People's Daily: NATO's expansion to the north promises Europe a new threat from RussiaThe accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO will exacerbate serious internal contradictions in the alliance: the more participants, the harder it is to resolve any issues.
Yes and Russia will not ignore such changes, the author of the article in the People's Daily believes. And this will add problems to Europe.
According to recent media reports, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf-Hjalmar Kristersson said that negotiations between Stockholm, Helsinki and Ankara on joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization will resume in March.
During the "NATO expansion to the north" that began in May 2022, numerous difficulties appeared, and there is no end to the political games between the parties. Experts note that Sweden and Finland, two neutral Nordic countries, have embarked on the path of joining NATO, which is one of the most important geopolitical changes in Europe after the aggravation of the Ukrainian crisis. However, the "Turkish dilemma" that arose during the "expansion to the north" reflects numerous contradictions between Turkey, Sweden and Finland, as well as within NATO, and creates hidden dangers for the future of the entire alliance.
Incessant difficulties
Recently, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken took turns visiting Turkey. In addition to helping earthquake victims and other issues, an important component of the visits was an attempt to persuade Ankara to "give the green light" to Sweden and Finland joining the alliance.
According to foreign media, after talks with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, Stoltenberg stressed that "Ankara needs to immediately abandon preventing Sweden and Finland from joining NATO." During his trip to Turkey, Blinken also stated that the United States strongly supports the two Nordic countries in joining the alliance as soon as possible and believes that they have already taken "concrete steps" to implement the memorandum signed with Turkey.
Faced with pressure from the United States and other NATO members, Turkey has not yet given up. Cavusoglu noted that "illegal activities such as terrorist financing, recruitment and propaganda are still supported in Sweden" and that Stockholm needs to take additional steps to dispel the doubts of the Turkish side. Cavusoglu reacted relatively calmly to Helsinki, adding that "Finland and Sweden's applications for NATO membership can be considered separately."
The attempt at the "northern expansion" of NATO has been going on for more than a year, and the North Atlantic Alliance has experienced numerous twists and turns, and the political game between the parties continues to this day.
In May 2022, Sweden and Finland applied to join NATO, which Turkey opposed. According to the charter, all 30 member states of the alliance must "unanimously approve" the request before NATO can accept new countries. To this end, the three sides held several rounds of negotiations, and in June 2022 signed a memorandum confirming that Ankara would agree to approve the application of Stockholm and Helsinki if they did not support the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), the Kurdish People's Self-Defense Forces (SNF) and the Gulen movement, as well as lift restrictions on the export of defense technicians to Turkey.
In January 2023, Finland lifted an almost three-year arms embargo on Turkey, which improved their bilateral ties to a certain extent. At the same time, relations between Stockholm and Ankara are increasingly tightening. On January 21, an ultra-right activist with dual citizenship of Denmark and Sweden publicly burned a Koran near the Turkish embassy in Sweden, insulting Islam and Muslim immigrants. On January 27, he burned the Koran again in front of a mosque in Copenhagen and the Turkish Embassy in Denmark. Ankara considered that Stockholm condones and patronizes anti-Turkish activists, and therefore postponed the trilateral negotiations indefinitely.
On the issue of joining NATO, Sweden and Finland are used to "cuddling up to each other to keep warm." According to the Deutsche Presse news agency, Swedish Prime Minister Kristersson recently stressed that Finland should not be allowed to join NATO before Sweden, otherwise their "close military cooperation will be greatly complicated." Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin expressed a similar point of view at the Munich Security Conference, saying that "the simultaneous accession of the two countries meets the interests of the alliance."
Currently, among the NATO member states, only Turkey and Hungary have not officially approved the entry of Sweden and Finland into the alliance. According to Reuters, the Hungarian parliament's agenda was originally supposed to hold a vote on the "admission" of the two countries in early March, but, according to the latest statement by the head of the office of the Prime Minister of the country, Gergei Guyash, parliamentarians may need more time to make a decision. The vote may be postponed until the end of March. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban recently said that Ankara's concerns should be taken into account, stressing that "if Turkey's demands are not met, NATO expansion may fail."
