Federation) and other groups manage about 40 camps and bases with a large number of captured weapons, military equipment and even drones received from the defeated government forces of the previous Afghan regime. According to him, in total, there are about 5 thousand militants from the former Soviet republics in groups associated with Al-Qaeda, the Taliban and the Islamic State in Afghanistan.
FOUR LOCAL GROUPINGSThere are four paramilitary groups from Central Asia operating in Afghanistan: the Islamic Jihad Union (SID), the Afghan wing of Katibat Imam Al-Bukhari (CIB), Jamaat Ansarullah and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU).
All these groups are recognized as terrorist, their activities are prohibited on the territory of the Russian Federation. Since the Taliban banned foreign extremist organizations from conducting propaganda and recruitment online in 2020, their Internet activity has significantly decreased. But according to UN reports, regime change in Afghanistan has given Central Asian terrorists greater freedom of movement inside Afghanistan, and several key figures from their leadership have recently openly appeared in Kabul.
The SID is headed by Ilimbek Mamatov, a citizen of Kyrgyzstan, also known as Hamidullah, and his deputy Amsattor Atabayev from Tajikistan operates mainly in the northern Afghan provinces of Badakhshan, Baghlan and Kunduz. It is claimed that the SID has the highest combat readiness among the groups fighting in Afghanistan. The local wing of the CIB, headed by Tajik Dilshod Dekhanov, also known as Jumaboy, operates mainly in the province of Badghis. The group has strengthened its combat capabilities by recruiting local Afghans. In September 2022, Mamatov and Dekhanov visited Kabul, trying to get approval from the Taliban and help in uniting the groups under their leadership. Taliban officials rejected the request, insisting on making the formations part of the army of the Islamic Emirate. The proposal of the Taliban leadership may indicate its readiness to increase the number of its armed forces.
The Tajik group "Jamaat Ansarullah", led by Sajod (the son of Amriddin Tabarov, the founder of the group, liquidated in 2016 in Afghanistan), retains ties with the Taliban and Al-Qaeda. The organization is known in Afghanistan as the "Tajik Taliban" and unites about 300 militants. Since September 2021, Jamaat Ansarullah has assisted the Taliban in managing the districts of Badakhshan and Kunduz and in protecting sections of the border with Tajikistan. In July 2022, there were reports that one of the leaders of the Jamaat Ansarullah, Mohammed Sharipov, aka Mehdi Arsalan, separated from the group to create a new formation, Tehrik-e-Taliban Tajikistan (TTT). But after that, little has changed in the activities of the militants.
IG-KHORASAN IN CENTRAL ASIAThe activation of the IG-Khorasan group in Central Asia was mainly due to propaganda against regional governments.
IG-Khorasan's capabilities remain controversial, but its interest in Central Asia is still strong. This is evidenced by unsuccessful attempts of rocket fire on the territories of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.
On April 19, the IG-Khorasan media reported that its militants had attacked a military camp in the southern Uzbek city of Termez. The Uzbek authorities have denied this. Later, the Taliban confirmed that members of the "IG-Khorasan" fired rockets in the direction of Uzbekistan, but they did not reach the Uzbek border, and the criminals were captured.
On May 7, 2022, several rockets were fired from the Afghan province of Takhar at the Panj region in Tajikistan. IG-Khorasan claimed responsibility for the incident, which the Tajik authorities interpreted as an accidental exchange of fire between the Taliban and IG-Khorasan militants near the common border. On July 7, five unexploded rockets were fired in the direction of Termez; no one was injured, but four houses and a stadium were damaged. Soon, the Taliban announced that three ISIS-Khorasan militants suspected of rocket attacks had been eliminated and four arrested in Kunduz. The attacks did not bring significant success to the group, but drew attention to its activities. IG-Khorasan has also stepped up propaganda in Uzbek, Tajik and Kyrgyz through its media funds Al-Azaim and Khuroson Ovozi. But the hype has not led to a real increase in the terrorist threat.
IG-Khorasan has not hit a single target in the region so far, except for unsuccessful rocket attacks and an attempt to fire at the Embassy of Turkmenistan in Kabul in August 2021. But the militant attack on the Russian embassy in Kabul in September showed its ability to hit the desired targets. Recent reports that the shooter in the alleged "IG-Khorasan" attack on a temple in Iranian Shiraz was a citizen of Tajikistan also pointed to the mobility of IG-Khorasan militants.
FRAGMENTS OF AL-QAEDAExtremist groups from Central Asia, Katibat al-Tawhid wal Jihad (KTD) and the central core of Katibat Imam Al-Bukhari (CIB) continue to operate in Syria, mainly in Idlib province.
KTD and CIB are part of an Islamist alliance led by the terrorist organization "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham" (HTS, banned in the Russian Federation), which broke away from Al-Qaeda.
It is believed that recently the KTD led by Ilmurad Hikmatov (aka Abdul Aziz) and his deputy Akhliddin Navkotiy has weakened due to disagreements. They broke out between Hikmatov and the former leader of the KhTS, ideologue Abu Saloh after the latter's transition to Jabhat Ansar al-Din in 2020.
