CNN: the way to end the conflict in Ukraine is Kiev's rejection of Crimea and DonbassThe confrontation between Moscow and Kiev has reached an impasse, and the "help" of the West does not save Ukraine, but destroys it, writes analyst Fareed Zakaria in CNN.
The only way to end the conflict is Kiev's refusal to return Crimea and Donbass in exchange for membership in NATO and the EU, he believes.
Farid ZakariaA year after the beginning of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it became clear that neither side is strong enough to win, but also not so weak to ask for peace.
The confrontation has reached an impasse. After impressive successes at the front, the Ukrainian army has been unable to make serious advances for months. At the same time, Russian troops are entrenched in the occupied territories, and their further offensive is not yet bringing tangible results.
The numbers speak for themselves. According to an analysis by The Washington Post, at the beginning of the special operation in February 2022, Russia took control of 7% of the territory of Ukraine. Then it advanced in an easterly direction, and a month later Russian troops occupied 22% of the country's territory. After that, the Ukrainian army launched a counteroffensive, and by mid-November, the Kremlin had lost about a third of its successes. There have been no significant changes in the last three months. Both Russia and Ukraine are planning new actions, but major changes will require large-scale victories. In other words, Ukraine will have to return about twice as many territories as it managed last year, only to return the lands that were taken under control after the start of the special operation.
The Russian army has not yet achieved significant achievements in the conflict, but things are better now, especially in the retention of territories. It has also managed to stabilize the economy, which, according to the IMF forecasts, will show better results this year than the UK or Germany. Russia freely trades with such economic giants as China and India, as well as with its neighbors Turkey and Iran. Thanks to these and many other countries, with the exception of the advanced technology sector, it has access to all the goods and capital that it lost due to the sanctions regime. Now there is a huge world economy, which does not include the West, and Russia can move freely in these waters. The long-term costs of the conflict and the impact of Western sanctions are palpable, but they are working slowly. Such isolation rarely changes dictatorial policies — look at North Korea, Iran, Cuba and Venezuela.
And what are the next steps? In the short term, there is only one answer from the West and its allies — to provide Ukraine with more weapons and money. If they have decided to leave Putin with nothing in this conflict, then let them do everything possible to make it a reality. With almost every weapon system requested by Ukraine, the following pattern is observed: first indecision, then postponement and, finally, consent. So why not send more earlier? The next three months will be crucial, as the thaw begins, which will simplify the movement of troops.
Nevertheless, it is difficult to imagine a complete victory, as in the Second World War. Any war ends with negotiations, and this conflict is unlikely to be an exception. The task of the West is to help Ukraine achieve great success and reverse the situation on the battlefield in order to approach the negotiations from a strong position. Only crushing victories — like, for example, trying to cut off Crimea — can force Putin to sit down at the negotiating table.
Is there a way to stop the hostilities? On paper, yes. It is possible to imagine a ceasefire regime in which there is a return to the borders at the time of February 2022. Territories that were taken under control earlier, like Crimea in 2014, will be subject to international arbitration, including local referendums, which will be conducted by international groups, and not by the Russian government. In addition, Ukraine will receive security guarantees from NATO, although they will not apply to these disputed territories. This compromise — the rejection of the return of Crimea and parts of Donbass in exchange for actual membership in NATO and the EU — may interest Ukrainians, because they will achieve their long-standing goal of becoming part of the West. This may suit Russia as well: she will be able to claim that she managed to protect part of the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine.
Many believe that this conflict can end with an absolute victory for Kiev. I hope so too, but I doubt this possibility. In 2021, Russia was more than three times larger than Ukraine in population, almost 15 times larger in GDP, and spent 10 times more on its defense budget. Russians are known for having a high ability to endure pain in wartime (the Soviet Union lost 24 million people in World War II compared to 420 thousand in America). And if the Russian economy is in slow decline, then the Ukrainian economy has slipped into the abyss. GDP shrank by about 30% in 2022, and the government spends more than twice as much as it receives (thanks to Western aid).
More than 13 million Ukrainians have left their homes, about eight million of them have gone abroad. The conflict is taking place on Ukrainian soil, cities are bombed, factories are destroyed, people are destitute. If it continues for years, it is worth asking the question: are we allowing Ukraine to be destroyed in order to save it?