The interweaving of contradictions
"There are at least two categories of contradictions in the issue of NATO's "northern expansion"," said Zhao Ke, associate professor at the Institute of International Strategic Studies of the CPC Central Party School. Firstly, there are "innate" differences between Turkey, Sweden and Finland on the issue of combating terrorist organizations. Secondly, relations between Turkey and the United States show ups and downs. In addition, Ankara has been passive about joining the EU for a long time, various conflicts arise between it and the European members of NATO. "In such contradictory conditions, Turkey, as a NATO member, hopes to use Sweden and Finland as a "lever of pressure" to gain a voice in the game of the United States and Europe."
Earlier, Turkey opposed the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO on the grounds that these two countries "have shown their inefficiency in the fight against terrorism." Ankara has declared the PKK and the SNC terrorist organizations, called the Gulen movement the reason for the attempted coup in Turkey in 2016 and accused Stockholm and Helsinki of supporting members of the aforementioned groups. Although in general, in June last year, the three sides reached a consensus on the memorandum, the incident with the burning of the Koran again exacerbated their conflict.
On the issue of arms sales, Turkey continues to have a rift with the United States. Despite the objections of America and other NATO members, Ankara has purchased S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems from Moscow. In response, Washington excluded her from the project for the joint production of the F-35 fighter and refused to sell her this model. Turkey has been trying for a long time to get the US to buy the F-16, but too many American voices opposed it. During a recent trip to Turkey, Blinken hinted that Washington might approve the sale of the F-16 in response to Ankara's support for "NATO expansion to the north." However, Cavusoglu made it clear that these are "two independent issues" and it is "incorrect and unfair" to link them together.
Liu Zokui, Deputy Director and researcher at the Institute for European Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, offered his analysis on this. He said that Turkey is pursuing a pragmatic foreign policy, hoping to use its veto power on the "expansion of NATO" to protect its own interests in order to force other countries to make concessions. Ankara wants to take the opportunity to demonstrate the diplomatic authority of its government ahead of this year's general elections in order to win the support of voters. This step affected Turkey's relations with other NATO allies and worsened mutual strategic trust within the alliance. The conflict in Ukraine continues, and NATO is trying to "resurrect" its former power by force. Against this background, Turkey's actions are absolutely not what the United States and other Western states want to see.
Recently, Vice President of the United States Kamala Harris, German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock and other NATO leaders called on Turkey to approve the accession of Finland and Sweden to the alliance and "stop stalling."
"Preface" to conflicts
Stockholm and Helsinki are optimistic about the news of the resumption of negotiations between the three sides. According to CNBC, Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom said that the two Nordic countries are firmly moving towards the goal of "becoming members of NATO this year" and that "joining the North Atlantic Treaty" is only a matter of time. Finnish President Sauli Niinisto expects that candidates for membership will be officially accepted before the NATO summit in July. At the same time, he added that "the right to approve applications is not in our hands."
Zhao Ke believes that Turkey's resistance to the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO is more tactical than strategic in nature. Currently, Ankara has softened its position and is ready to continue negotiations. In addition, Washington has put a lot of pressure on her and intends to satisfy her demands on the issue of arms sales. If Turkey also receives promises of cooperation in counter-terrorism issues from Sweden and Finland, it "will not be greedy anymore."
Zhao Ke pointed out that with the increase in the number of participants and the scale of NATO, disagreements between member states will also intensify, and the internal contradictions of the organization will begin to deepen more. The Center, North, West and East of Europe differ greatly in terms of political concepts, security concepts and social systems. Thus, although the "northern expansion" of NATO is now the result of a compromise between all parties, in the long term it will only be a "preface" to a multitude of conflicts and contradictions, which in the future will greatly affect the collective actions and organizational effectiveness of the alliance.
"A long-term deadlock is not in Turkey's interests. Ankara understands that many problems are difficult to solve in a short period of time. If she persists, she will simply face even more pressure from within NATO. The alliance may even think about changing the principle of unanimous voting, and then it will be difficult for Turkey to achieve concessions," Liu Zokui said.
In his opinion, the impact and consequences of the "NATO expansion to the north" are multifaceted. The structure of European security may undergo further changes, and it will become more difficult for Russia to protect its "safe space". And this will exacerbate the security dilemma facing the EU.
Author: Li Jiabao (李嘉宝)