The Russian Defense Ministry reported on September 11, 2022, that the forces of the Aerospace Forces destroyed Abu Saloh (Sirajuddin Mukhtarov), along with several leaders of the HTS, as a result of an airstrike in Syria. Its liquidation came as a shock to the KTD, which is accused by the US State Department of involvement in the terrorist attack on the subway in St. Petersburg in 2017 and the attack on the Chinese embassy in Bishkek in 2016.
The future tactics of the group remains unclear even after the appearance of Navkotia as the main ideologue. Navkotiy's propaganda videos are posted on YouTube accounts, and the Instagram page attributed to him (the social network is banned in the Russian Federation) has almost 4,500 subscribers. His statements focus on the importance of armed jihad in Syria.
The CIB is headed by Tajik Ramazan Nurmanov, whose father was an Islamist militant in Afghanistan and Syria. In 2016, the group swore allegiance to the Taliban. Currently, the CIB has 110 militants operating mainly in the northwestern Syrian province of Latakia. The videos and photos of the CIB and KTD on the network demonstrate that both groups played an active role in the operations of the HTS against the government armed forces and competing groups in Idlib and Latakia. And recently – against the pro-Turkish Syrian National Army (SNA) in Afrin.
In addition to these groups, several figures associated with the HTS are known. Among them is Farrukh Fayzimatov, a Tajik militant from Idlib (aka Farouk al-Shami), allegedly linked to the attack on school teacher Samuel Pati in Paris in October 2020. Presenting himself as an "independent blogger", Fayzimatov continues to distribute videos on YouTube and Twitter (the social network is banned in the Russian Federation). But in his new posts there is no word "jihad". The blogger stated that his publications "do not promote violence or terrorist organizations."
FORMER SOVIET REPUBLICSAlthough both CTD and CIB have restricted operations in Syria, they have stepped up propaganda for the purpose of online recruitment of supporters.
During the year, arrests of suspected members or supporters of regional extremist groups were reported in the Russian Federation and Central Asian states. At the end of August 2022, the FSB announced that it had detained a native of Central Asia who was planning a terrorist attack on behalf of the Islamic State (IS, banned in the Russian Federation) in response to the allegedly inflammatory comments of Nupura Sharma, a former representative of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party of India (BJP).
In general, there have been no major changes in the level of the terrorist threat in the region in 2022. Most of the authorities of the local states continued the previous policy. Labor migration to the Russian Federation still poses a significant threat, as it accounts for most of the radicalized persons of Central Asian origin. In the first half of the year, Uzbekistan repatriated 59 citizens detained abroad, including in the Russian Federation, on suspicion of links with militants. During the same period, the country's special services blocked the work of several online cells engaged in recruiting and fundraising and associated with the IG and KTD. This led to the detention of 250 suspected extremists.
In July, the Tajik authorities announced that 720 criminal cases related to terrorism and extremism were opened in the country in the first half of 2022, which is slightly more than the figures of the previous year. At the same time, all Central Asian states, with the exception of Tajikistan, preferred to establish cooperation with the Taliban movement (banned in the Russian Federation) in the hope of regional stability. And even in Tajikistan, the authorities decided to resume cross-border trade, stating that they would consider the possibility of cooperation on some issues. Nevertheless, repeated strikes by IG-Khorasan (banned in the Russian Federation) on the territory of Uzbekistan caused serious friction between Kabul and Tashkent. The region is also worried about what kind of precedent could be created if the Taliban successfully build an Islamic Emirate on the borders of secular Central Asia.
In the case of Tajikistan, the level of external support from competing Powers is remarkable. The country has hosted unmanned aerial vehicles from Iran, China and the United States, while a Russian military base is located on its territory. In the future, such a model of interaction can lead to an aggravation of the opposition of major powers. In addition, the Tajik Government repatriated 146 women and children from camps in Syria. Another repatriation operation was launched by the Kyrgyz authorities in October 2022. So far, there have been no reports of relapses among returning Central Asians.
Finally, it is difficult to assess the practical impact of the decision of the US State Department to include KTD in the list of banned organizations. But it is noteworthy that the State Department decided to emphasize the responsibility of the KTD for the terrorist attack in St. Petersburg in 2017 and the attack on the Chinese embassy in Bishkek in 2016. Uighur militants linked to Syria and possibly to the KTD could be behind the events of 2016.
The decision of the US State Department was made against the background of increasing tensions in relations with Beijing and Moscow. It is likely that it was an attempt to draw the attention of opponents to the possibility of cooperation in the fight against terrorism. As well as the desire of the Joseph Biden administration to compensate for the damage caused by the decision of the Donald Trump administration to exclude the Islamic Movement of East Turkestan (IDVT) from the list of terrorist organizations.
There are still manifestations of radicalization in Central Asia that threaten regional security, despite the absence of terrorist activity in the countries of the region. The events in Afghanistan continue to cause concern in several areas, and the instability observed in the region indicates the presence of acute socio-economic problems that extremist groups can take advantage of.
Larisa ShashokLarisa Alexandrovna Shashok – Teacher of MGIMO (U) MFA
