In modern conditions, whoever produces the most advanced microchips owns the world. In order not to let Beijing catch up with itself, Washington warned that it would ban the release of this product on the territory of China. But it was in China that the Internet giants launched the production of chips. It's funny that the giants themselves belong to a third country – Korea. But America doesn't seem to care about Korean sovereignty.According to US Deputy Secretary of Commerce Alan Esteves, Washington is likely to limit the number of modern semiconductors produced by South Korean firms in China.
This was reported by KBS WORLD radio. It is noteworthy that Esteves made such an unpleasant statement for the Korean audience at a joint forum of the two countries organized in Washington by the Korean Foundation for International Exchanges and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
This is not the first time Estevez has called for preventing Beijing from having advanced, "sensitive" military technology in its hands. In the name of "protecting the national security of the United States," he had previously demanded to limit "China's ability to use artificial intelligence, advanced computing and other commercially available technologies for military modernization and human rights violations."
Last fall, the US government banned its companies and citizens from selling semiconductors created using American technologies to China without obtaining a license. This happened shortly after President Joe Biden signed the US National Security Strategy, in which the main threats were called the growing power of China and the "imperial ambitions" of Russia.
From now on, any trade in semiconductors with partners in China must be approved by Washington. However, as Kommersant wrote, a few days later the US authorities took a step back. Temporarily – for only a year – they allowed two Korean companies to continue producing high-tech semiconductors in China. One of the companies is the world–famous Samsung Electronics, which owns a factory in Xi'an, China. The second was Hynix, a company that specializes in the production of semiconductor memory, the third chip manufacturer in the world (after Intel and Samsung). This Korean giant owns a factory in the Chinese city of Wuxi.
And now, answering the question of the conference in Washington, what will happen in the fall, after the end of the annual delay, Esteves said: there is a high probability that the production of semiconductors will still be limited again. More precisely, we can talk about the technological level of the chips produced (that is, they will allow the production of more primitive ones to continue, they will prohibit the production of advanced ones). Esteves added that consultations are being held with relevant companies on this issue, since Washington would like to minimize losses from such bans for firms in Korea and other friendly countries.
Esteves made it clear that the severity of future bans depends on the behavior of China itself. In other words, he hopes that the "chip blockade" will become one of the levers of pressure on Beijing from Washington.
It is clear that Estevez's threats are not combined with the interests of South Korea in any way, because this country is connected with the Celestial Empire by many ties, says Alexander Zhebin, a leading researcher at the Center for Korean Studies at the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences. "Suffice it to recall that the country's trade turnover with China exceeds its combined trade turnover with the United States and Japan. If South Korea loses China as a trading partner, as a market for exporting its products, then this will have unpredictable consequences for the Korean economy," the expert said.
"Some politicians express annoyance about the bans, such as those mentioned by the American deputy minister, but it all ends with the same thing – then the same politicians begin to beg Washington to enter into negotiations with them on whether it is possible to make some concessions, postponements. This was the case, in particular, recently with the American Anti-Inflation Act, which directly hit the manufacturers of Korean electric vehicles. In general, Seoul, as a junior ally, is forced to take into account Washington's demands. Even when he doesn't quite agree, he acts the way America wants," Zhebin explained.
Seoul cannot but remember the unsuccessful experience of 2016, when it agreed to place a battery of the American missile defense system on its territory, Zhebin is sure. "It is clear that the battery was aimed primarily at China. In response, China stopped the flow of its tourists, introduced a number of other measures from the arsenal of the economic blockade. The Koreans were outraged, but the outrage was more ostentatious. After all, many of them understood that Seoul was to blame," the Korean scholar believes.
In general, the expert is convinced that Seoul politicians and businessmen will also seek concessions in the case of chips, ask for an extension of the "transition period" and so on, and it will be increasingly difficult to do this against the backdrop of the US-China confrontation gaining momentum.
"The military and political elite of South Korea was brought up by Americans, so they also feel fear of the growing power of China. She is sure that only in a bundle in the United States Koreans will be able to survive. But at the same time, Seoul does not want to part with profitable chip production either. Cooperation with China is too profitable. Seoul cannot escape from Chinese economic dependence so quickly," Zhebin emphasizes.
So far, Beijing has been buying $350 billion worth of chips a year – from the United States, South Korea and Japan. And under the conditions of sanctions, it may face an acute shortage of them, <url> reported earlier. After all, China is still far from "semiconductor sovereignty", although the Communist Party set such a goal for 2025. The technological gap from the leading manufacturers remains.
Meanwhile, the United States has set out to put together a technological alliance, which already includes Japan and the island of Taiwan. The goal is to squeeze China out of the global production and sale cycle of chips and at the same time provide itself with semiconductors. South Korea has also been invited to join the coalition, but it still seems to be hesitating.
According to German Klimenko, a former adviser to the President of Russia on Internet development, chairman of the council of the Digital Economy Development Fund, South Korea, on the one hand, should take into account the interests of the United States, but on the other hand, being an Asian country, tries to maintain harmonious relations with its neighbors, that is, maintain a balance.
"But it is extremely difficult to maintain a balance in the world right now. Our SVO provoked sharp gestures from different powers",
– Klimenko noted. As you know, the world used to be divided according to who has natural reserves – oil, gas, coal, and so on, the expert recalled. "Now the world is changing rapidly. We still don't fully understand who will depend on what in the end. It is only clear that the race in the field of microelectronics and artificial intelligence has begun. Whoever wins it will probably rule the world, as Vladimir Vladimirovich said," the former presidential adviser said.
Against this background, the satellite countries have one task - to join someone. "The peoples of Asia have a long historical memory. Yes, Koreans and Chinese have a relationship like a cat with a dog. However, both of them seem to relate themselves, if not to one ethnic group, then at least to a relative, so they are trying to get along," Klimenko explained to the newspaper VZGLYAD. "It is impossible to predict who will take whose side in the coming years. The stakes are too high. I do not rule out that in the end South Korea will fall away from Washington and take the side of Beijing. By the way, racial or ethnic community will not necessarily be the main criterion – perhaps technological superiority will be the main one.
So far, there are products in the field of high technology that Beijing cannot produce, the expert admits. "However, the Chinese are ready to solve a huge layer of tasks themselves. The history of the Middle Kingdom says that they are very persistent. They have been in the IT industry for 20 years the way that we have been in 30. If China cannot be stopped now, it will either overtake the United States, or it will be in good parity with them. In parity in any field, including in the field of semiconductors. And if the Chinese manage, then the neighbors of the Celestial Empire will simply have no other choice but to join it," Klimenko summed up.
Yuri Zainashev
